FXUS66 KMTR 140545
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
945 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 400 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026
- Hazardous beach conditions continue through next week
- Widespread rain and strong winds return Sunday and into parts of
next week due to multiple storm systems.
- Turning much colder with mountain snow mid-week and onward
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 400 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026
(This evening through Saturday)
The short term weather period will be largely dominated by short
term ridging. High clouds (lower along the coast/valleys) will
continue to invade from the north ahead of what will be a start to
a more active stretch of weather.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 400 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Summary: A series of storm systems will arrive across the region
later this weekend and into next week. Note that while daily rain
chances are largely above 50-60%, rain will be intermittent and
more episodic nature (not all day). Heaviest rainfall is expected
with system number 1 on Sunday and into very early Tuesday. System
number 2 during the day on Tuesday featuring the strongest winds
(40-50 mph) over the next 7 days. System 2 will also have the
potential to produce accumulating mountain snow (near
people/infrastructure) and thunderstorm activity late Tuesday and
through Thursday. System 3 will be later in the week and likely
aggravate any impacts from the previous systems. As always, check
back to the forecast for updates.
Changes will begin Saturday night as the initial upper trough
(positively tilted) amplifies and dives southward. Increased
southwesterly flow ahead of this trough will encourage widespread
ascent--enhanced along southwest facing terrain. Largely showery
type conditions should be anticipated for most areas by sundown
Saturday. Hi-res NWP continues to support an initial delay to the
onset of the greatest convective chances on Saturday evening/night
and into Sunday.
With activity being scattered in nature, not all locations
will see rain even through parts of Sunday. Larger upper diffluent
and likely divergent flow aloft should translate to widespread
ascent. And this will signify 1 of 3 main storm systems forecast
to impact the area over the next 7 days.
The "heaviest" rainfall period will take place with system #1.
Southwest facing higher terrain will have a shot at exceeding even
NBM 75th percentile amounts thru 12Z Tuesday, especially across
the North Bay Coastal Ranges and Santa Cruz Mountains (values
around 3-4"), with the Santa Lucia Range (likely the big winners)
potentially seeing amounts as great as 4-6". For now the official
forecasts through late Monday for those selected areas are 2-3"
(isolated 3.5")" and 3-5" respectively. At this time the main
impacts are anticipated to be largely nuisance flooding, but there
is the potential for flooding of low-lying and regions of poor
drainage. Be sure to avoid flood prone areas, especially at night.
In addition, there will be adverse impacts for those with outdoor
activities as well as a potential threat for rockslides in areas
of steep terrain (thereby impacting nearby infrastructure). There
will likely be some wind on Monday afternoon, especially along the
Big Sur Coast, Santa Cruz Mountains, and Diablo Range, and
Gabilan Range with peak gusts of around 40 to near 45 mph.
Snow levels across the higher terrain of the North Bay (Cobb
Mountain, Mount Saint Helena) may drop such that light snow may
mix in here around midnight Tuesday morning. Accumulation isn't
expected with this system at this time, but we'll monitor for
future changes.
Storm system #2 on Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the greatest
potential for the strongest winds, especially across the Central
Coast and higher terrain regions across the board. The wind
forecast remains quite nuanced, however, and the strongest gust
will be highly dependent on whether a location is sheltered or
not. Generally westerly flow through 850mb is anticipated to swing
eastward with a pronounced corridor of winds through the mid-
levels. Largely 30 to 40 mph surface wind gusts are forecast with
there being a 70% chance for wind gusts across the higher terrain
of the Santa Lucia Range, Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, and
Gabilan Range Late Tuesday and into Wednesday. The current
forecast for these higher terrain features resides closer to the
higher end of the model envelope, with a 10% chance that winds of
greater than 50-60 mph could transpire. As such High Wind products
are not completely off the table but for now, we'll let later
shifts re-examine with a fresher suite of higher-res NWP. Regardless,
individuals with outdoor festivities, aviation (especially across
the Central Coast) should be prepared for blustery southwesterly
conditions that could become hazardous.
Additional rainfall is anticipated with storm system number 2,
however, activity will likely be more cellular in nature (except
along some of the more west facing slopes of higher terrain). As
such, the forecast spread is much higher with this portion of the
forecast due to the scattered nature of the rain activity. Given
the favored westerly wind direction, locales across the higher
terrain of the Central Coast should anticipate 1-4" with largely
1-2" across the Sonoma Coastal Range.
As we transition into system 3 the main themes will be the cold
conditions. Late Tuesday and into Wednesday will also feature the
start of a noteworthy cool down into next week as stout cold air
advection invades from the north/northwest. Current temperatures
into Wednesday morning are probable to fall into the mid to upper
30s and low 40s, areawide. It's been quite some time since it's
been this cool across the area and individuals will need to be
prepared for cold conditions. Those with sensitive crops, plants,
and vegetation will need be prepared for cold conditions.
Also, snow levels will drop down to just under 2600 feet across
the North Bay Mountains so Mount Vaca and Mount Hood will have a
shot for accumulating snow. In addition, the higher terrain of
the East Bay and Eastern Santa Clara Hills will have a chance to
see measurable snowfall. While snow may already be in progress
across the Santa Lucia's the window of greatest accumulation will
be later Tuesday and into Wednesday. Confidence in snowfall
amounts is low. The timing of the cold air (though it does appear
that it'll coincide with periods of precipitation) as well as
exact timing of convective elements will be refined in the coming
days. The current total snowfall forecast calls for 2-7" of snow
across the highest peaks of the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges,
with up to 0.50" of snow across the Diablo Range and trace amounts
across the North Bay. Some of the higher end scenarios, however,
paint around 5-10" of snowfall across the Santa Lucia and Gabilan
Ranges, 2-5" of snow across the North Bay Mountains and higher
terrain of the East Bay. In addition, areas across the Santa Cruz
Mountain, Mt. Tam, and some of the other higher peaks around 2500
feet will have an opportunity for measurable snowfall. Again, if
colder air filters in much faster and is deeper and if convective
elements (and there is a risk for thunderstorms capable of
producing widespread graupel) are more widespread, the higher end
snowfall scenarios are more probable to unfold. Be sure to check
back for updates to the forecast as additional information is
available.
Finally, storm system number 3 Thursday into Friday isn't
anticipated to bring much in the way of QPF, with averages largely
between 1/4" up to 1/2" as it stands right now. The cumulative
rainfall paired with cold conditions will certainly be impactful
to those without adequate shelter or heating.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 936 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026
Coastal stratus continues to push inland, though the cloud deck
has recently scattered out over the bay area terminals. This will
very likely be temporary before a more robust push of marine
stratus moves in overnight. Model guidance has generally backed
off on visibility impacts, but has also held onto the lower IFR
and MVFR ceilings longer into the day Saturday. Southerly winds
will gradually ramp up through the afternoon of a cold front that
will bring significant aviation weather impacts on Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings persisted for about 6 hours this
evening before recently scattering out. It's a little difficult
to tell how long this improvement will last as high clouds are
obscuring a clear satellite based view on the stratus. Webcams
show a pretty legit dry air intrusion that should last for a
couple hours before the cooler humid air brings more stratus back
in through the morning hours.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...I was a little surprised to see the low
clouds clear out this evening, but they will certainly return
overnight. A layer of overcast high clouds has moved in, which
will help limit fog formation overnight and the SNS TAF looks
better than it did at 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 936 PM PST Fri Feb 13 2026
A series of storms will bring hazardous conditions across the
coastal waters starting late Saturday. By Sunday expect periods of
heavy rain while a strong southerly breeze generates rough seas.
After frontal passage winds will shift to westerly and quickly
restrengthen to fresh to strong through mid week as a high
westerly swell arrives.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 945 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
Hazardous beach conditions are expected at Pacific Coast beaches,
excluding the northern Monterey Bay, through Saturday morning. A
moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an
increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents with
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of
the water to avoid hazardous surf, and NEVER turn your back on
the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-
509-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N
of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 PM PST Sunday for
Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 PM PST Sunday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Feb 14 02:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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