FXUS66 KMTR 250446
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
946 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend
- Dry weather continues this week; increasing potential for light
rain to return beginning of April
- Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior Mountains
Thursday into Friday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Adjusted temperatures up slightly today given a number of daily
high temperatures were set yesterday, with some more expected
today. H50 height field will continue to gradually weaken the
remainder of today and Wednesday. The net result of the lower
heights and slight increase in cloud cover Wednesday will be
around a 5 degree drop in daytime highs from todays values. The
progressive trough working to flatten heights on the backside of
the persistent ridge will also result in breezy to gusty winds at
times Wednesday afternoon, especially near the coast and elevated
interior locations. Increased coverage of marine stratus along the
coast is also likely, but will struggle to penetrate too far
inland with the upper ridging still holding it back mostly to the
coastline.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Not much change in the long term forecast through the weekend.
Pleasant weather while temperatures mostly run 10-20 degrees
above normal with generally light winds. The signal for a more
significant pattern change appears to be trending upwards with
ensembles and deterministic guidance coming more in line with one
another. Confidence is highest for at least temperatures to be
moderated closer to normal by the beginning of next week. The
deeper offshore troughing beginning Monday that would be more
favorable for potential rainfall also seems to be more likely than
at this time yesterday. This is a trend we'll be monitoring
closely. Attm the North Bay and the coastal ranges are in the best
position to get periods of wetting rain later Monday into
Tuesday, which does speak to the shallow nature of the moisture
source in the lower boundary layer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Currently VFR at all terminals. Low probability (20% or less) for
sub-VFR conditions to return to the terminals tonight with the
exception of HAF which is expected to be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR.
Diurnal winds will prevail with gusty conditions developing
tomorrow afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High
confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period. Stratus may
begin to sneak through the Golden Gate Gap as early as 09Z, but
confidence is low that it will reach the terminal. If a ceiling
were to develop, it would likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR.
Strong westerly winds will develop tomorrow, with about a 40%
chance for gusts to reach or exceed 35 knots.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY
and VFR and calm at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing
through the TAF period. If a ceiling were to develop, it would
likely be on the cusp of IFR/MVFR in the mid-to-late morning hours.
Diurnal winds will prevail, with gusty conditions developing
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 939 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Widespread hazardous conditions return tomorrow in the form of
strong to near gale northerly breezes. Gale force gusts should be
expected across the inner waters and outer waters with bays
experiencing conditions hazardous to small craft. Seas will build
to become rough to very rough as a result. Conditions will slowly
improve Friday and into the weekend with moderate northerly
breezes and moderate seas.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay-
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Mar 24 22:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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