FXUS66 KMTR 040427
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
827 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again
Thursday through Saturday
- Rain showers taper off this afternoon and evening
- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek; warming
trend and above normal temps late week into weekend
- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
KMUX radar shows a band of showers along the coastal regions,
particularly from Marin County south to the western part of Santa
Cruz County and extending off of Monterey Bay and the Big Sur
coast. The chance for thunderstorms is decreasing as solar heating
has ended, and the showers are expected to diminish through the
rest of the night.
DialH
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
(This evening through tonight)
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an area of low pressure
moving into our northern outer waters, just outside of 60nm and west
of Sonoma COunty. THe main band of rain has pushed inland with
showers lingering behind it. More to the west, where the low is,
cumulus clouds are forming along the cold front. Looking at the SPC
mesoanalysis page, just next to that region it shows around 100-150
J/kg of CAPE and some shear. The other convective parameters are not
as favorable such as positive LI and the lapse rates becoming more
stable. Think that these conditions will generally hold for the
afternoon as cloud cover filled ahead of the front. An isolated
rumble of thunder or two is possible over the waters, but generally
the thunder chance is less than 10%. Instead, we'll likely see
additional rainshowers activity as the front approaches. Precip
chances taper off this evening, with dry weather expected for most
areas by the late evening or early hours of Wednesday morning.
Behind the front, look for clear skies tonight and near seasonal low
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Wednesday, high pressure builds into the region leading to a stretch
of warmer and drier weather. Wednesday will be the start of the
warming trend; however, we'll still be leaning seasonable to
seasonably cool. Thursday into the weekend, high temperatures slowly
climb leading to temperatures becoming unseasonably warm by the
weekend where temperatures could be 10 to 15 degrees above their
normals.
In addition to that, tides continue to trend on the higher end.
Opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for the San
Francisco Bay shorelines from 6AM Wednesday through 1PM MOnday.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during this time
frame.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 359 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
With the upper low moving through, low clouds and showers /VFR-MVFR/
will linger through the evening. Any clearing tonight will result in
radiative cooling and patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight and Wednesday
morning. Dry Wednesday with VFR.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Lingering showers this evening otherwise
dry later tonight and Wednesday. Southwest wind near 10 knots
becoming easterly 5 to 8 knots mid to late evening then northwest
to west 10 to 14 knots Wednesday morning and afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR with low clouds and lingering
showers this evening otherwise dry later tonight and Wednesday.
Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable tonight
and Wednesday morning, then onshore 5 to 10 knots Wednesday
afternoon and early evening.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 825 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Low pressure will move east of the area tonight and become
replaced by a high pressure system through the week. Winds will
become northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through
the weekend. Dry conditions expected Wednesday into early next
week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at
Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday as long period (15-19 second)
northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves
and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may
linger into Wednesday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach
Hazards Statement.
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM PST Monday
for CAZ006-506-508.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Nov 3 20:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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