FXUS66 KMTR 272042
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1242 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026
- Well above normal temperatures through Saturday
- Slight cooling trend with 20% rain chances on Sunday
- Above normal warmth next week with increased chances for bursts
of offshore flow
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Very warm conditions continue this afternoon across the area as
offshore flow continues to envelop the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Despite increasing MaxT for today in a prior update, temperatures
continue to overachieve. The sky cover forecast has certainly
been challenging over the last 1-2 days and is likely a big reason
for higher-than-expected MaxTs. Given the current satellite
presentation, it seems prudent to adjust these grids downward to
support upward adjustments in MaxT for the rest of this afternoon
and into tomorrow. The fog threat seems limited tonight courtesy
of the PBL mixing that's helping to keep things on the warmer
side.
Saturday should see more in the way of cloud cover as shortwave
ridging is replaced with larger scale troughing. In fact, there
may be a few sprinkles across the North Bay during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday morning, but overall the potential for
measurable rainfall is greater on Sunday. Saturday will feature
another warm day. While the current forecast advertises widespread
70 and 80 degree weather, there's some potential for things to
get warmer than advertised if skies remain more clear through peak
heating. The spread is a little less across the North Bay where
the initial influx of cloudier conditions is expected earlier in
the day, along with an opportunity for showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm. Forecast soundings on Saturday (and on
Sunday) do indicate the potential for some mid-level instability,
however, the synoptic scale ascent is displaced to the north of
our region. For now, we'll advertise a 15-20% PoP for the North
Bay late Saturday and into Sunday with a 10% chance for
thunderstorms during the same time period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
As noted above, rain chances re-enter the forecast late Saturday
and into Sunday. These rain chances persist as late as the pre-
dawn hours on Monday. It is unlikely for continuous rain to fall
and most areas will remain rain-free. The best chance for
sprinkles/very light rain reside across the North Bay and along
the immediate coastline. Hi-res NWP (Rapid Refresh Forecast
System) do indicate this potential well and we'll hold onto a 20
PoP for parts of the area. Higher end rainfall scenarios paint a
few hundredths of an inch of rainfall as far south as the Central
Coast by Monday morning. At this time, the deterministic NBM seems
reasonable with rain amounts largely around a hundredth.
The noticeable change on Sunday will be the temperature drop. At
this time, we're anticipating that highs on Sunday will only be in
the 60s to low 70s as cloud cover and modest cold air advection
take shape.
The main weather theme next week will be the opportunity for
increased breezes, and a times, flow will be offshore. As the
upper air pattern turns more northwesterly aloft, this should
support shortwave troughs through the Sierra and into portions of
the Great Basin. In the wake of these features, surface high
pressure will build to the northeast, strengthening the
predominantly MSLP gradient.
925mb flow does increase with speeds averaging 30 to 40 knots and
the synoptic scale pattern does suggest that winds will at least
momentarily turn more offshore. Elevated winds are frequently more
probable at the higher terrain and across NW to SE oriented
passes/gaps, especially in these upper air pattern. For now,
edits were confined to these areas as confidence is greatest in
the strongest winds here. Wind gusts here may reside closer to 40
knots (45 mph) Wednesday through Friday of next week. While recent
rainfall has supported a modest green up, energy release
components (ERC's) are trending upward across our area. At this
time, it's unlikely that ERC values will exceed critical
thresholds for official fire weather products, but areas of
dormant/dead vegetation will have the potential to burn,
especially if there's favorable alignment of terrain and wind.
We'll continue to monitor and message this potential through the
weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 957 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026
VFR. High level clouds will continue through the remainder of the
TAF period. Some potential for low clouds overnight at STS and APC
but confidence is low that fog will develop. If fog does develop, it
is most likely along the San Pablo Bay/Delta region and may spread
northwards into the North Bay Valleys. Slight chance for drizzle at
STS overnight into early Saturday morning. Winds remain light and
onshore during the afternoon/evening to offshore/variable overnight.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Low chance of diminished visibility 12-18Z
but not anticipating fog to develop overnight. Winds shift onshore
during the day before becoming light and variable overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds shift onshore during the
afternoon/evening before easing and shifting southeasterly
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 856 AM PST Fri Feb 27 2026
Light, northerly to northeasterly winds continue across the
coastal waters. Locally moderate to fresh gusts continue through
Friday across the southern coastal waters. Drizzle is possible
across the northernmost coastal waters this weekend into early
next week and a five percent chance of thunderstorms on Saturday.
Low to moderate seas continue into next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1113 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for Friday, Feb 27th and Saturday, Feb 28th.
Location Feb 27th Record High Feb 28th Record High
Santa Rosa 90 in 1923 93 in 1923
San Rafael 74 in 1954 78 in 2025
Kentfield 79 in 1932, 1923 78 in 1929, 1923
Napa 80 in 1932 81 in 1929
Richmond 78 in 2020 77 in 1986
Livermore 79 in 1932 82 in 2022
San Francisco 78 in 2002, 1992, 1986 76 in 1992, 1986
SFO Airport 76 in 2020 73 in 1959
Redwood City 79 in 2025, 1932 77 in 2025
Half Moon Bay 78 in 1986 74 in 1954
Oakland Museum 78 in 2002 75 in 2025
San Jose 79 in 2020, 1992, 1932 77 in 2025, 1926
Salinas Airport 84 in 2025 81 in 2022
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Feb 27 14:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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