FXUS66 KMTR 061756
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1056 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 416 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
- Cooler temperatures set in today and continue into the
beginning of next week
- Chance for light rain late Monday into early Tuesday
- Warmer temperatures for the second half of next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Stratus is dissipating along the Central Coast with clear skies
expected through the rest of the day. Cooler high temperatures are
expected today with highs in the 70s to low 80s across the interior
and 50s to 60s along the coast. Gusty winds continue along the coast
and the marine environment with gusts between 20-35 mph possible
along the coast. The Beach Hazards Statement has been allowed to
expire as of 9AM PDT as long period swell decreases. Although beach
conditions are improving, continue to exercise caution and never
turn your back on the ocean in the event that a sneaker wave occurs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
(Today and tonight)
Strong thermal ridging aloft yesterday will gradually cool through
today and Sunday with further cooling occuring especially in the
lower levels of the atmosphere early next week. For today it will
feel noticeably less warm/hot inland with daytime highs near normal
for June 6th with 70s to around 80F inland. Nearest the coast and
bays daytime highs will reach the upper 50s and 60s. Forecast lows
are in the 40s to mid 50s for tonight. A few inland locations e.g.
the Eastern Santa Clara Hills and the southern interior of Monterey
and San Benito counties may reach the upper 30s tonight.
Northerly and onshore surface pressure gradients and winds continue,
at 2 am ACV-SFO is 7.0 mb and SFO-SAC is 3.9 mb. Gusty northwest
winds over the coastal waters continue to produce cold water
upwelling. Despite the high June sun angle and recent stratus free
sky, sea surface temps in our coastal waters are currently in the
lower to mid 50s, approx 1F to 2F below June normals.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
(Sunday through Friday)
Expect additional northwest winds, clear, dry conditions along
with a continuation of cooling aloft Sunday. Daytime highs will
be comfortable inland with 70s to 80F, near normal on Sunday.
Daytime highs nearest the coast and bays will be in the upper 50s
and 60s.
In the early Thursday morning June 4th AFD it was mentioned the
recent GFS and to some extent the ECMWF have been showing a trough
arriving with some measurable rainfall early next week. This remains
true, however forecast precipitation amounts have since continued
to vary in our forecast area with our forecast area located on the
southern edge of measurable rainfall/drizzle w/r/t this incoming
system. A plume of water vapor is moving across the Pacific coupled
to low pressure/frontal development, the development supported by
a strong late season meridional temperature gradient. The low/front
are moving along a gradient of warmer to cooler sea surface
temperature anomalies near the ongoing negative (cool) phase
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). With strong W-NW jet stream
winds behind this low the low/front will move rapidly toward the
Pacific Northwest and northern California early next week. Surface
to lower level cool air advection will push into precipitable
water ~ 1.50" per recent GFS as it moves across our area later
Monday, Monday night and Tuesday morning. Our current official
forecast is for < 0.10" mainly North Bay to parts of the East Bay,
but this bears watching for potentially greater areal coverage and
amounts of rain/drizzle. Rain is not common in June, it's normally
the 4th driest month of the year in our area. 15 years ago in June
2011 (4th and 28th) e.g. produced much above June normal rainfall
here, thus it can happen but it's a rare day for rain in June. The
PDO was negative in 2011 and it was La Nina in the equatorial Pacific.
At the very least keep in mind there's a chance of rain/drizzle here
in our area early next week. A night-time arrival of clouds and
frontal precipitation may benefit from radiative cooling above cloud
tops furthering upward vertical motion.
Dry weather then returns to our forecast area mid to late week.
Recent forecast model output has been indicating a strengthening
500 mb ridge generally to our northwest, along with a late week
surface southerly wind reversal possibly developing. This means
that compressional warming with the 500 mb ridge will be present,
but so will recently chilled (upwelling) sea surface temps for
the potential of natural air conditioning as an offset to warm/hot
temperatures mid to late next week, at least nearest the coast.
Please stay tuned to further updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Mostly VFR conditions anticipated throughout the day with
increasing onshore winds this afternoon and evening. High
confidence for VFR conditions to prevail across the North Bay, Bay
Area and South Bay through the TAF period with generally less
than a 20-30% probability of reaching MVFR conditions.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West-northwesterly winds are forecast to
increase through the afternoon and evening with gusts between
35-40 kts. Winds will begin to diminish late in the night and into
Sunday morning before increasing once again Sunday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO but with weaker
northwesterly winds.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to
increase this afternoon diminishing late this evening. Going with
more of a persistence forecast for tonight with MVFR ceiling
and/or visibilities returning either late tonight and moreso into
early Sunday morning. This is when we have between a 35-55%
probability of reaching MVFR conditions that are forecast to
improve to VFR by 16Z- 17Z Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 858 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Gale force gusts will prevail across the outer and inner waters
through early Sunday morning. As a result, very rough seas across
the outer waters and rough seas over the inner waters with
hazardous conditions for small craft through the remainder of the
weekend. However, conditions do begin to improve Sunday with
moderate seas and fresh northwesterly breezes for the beginning of
next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N
of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jun 6 12:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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