FXUS66 KMTR 291705
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1005 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
- Seasonally cool temperatures along with breezy afternoon winds
persist into the middle of the week
- Gradual warming trend begins towards the end of the upcoming
work week
- Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents through
Wednesday morning along the Pacific coast
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
(Tonight through Tuesday)
The upper level pattern over the are continues to predominately
be dominated by troughing across the western United States. This
will lead to seasonally cool temperatures through the work week.
As the main trough system shifts to the east, a short wave trough
will develop along the western periphery of the main trough
following the west coast. The short wave trough will develop into
a cut off low by Monday afternoon. Daytime highs today should be
largely similar to those seen yesterday, with perhaps a few
degrees of warming in the interior North and East Bays and a few
degrees of cooling across the warmest spots of southern Monterey
County.
The risk of minor coastal flooding continues through Monday night
along low-lying areas in the Pacific coast and the San Francisco and
San Pablo Bays. The combination of thermal expansion within the
Pacific ocean, a full moon on Monday, and southerly swell will
account for a little over half a foot of surge over the astronomical
tide. In addition, long-period southerly swell will continue to
increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents along
the Pacific coast, particularly at south and southwest facing
beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through
Wednesday morning, see the BEACHES section for more details. Never
turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Troughing will continue through the work week transitioning to
zonal flow for the upcoming weekend, allowing a gradual warming
trend to start in time for Independence Day. Towards the beginning
of next week, ensemble model clusters show agreement towards a
ridge building up across the Western United States, with the
interaction between the ridge and any troughing over the Eastern
Pacific, which would modulate how impactful the ridge ends up for
our region, still to be determined.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals with clearing
making its way down the Pacific Coast. Moderate to high confidence
in IFR-MVFR ceilings developing at bayshore and coastal terminals
respectively tonight. Diurnal winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northeasterly flow. Winds will
back through the morning to become westerly this afternoon. Moderate
confidence on a ceiling returning to the terminal tonight, likely on
the cusp of IFR/MVFR. Reasonable best case scenario is a donut
hole develops over the terminal with stratus remaining confined on
the north and west sides.
SFO Bridge Approach...The San Mateo Bridge Approach has low
probabilities (<30%) for developing a ceiling below FL045.
Reasonable best case scenario is clouds remain confined to the
terminal and northward.
Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Currently VFR with southerly flow at both
terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing at
SJC. Moderate confidence in an MVFR ceiling developing at OAK
tonight via a stratus feed through the Golden Gate Gap.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. An otter eddy in the
Monterey Bay will add some complexity and uncertainty in clearing
times this morning; however, clearing is expected to continue along
the Pacific Coast with high confidence in VFR by the afternoon.
High confidence in IFR ceilings returning to both terminals
tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1003 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Strong to very strong northerly breezes will continue through
Friday for the outer waters and the coastal jet region of Point
Reyes, creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Frequent
gale force gusts are expected across the northern outer waters
and along the Point Reyes coastal jet region. Moderate to fresh
northerly breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough to very rough
seas will continue through Wednesday before abating to become
moderate to rough Thursday into Friday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the Pacific Coast
Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell
returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves
and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing
beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically
for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of
the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will
run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers,
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never
turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 29 10:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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