FXUS66 KMTR 050011
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
359 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek;
warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend
- Coastal Flooding along Bayshore locations at high tide now
through Saturday
- Hazardous beach conditions Thursday through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1251 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
(This evening through Thursday night)
Low pressure continues to gradually progress southwards along the
California Coast with the center passing by the Monterey/SLO County
line this afternoon. Ridging rebuilds over California tonight into
tomorrow which will bring a return of warmer temperatures. The
initial ridge is moderated by a weak shortwave trough that pushes
inland and deepens over Southern California. For us, that means high
temperatures only warm a few degrees on Thursday with highs climbing
back into the upper 60s to mid 70s across the interior and 60s along
the coast. This is seasonal to slightly above normal (5 degrees) for
early November. Morning low temperatures will be in the 40s across
the interior and low 50s across the higher elevations. Expect
overcast skies returning by late this evening and continuing through
late Thursday morning. Dry conditions continue through the duration
of the forecast period. Diurnally breezy conditions with gusts
peaking between 20-30 mph continue during the afternoon/evening for
mountain gap/passes (Salinas Valley, Altamont Pass), the higher
elevations, and along the coast.
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion due
to El Nino will result in coastal flooding concerns across Bayshore
locations across the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At
the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft
above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, including 1.2
ft of surge residual that will enhance the astronomical tide and
flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later
along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay,
respectively. Hazardous beach conditions are expected Thursday
through Saturday due to an active sea state. A Beach Hazards
Statement is in effect Thursday morning to Saturday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1251 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Ridging dominates much of the upcoming long term forecast with a
warming trend and return of above normal temperatures anticipated.
High temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s with pockets on low
80s across the warmest locations (interior Central Coast, southern
Santa Clara Valley). This is around 1Dry conditions
expected today into early next week.
0 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Temperatures remain consistent through early to mid
next week when we see our first indication that troughing/unsettled
weather are returning. Tuesday to Wednesday looks to be a transition
day with ridging exiting east and troughing building in. This will
bring cooler, more seasonal temperatures back with highs dropping
into the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensembles are in
favor of rain returning and continuing through mid to late month.
With a wetter second half of the month possible, now would be a good
time to ensure your gutters are cleared out, outdoor items are
secured, and any other winter preparations are completed.
Coastal flooding concerns continue through Monday with the
combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge
resulting in minor flooding in Bayshore locations along the San
Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tidal
gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW)
at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38
AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM
Sunday 11/8, and 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM
Monday 11/9. These predictions include up to 1.2 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and
through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-
period swell Thursday through Saturday will create hazardous
conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 359 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
High pressure returns during the 00z TAFs. High clouds will move
in from the west tonight into Thursday morning. At least partial
radiative cooling will likely result in patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight
and Thursday morning. Otherwise dry weather continues with VFR.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Wind westerly 15 to 25 knots early to mid
evening then light northeast wind tonight through Thursday morning.
West to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots late Thursday afternoon and
evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds 10 knots shifting to
light southeasterly tonight, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 246 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
Quiet weather on tap for the rest of the week high pressure
building into the region. Northerly winds become moderate to fresh
and slacken to gentle to moderate breezes for Sunday. Moderate to
rough seas prevail through the weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 329 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
Thursday through Saturday as long period (14-18 second)
westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for
sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to
16 feet. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning,
pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure.
Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your
back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may linger into Sunday
and Monday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach Hazards
Statement.
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Saturday
evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-
Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Nov 4 16:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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