FXUS66 KMTR 232351
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
351 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon
- Widespread North Bay rainfall returns tonight into Tuesday
- Warming and drying trend kicks off Wednesday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 200 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)
High clouds streaming over the region ahead of the incoming
weather system. Comfortable temperatures in the 60s across the
region with the thickest clouds over the North Bay. Moist and mild
southerly flow this evening in warm frontal structure but no
excessively strong winds forecast given the lack of cold
advection. A few stray showers late this afternoon and early
evening near the Mendocino county line otherwise mainly dry
through 10 pm tonight. Warm frontal light rains develop overnight
across the North Bay, especially Sonoma county and the coastal
hills down to Marin. Clouds and southerly winds will keep temps
mainly in the 50s overnight. Wet roads for the early morning
commute mainly for areas north of the Golden Gate.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 200 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Weak to moderate AR and associated warm frontal structure will
keep steady rains pointed from San Francisco northward from 12-18z
Tuesday morning with the heaviest rains continuing across Sonoma
county. Light rain will gradually shift southward across San Mateo
county and the Santa Cruz mountains during the day Tuesday with
some light rain pushing into the East Bay. The Santa Clara Valley
and points southward will see little or no rain with this system
on Tuesday. Rain will continue through the evening commute for
much of the Bay Area with wet roads but generally light winds. Rainfall
totals by late Tuesday night of 1-3 inches for the North Bay with
some some localized 4 inch totals in the Sonoma hills and around
Mt Tamalpais. Rain amounts around 1 inch in San Franciso/Oakland
with amounts tapering off to around 0.25 for San Jose. Santa Cruz
mountains may top off around 1.5 inches but the weakening nature
of the system looks to keep amounts generally light for the Santa
Cruz mountains with only 0.10-0.25 for the Santa Lucia hills in
Monterey County. So in general expect beneficial late February
rains from this system with the only place for some possible
nuisance flooding across portions of Sonoma county. However, no
signs of the system stalling or intensifying beyond Tuesday
evening so confidence remains high for no widespread flooding
impacts.
Any lingering showers end by 12z Weds with perhaps some soupy
morning fog in the moist airmass. High pressure then builds with
highs warming back into the 60s and lower 70s with mild overnight
lows generally in the 50s at least through Saturday.
Next feature of interest is a weak cutoff low that could impact
the region later Sunday into Monday. The main impact would to
drop temperatures back down to more seasonable levels with a
slight chance of instability showers though no significant
rainfall is forecast. Long range trends beyond that keep the
pattern somewhat active but not seeing any signs of notable March
storms or rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 351 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
VFR continues with exception of a few areas of low clouds /MVFR-
IFR/ along the immediate coastline this afternoon. Cloud layers
increase southward tonight with rain developing north to south
tonight and Tuesday as well. Conditions MVFR-VFR Tuesday with
southerly winds, then winds shifting to westerly Tuesday evening
and night.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR tonight, MVFR in rain Tuesday. Light
northeast wind into the evening becoming light southeasterly
tonight and Tuesday morning. South-southeasterly wind increasing
to 15 to 25 knots Tuesday, decreasing to 10 knots Tuesday evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR tonight and Tuesday. Variable to
onshore winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 knots
tonight and Tuesday morning. Southeasterly winds 7 to 15 knots
Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
Light rain and breezier winds are approaching the northern waters
and will spread farther south Monday night through Tuesday night.
Winds stay breezy as the rains pass through the water, but ease
by Wednesday. Dry weather prevails late for the second half of the
week with light seas.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Tuesday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Feb 23 16:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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