FXUS66 KMTR 131900
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
- Cooling trend continues today, warming and drying trend resumes
Thursday
- Breezy and gusty winds this afternoon and evening, then
returning Friday into the weekend
- Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Skies are clearing across the region with a decaying cold front, the
fringes of an upper level trough coming across the Pacific
Northwest, helping to mix out the lower levels across the Bay Area
and Central Coast. Some patches of stratus linger across the San
Mateo Peninsula and the Monterey Bay region, but these patches
should mix out through the afternoon hours. High temperatures remain
seasonally average to cool with temperatures in the 70s to the lower
80s in the inland valleys, the middle 60s to lower 70s close to the
bays, and the upper 50s to the lower 60s near the Pacific coast. A
strengthening pressure gradient will develop as a Pacific high
opposes a low developing in the Great Basin, with northwesterly
gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour developing this afternoon and
evening along the coast, through favorably oriented gaps and
valleys, and across the ridgelines. Winds should diminish late this
evening in to the post-midnight hours on Thursday.
For Thursday, mild ridging should settle into the region and allow
for a gradual warming trend, with highs in the inland valleys
reaching the upper 70s to the upper 80s. Some low clouds could
develop on the western side of the San Mateo Peninsula into the
Monterey Bay region, with the stratus dissipating through the
morning as an onshore breeze forms in the afternoon, although wind
speeds should not be as strong as today's winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Temperatures on Friday should be similar to those seen on Thursday,
but the winds could start picking up again as an upper level trough
develops from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest,
increasing the pressure gradient and causing gusts to rise to the 25
to 35 mph range along the coast, through gaps and passes, and at the
ridgelines. Through the weekend, a part of that trough breaks off
from the westerly flow and starts to stall over the Northern
Rockies, further reinforcing the strong winds across the region and
especially at the favored regions. On Saturday, NBM probabilities
show good chances (above 80% probabilities) for wind gusts above 40
mph along the coastal regions; along the ridgelines of the Mayacama,
Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains; and through the Salinas Valley
between Salinas and King City. Wind Advisories may end up being
necessary Friday through the weekend, as confidence in the extent
and strength of the winds increases through the next couple of days.
Beach Hazards Statements or High Surf Advisories may also be
required due to strong and dangerous wind-driven waves.
As for temperatures, the incoming trough will interrupt the warming
trend with temperatures on Saturday and Sunday dropping back into
the 70s to lower 80s in the inland valleys. For the early part of
next week, the warming trend will resume as upper level ridging
returns to the West Coast. There continues to be some variability in
the ensemble space depending on how that upper level ridging
interacts with the lingering trough over the Rockies. The NBM seems
to be running a little warm in that ensemble space, so in
coordination with our neighbors and national centers, we've dropped
the high temperature forecasts by around 3 degrees across our
forecast area for the early part of next week. For next Tuesday and
Wednesday, the current forecast calls for highs in the middle 80s to
lower 90s in the inland valleys, the upper 70s to the middle 80s
close to the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s near the Pacific
coast. Judging from a close analysis of the ensemble clusters, the
wiggle room for those inland highs looks to be around 3 to 5 degrees
in either direction. The coastal and Bayshore highs are harder to
say, particularly if the marine layer does return to those regions,
as the resolution of the global ensemble models does not allow for a
good depiction of those marine layer impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM PDT Wed May 13 2026
Patchy stratus is clearing across the Bay Area and Central Coast
with all sites expected to be VFR this afternoon/evening. Stratus is
expected to be patchy tonight with the highest confidence in a late
stratus return for coastal sites and along the bay shoreline. Wind
gusts pick up rapidly this afternoon and evening with gusts to
around 25-35 knots along the coast and 20-25 knots across portions
of the interior. Winds decrease overnight with breezy conditions
expected again during the afternoon/evening tomorrow.
Vicinity of SFO...Strong west to northwest winds are expected
through this evening with gusts between 25-35 knots. Winds ease
overnight but are expected to pick up again tomorrow
morning/afternoon. There is a slight chance for stratus to reach SFO
after 10Z but confidence was too low to include in TAF given a much
drier airmass expected to move in.
SFO Bridge Approach....Generally similar to SFO but gusts look to be
closer to 25-30 knots.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus will continue to dissipate through
late this morning with VFR expected this afternoon/evening. Moderate
confidence that stratus will reach MRY late tonight but confidence
is lower that it will reach SNS. Breezy west to northwest winds are
expected this afternoon/evening with gusts to around 20 knots
expected. Winds ease overnight with gusty winds to return tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1047 AM PDT Wed May 13 2026
Hazardous marine conditions expected late week through the
weekend. Winds will continue to increase through the work week
with strong winds and near gale-force gusts possible today.
Persistent gale-force winds affect the outer waters beginning
Thursday, with gale force to severe gale winds expected to become
widespread by Friday. Occasional storm force gusts are possible
across the inner waters this weekend. Very high wind driven seas
between 12 to 17 feet are expected. Winds stay hazardously strong
through the weekend, but ease early to mid next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon
Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed May 13 12:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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