Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 052357
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
457 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

 - Cooler temperatures through Tuesday before a warming trend 
   arrives for the second half of the week

 - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight 
   before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1218 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026
(This evening through Monday night)

Coastal stratus continues to retreat to the coast early this 
afternoon with mid-to-high level clouds also exiting to the east. 
Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to range from the upper 50s 
to lower 60s along the immediate coastline, middle 60s to middle 70s 
near the bays, middle 60s to lower 80s in the inland valleys, and 
upper 60s to lower 90s in the warmest interior spots. These 
temperatures are generally up to 10 degrees below seasonal averages 
as a shortwave through continues to impact the region. Breezy 
onshore winds are also forecast to develop this afternoon with gusts 
up to 20 to 25 mph through gaps, passes, and the Salinas Valley.

Once again, stratus will return to the coast late this 
afternoon/early evening and return into the inland valleys overnight 
through Monday morning before retreating back to the coast by Monday 
afternoon. Troughing aloft will maintain cooler conditions once 
again on Monday with similar afternoon temperatures as today. A few 
passing high clouds are also likely. Similar stratus pattern is 
expected once again Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1218 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026
(Tuesday through next Saturday)

A gradual warming trend will persist through the second half of the 
week as high pressure strengthens over the Desert Southwest. 
However, persistent onshore flow will maintain a modest marine layer 
and keep conditions near the coast cooler than inland areas. 
Overall, HeatRisk look to remain in the Minor category with isolated 
pockets of Moderate in the warmest interior locations. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The marine layer is about 1,500 feet deep and stratus will begin
pushing inland over the next six hours. With a similar pattern as
yesterday, the TAFs relied heavily on the persistence forecast 
for ceiling arrival and clearing times.

Vicinity of SFO...The Peninsula mountains are doing there job to
keep the terminal clear for now. Stratus will likely fill in
through the Golden Gate, impacting the East Bay this evening 
before wrapping around to reach SFO later tonight. The exact 
timing is tricky, but expect MVFR ceilings to arrive sometime 
between 06Z and 12Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Clouds will likely impact
the approach 1-2 hours before reaching the terminal tonight.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MRY already has MVFR ceilings and will
keep them through the night. They are knocking on the door at SNS
too. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 451 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Gentle to moderate northwest breezes persist through Monday as the 
cold front continues its push eastward. Winds increase to a fresh to 
strong breeze Monday night with near gale force gusts possible 
Tuesday late afternoon. As a result, moderate seas begin to build 
across the outer coastal waters followed by the inner coastal
waters. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt 
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...RGass

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jul 5 20:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service