FXUS66 KMTR 151213
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
513 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
- Breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend
- Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend
- Elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across the
interior with low humidities and strong gusts
- Blustery winds for all beaches Friday into the weekend and hazardous
beach conditions for west facing beaches conditions Friday
through Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
(Friday through Sunday Night)
Zonal flow today with high pressure over the Pacific and upper level
troughing sliding into the northern PacNW marking the start of an
inside slider pattern. Northwesterly winds will increase throughout
the day with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the
higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. The
Salinas Valley will see an increase in winds as well, with gusts up
to 25 to 35 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. The
forecast highs for Friday will be similar Thursday's, perhaps a few
degrees warmer.
Saturday into Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough digs and
deepens into the intermountain west and into then into the Great
Basin. This will bring an additional burst of winds, which will have
a more north-northwest to northerly component. Peak gusts up to 35
to 45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and
ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. Locally higher perhaps
close to 50 mph are possible for points at the immediate coast and
the highest ridge points. The Salinas Valley will be gusty too, with
gusts up to 25 to 45 mph favoring the northern half of the valley.
Elsewhere, northerly winds may gust up to 20 to 35 mph. Timing for
the strongest winds currently looks to be between late Saturday
morning through early Sunday morning, peaking Saturday afternoon
through the evening. Northerly winds, means a burst of drier air
coming our way leading to elevated fire weather conditions for the
interior Bay Area and Central Coast.
The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves
eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the
day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to
travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern
Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the
temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance
shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms
southwest of CA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
(Monday through Thursday)
The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves
eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the
day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to
travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern
Pacific. Agree with the prior shift's thinking in that the
temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance
shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms
southwest of CA.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
VFR conditions everywhere except for KHAF, KMRY, and KSNS where MVFR
ceilings will continue through the late morning. Widespread W to NW
breezy winds prevail from late Friday morning into the night as the
pressure gradient tightens. Winds will reach their maxima in the
afternoon with a few terminals experiencing moderate gusts. Slight
decrease in winds are expected overnight but they should increase in
strength again by Saturday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Biggest threat are the
moderate westerly winds with gusts that may exceed 30 kts Friday
afternoon. Winds diminish slightly overnight as well as the wind
gust threat, but are expected to increase again Saturday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings are forecast through the
morning before mixing out by 17-19Z (10am-12pm PDT). Onshore winds
increase by the afternoon and decrease slightly overnight. Low
confidence on whether MVFR ceilings will return early Saturday
morning, though KMRY may see a few to scattered low-level cloud
deck.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
Widespread Gale-force northwest gusts have built across the
waters, and look to strengthen through the weekend. Coastal jets
will result in locally stronger gusts with occasional storm-
force gusts possible. Strong wind driven seas are expected to be
between 12 to 19 feet. The strong winds peak on Sunday and will
steadily diminish into the beginning of the next work week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026
Gusty offshore winds are building and strengthen through the
weekend, leading to elevated fire concerns. Peak gusts above 30 mph
for most areas are expected, with around 40 to 50 mph along the
coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low
daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the interior
regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity
recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday
before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a
modest offshore flow continues into the work week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 250 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for west facing beaches
along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM Friday through 9 AM Monday due to
strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously
strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming,
boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking
waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical
injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong
along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and
increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by
reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your
back on the ocean.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 3 PM PDT this afternoon through
Monday morning for CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday
for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this
afternoon for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry
Bay.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt
Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri May 15 08:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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