FXUS66 KMTR 060451
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
951 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
- Cool temperatures and cloudy with light rain ending this
morning
- Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of the week
through the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 504 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Some isolated light rain has produced a few hundredths of an inch of
rainfall for some elevated interior portions of the East Bay and
South Bay, with drier air filling in behind the exiting system to
the east early this afternoon. Expect a mix of sun and clouds
through the remainder of the day and early evening. A robust marine
layer will fill in across much of our area overnight, with rapid
clearing by late morning into early afternoon Wednesday, as the
ridging pattern takes hold. Temperatures Wednesday will increase
around 5-10 degrees higher than todays values.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 504 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Confidence is high in ridging maintaining its hold on our synoptic
pattern through the extended forecast and beyond. The warmup that
sets in tomorrow is gradual through the remainder of the work week,
with a more notable increase this upcoming weekend. As the ridge
becomes more prominent by the end of the week we'll see the marine
layer retreat back closer to the coast and compress, but not all the
way offshore. Ensemble clusters are relatively tightly packed
through mid-May wrt the ridging pattern and above normal
temperatures. Our entire area is currently in Minor HeatRisk on
Saturday with portions of our interior in Moderate HeatRisk Sunday
and Monday. That trend should persist past the current forecast
period as well. However, there are hints for some relief in the same
ensemble clusters with troughing in the E Pacific at our latitude
headed into the 3rd week of May.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 943 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026
Elevated stratus remains locked in over the region, but there a
"sloshy" nature to it as the edges ebb and flow. Not a standard
stratus deck. As such, conf is lower. Through the first few hours
of the TAF will keep it elevated, but then enough cooling
overnight should lower CIGs to MVFR most areas. MVFR through mid-
late Wed AM and then VFR (except HAF). Early return tomorrow
evening for places like MRY.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR with SFO in a bit of a clouds "hole" at the
moment. Expect this to fill in with MVFR developing and then last
through 18-20Z Wed.
SFO Bridge Approach...Solid stratus deck 2500-4000ft.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Elevated stratus lowering to MVFR. VFR
re-developing by early Wed afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 925 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026
High pressure over the eastern Pacific will maintain gentle to
moderate northerly breezes over the coastal waters through early
Thursday. Fresh to strong northerly breezes develop Thursday
afternoon through the weekend leading to locally hazardous
conditions and building seas with steep fresh swell.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue May 5 22:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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