FXUS66 KMTR 120719
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1219 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- Hot and dry through today for interior locations with a
moderate risk of heat-related illnesses
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay
Area
- Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along
south- and southwest-facing beaches this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
(Today and tonight)
GOES-West nighttime microphysics imagery reveals a much-welcomed
surge of stratus returning to Pacific coastal locations since the
evening hours. This has resulted in broken/overcast skies to
communities such as Monterey, Salinas, Santa Cruz, and Half Moon
Bay, as well as the western half of San Francisco. Areas of fog
have also been reported. Some locations in the Santa Cruz
Mountains are running 10-15 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours
ago. Following a hot day for interior areas, temperatures have
been running generally a few to several degrees warmer.
Upper-level ridge remains the dominate synoptic feature over the
eastern Pacific. For Friday, areas covered in Moderate HeatRisk
will be primarily reduced to interior locations of the East Bay
and South Bay. For these locations, the Heat Advisory continues
through Friday evening. Temperatures will continue to moderate
region-wide on Saturday.
High tide flooding will occur nightly along the Bayshore through
the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon
and lunar perigee on Sunday, and about 7 inches of additional
tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion
of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level
Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s
will add up to bring tides up to 1.8 feet above normal through
the weekend. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in
January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up
being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current
record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)
A short-wave trough will cut along the outer periphery of the
eastern Pacific ridge over the weekend. This will promote further
cooling for interior locations into the second half of the
weekend. Coastal locations can expect the usual June stratus.
While temperatures will return closer to middle-June climatology,
the main hazards will be the southerly swell along the coast, plus
the coastal flooding associated with the high tides
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026
A southerly surge of low clouds will continue to work its way
north up the coastline overnight. Generally light onshore winds
and a shallow marine layer should limit inland extent of low
clouds overnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings and reduced visibility will
impact primarily coastal sites overnight into Friday morning,
including the Monterey Bay terminals and KHAF where localized fog
has developed. Low clouds should spill through the Golden Gate,
although confidence in the extent across SF Bay is lower. Low
clouds should recede to the coastline by late Friday morning, then
increase again Friday night. Winds Friday will be moderate
onshore. Inland, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period.
Vicinity of SFO...Light west-northwesterly winds will prevail
overnight. Stratus will flow through the Golden Gate into the SF
Bay overnight with a few low clouds moving over the airspace.
Moderate confidence that it will remain VFR through the TAF
period. By Friday early afternoon, winds will become west-
northwesterly and moderate (10-15 kts). A similar pattern will set
up for Friday night with additional low clouds moving into SF
Bay.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Primarily LIFR ceilings overnight with
periods of IFR as well. Visibility will also be reduced but
confidence in fog developing with visibility less than 1SM is
lower. Conditions should improve by late Friday morning with
generally VFR conditions in the afternoon. Light onshore winds
overnight, increasing to 8-15 kt Friday afternoon. Low stratus
resulting in IFR conditions is expected to return Friday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1012 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026
The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Eastern
Pacific and lower pressure over California is supporting a
moderate to fresh northwest breeze across the northern coastal
waters. Rough seas will gradually subside through the weekend as
the winds decrease.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head
out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other
waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in
people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to
pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard
if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers,
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn
your back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...Tangen
MARINE...Tangen
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jun 12 04:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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