FXUS66 KMTR 281153
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
353 AM PST Wed Jan 28 2026
...New AVIATION, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 AM PST Wed Jan 28 2026
- Warm, dry weather and weak offshore flow return today and
continue into the beginning of the weekend
- Beach Hazards Statement for increased risk of sneaker waves
- Next chance for rain appears to be late Saturday into Sunday,
primarily for the North Bay, with little to no impacts
expected
- Minor King Tide coastal flooding possible Friday through Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 256 AM PST Wed Jan 28 2026
(Today and tonight)
Light scattered rain continues along the weakening but stalled cold
front across the Bay Area and the coastal ranges from Marin County
south to Santa Cruz county overnight with less than a .10" expected
between now and sunrise before shutting down entirely. Increasing
upper level height fields and thickness values quickly respond to
the exiting trough to the east today with a building, positively
tilted ridge producing weak offshore flow once again for the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Temperatures today will tick
a few degrees higher area wide with partially clearing skies from
north to south over the course of the day. Overnight lows will be
cooler than the more mild temps we woke up to yesterday due to less
cloud cover and more efficient radiational cooling into early
Thursday morning, expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 256 AM PST Wed Jan 28 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)
The stable pattern and weak offshore flow will produce very pleasant
weather across our area through Saturday. The larger scale
longwave synoptic pattern remains active but becomes increasingly
more amplified by the weekend with a deep, sharpening trough well
offshore over the EPac, while the ridging becomes more amplified
over the interior west. By the time the trough axis starts making
progress toward the California coast, it weakens and lifts farther
north. Currently the signal for measurable precipitation is
weaker than what we had pass through yesterday and last night, so
impacts are expected to be minimal with any rain that does
materialize late Saturday into Sunday morning, mostly in the North
Bay. We may see some King Tide coastal flooding Friday through
Sunday as well, however it will not be as impactful as what we saw
last month, with minimal storm surge added to the forecasted
heights given the weak disturbance offshore.
Deterministic guidance suggests persistent highly amplitude
ridging to dominate into next week as well (in line with the CPC
outlook). However an unusual retrograding upper level cutoff-low
abandoned by the jet stream over the dessert southwest has plenty
of time to shift and keep things interesting as it moves
southwest offshore over SOCAL the second half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 AM PST Wed Jan 28 2026
Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. It will be a
transient morning as a cold front moves east across the area
bringing with it light rain showers. Outside of HAF which has an
LIFR ceiling, MVFR ceilings are possible through the morning for
APC, OAK, SFO, and STS. LVK, MRY, SJC, and SNS will likely remain in
the low-end VFR category outside of a passing rain shower which may
briefly reduce ceilings/visibilities. Light diurnal winds are
expected. The return of warmer and drier conditions will lead to low
probabilities of sub-VFR conditions returning tonight. The thing to
watch for will be radiational fog either being advected from the
Central Valley or developing in the North Bay - confidence is too
low at this time to include in the TAF.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with northerly flow and light rain.
The MVFR ceiling will likely persist through mid-morning with high
confidence in VFR prevailing by this afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and
VFR and calm at SNS. Moderate to high confidence on VFR prevailing
through the TAF period. The only exception would be if a passing
rain shower briefly brought ceilings/visibilities down.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM PST Wed Jan 28 2026
Light rain showers are possible through the morning with a cold
frontal passage. Gentle to moderate northerly/offshore breezes
will prevail through Friday before winds veer to become southerly
over the weekend. Moderate seas will build to become rough for the
inner waters and outer waters today with very rough seas expected
tomorrow for the northern waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 347 AM PST Wed Jan 28 2026
Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches
tonight and persist through Friday morning. Long period westerly
swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong
rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay
off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure,
remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf, and never turn
your back on the ocean!
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 359 AM PST Tue Jan 27 2026
Long period swells with low wave heights begin to arrive on
Wednesday, but wave heights begin to increase that night while
periods stay long leading to hazardous conditions. A Beach
Hazards Statement has been issued from 09 PM Wednesday through 09
AM Friday. Significant wave heights look to range from 14 to 19
feet. The main threat will be from sneaker waves and rip currents.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Friday morning
for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PST Friday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jan 28 06:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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