FXUS66 KMTR 252022
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1222 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
- Warmer and drier conditions expect through Saturday, warmest
on Friday afternoon
- Cooler conditions arrive by Sunday and into Monday with a low
end probability for light rain
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Another warm and muggy day expected across the region with
temperatures already in the low to upper 60s. The mugginess is due
to PWAT values up to 1.25" as a ridge of high pressure builds in
from the south. Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures are
expected to be in the low to mid 70s across interior portions of the
Central Coast.
Overnight, low clouds will return to much of the region with
Thursday morning's low temperatures forecast to be in the upper 40s
to low 50s across the North Bay and low 50s across the remainder of
the region. By Thursday afternoon, expecting some of the low clouds
to dissipate, yet mid and high level clouds will remain likely
through much of the day. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s
to low 70s in the North Bay, coastal areas, and much of the greater
San Francisco Bay Area. The warmest temperatures are likely across
the interior Central Coast where there is a greater than 75%
probability of exceeding 75 deg F (yet less than a 25% to exceed 80
deg F). This is as the ridge aloft continued to strengthen across the
Bay Area and Central Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
The warming and drying trend will extend into Friday when we are
expecting the warmest temperatures across the region. Temperatures
will warm into the low-to-mid 70s across the North Bay and bayshore.
Meanwhile, we can expect mid-to-upper 70s across the remainder of
the region. There is a 50%-75% probability for exceeding 80 deg F in
the Santa Cruz Mountains and interior areas of the Central Coast.
Thus, HeatRisk will reach the minor category on Friday across much
of the region. Slight cool down on Saturday as an upper level cutoff
low begins to approach the region from the west. However, Saturday
will remain 5-12 degrees above seasonal averages.
Cooler, unsettled weather returns Sunday across the North Bay and
region-wide by Monday as the cutoff low moves across the region.
However, no meaningful precipitation is expected across the region.
The NBM only has up to a 20% probability of seeing greater than
0.25" across the North Bay and generally 10% in the Santa Lucia
Range and Santa Cruz Mountains in a 24-hour period ending 4 AM
Monday morning (up to 15% in the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa
Lucia Range ending at 4 PM Monday afternoon).
By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a short wave ridge will build
in behind the exiting mid/upper level trough. Thus, slight warming
and drying trend is expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast to continue thanks to onshore
flow. A diffuse frontal boundary will creep southward before
losing definition later this afternoon and into tonight. While
rain isn't expected, cigs are forecast to lift (with a potential
period of VFR) late this afternoon and even into the pre-dawn
hours on Thursday, though confidence in the exact evolution
remains low to medium. KSTS, KAPC, and KLVK seem to stand the best
chance for a 4-8 hour window of VFR after 00Z. During this time
period, clouds are probable to scatter such that the stage will be
set for the development of BR and potentially FG. Eventually, this
BR/FG could lift into an IFR ceiling by sunrise Thursday morning.
Elsewhere, a low-confidence MVFR ceiling forecast remains in
tact, though trends in satellite imagery will need to be
monitored. Refinements to the current TAF set are probable,
especially at KSJC. Outside of largely diurnal winds, SW'ly winds
will become more N'ly, especially across the North Bay.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR is forecast to prevail, though some
guidance suggests that VFR may transpire during the busy evening
push after 00Z Thursday. Confidence is high enough to advertise
IMC and so impacts are still anticipated. Wind direction is
anticipated to vary through the TAF cycle, but speeds largely below
10 knots should equate to flexibility in airport takeoff/landing
configs. High-end MVFR/occasional VFR is forecast to yield to
borderline-IFR ceilings between 10 and 15Z on Thursday, most
certainly impacting the AM peak traffic period. VFR is forecast
to return Thursday afternoon, but with low confidence.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Occasional breaks in
ceilings, but prolonged period of VAPS are not expected over the
next 24 to 30 hours.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with variable wind
directions; speeds less than 10 knots. There is low to medium
confidence that MVFR and IFR stratus returns between 00-03Z, with
especially at KMRY. Depending on the magnitude of onshore flow,
refinements to timing of the onset of stratus may be needed. At
this time, VFR is anticipated to return around 15Z Thursday for
KSNS, but less likely at KMRY. There are some hints at visibility
reductions below 2 miles, however, this should be short-lived.
Still, future TAF sets may opt to advertise intermittent
visibility below 2 miles.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 857 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
Moderate seas will prevail through the weekend. Moderate
northerly breezes will prevail through Friday, backing to become
northwesterly by the weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Bain
MARINE...RGass
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 25 12:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
|