FXUS66 KMTR 151113
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
413 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
- Near normal temperatures continue today and Thursday before
temperatures warm Friday into the weekend
- Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher
elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning
- Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday
into the beginning of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
(Today and tonight)
A weak fetch of onshore flow at the surface is struggling to
maintain patches of low stratus along the SF Peninsula and the
Salinas Valley late tonight. Progressive ridging aloft has resulted
in very dry air in the mid/upper levels, that will persist into the
early afternoon. A sharpening trough to our north will reach the
North Bay tonight behind the exiting ridge, with a weak associated
moisture gradient out ahead. However, increasing low and mid-level
onshore flow will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover this
afternoon. Breezy west winds out ahead of the dry surface boundary
will eventually become northerly overnight as the upper trough
pivots east and south. Temperatures today will be similar to
yesterday, maybe a few degrees warmer inland where less cloud cover
is expected. Temperatures tonight will still be on the cool side
across the North Bay and higher elevations across the East Bay Hills
with weak cool advection behind the dry surface boundary late
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Gusty offshore flow will gradually spread south across our area
after sunrise Thursday. The strongest winds will be at higher
elevations, especially in the North Bay and East Bay Hills, but not
expected to exceed 40mph. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar
to Wednesday, right around normal in the 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly once
again with cooler air aloft lingering behind the exiting trough and
surface wind fields easing simultaneously under clear skies leading
to efficient radiational cooling. Thursday night should be an
excellent night for star gazing. Progressive, yet high amplitude
ridging bumps temperatures up Friday and Saturday, before the next
trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Consensus
diverged in deterministic guidance from this time last night, thus
confidence in timing, location and intensity of rainfall is still
low. However, it still looks most of our area will see at least some
light rain Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
There are a few areas of low clouds /VFR-MVFR/ including patchy
mist/fog /IFR-LIFR/ this morning. Conditions improving to VFR
today. Low clouds /MVFR/ increasing ahead of a cold front from
the northwest tonight and early Thursday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR. West wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots
in the afternoon, continuing tonight and Thursday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR. West winds 5 to 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Fresh northwest breezes and moderate seas will continue over the
coastal waters through today. A mostly dry cold front will push
through tonight followed by gusty northwesterly winds Thursday.
These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed
coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes
Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT
Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Apr 15 08:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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