FXUS66 KMTR 100038
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
438 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
- Seasonally warm, dry conditions through midweek; unsettled
weather returns late week into next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions continue through tonight and return
late week into the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Upper level ridging prevails over the West Coast (and most of the
United States) heading into Tuesday. Expect foggy conditions to
develop across the North Bay Valleys, along the San Francisco and
San Pablo Bayshores and bays, the delta, and potentially the
interior East Bay Valleys. The conditions are favorable for fog to
develop again tonight with decent moisture and good overnight
radiational cooling thanks to a lack of mid/high level clouds.
Bayshore locations and any mariners on the San Francisco/San Pablo
Bays or the Delta should be prepared for fog, likely dense, to
develop early Tuesday morning. If driving, remember to slow down and
allow extra time to reach your destination. If boating in fog, turn
on all running lights, slow down, and listen for any other boats
that may be nearby. As of 1PM Monday, visibilities are still
struggling to improve along portions of the bay shoreline from this
morning's fog. Tomorrow will likely be similar with reduced
visibilities and patchy fog persisting into the late morning/early
afternoon hours.
Despite early morning fog, high temperatures will warm back into the
70s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast by Tuesday
afternoon. This is brought to us by persistent upper level ridging
over the Western US and 850 mb temperatures around 12-16 C. While
pleasantly warm, these temperatures are around 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Morning low temperatures remain in the
50s with slightly cooler lows in the 40s across the North Bay. While
the high temperatures don't make it feel like winter is coming,
there is a pattern change expected late week into the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Upper level ridging and above normal temperatures continue Wednesday
and Thursday. High temperatures remain in the 70s on Wednesday
across the interior but trend cooler on Thursday (dropping into the
60s to low 70s). Coastal areas remain constant in the 60s to low
70s. Unsettled weather returns Friday and brings with it a host of
topics to discuss. Upper level ridging will be replaced by a deep
upper level trough pushing into the West Coast. Temperatures will
cool, becoming more seasonal to seasonally cool. Interior highs will
be in the mid to upper 60s Friday/Saturday before dropping into the
low 60s Sunday/Monday. Coastal areas will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Overnight lows will cool as well with high temperatures
gradually dropping into the 40s to upper 30s across the region.
Initially it looked as though we could see rain as early as
Wednesday/Thursday but those chances have evaporated - thanks to a
cutoff low splitting from the main trough and pushing into Southern
California and avoiding us. Rain chances now increase Friday into
the weekend with beneficial rain expected across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. The active period looks to continue well past Monday
with ensemble guidance highlighting many additional troughs/rounds
of rain arriving during the second half of the month. No major
flooding concerns are expected with this weekend's storm but that
may change over the next few weeks if we do see several rounds of
storms over a short time frame. There is even a low (5-12%) chance
of thunderstorms this weekend as the bulk of the rain moves in.
Gusty winds (30-40 mph) are likely as the front passes. The current
forecast stays below Wind Advisory criteria but that will be
something to keep an eye on as we head closer to the weekend. Now
would be a good time to secure any outdoor decorations or bring in
any outdoor furniture. If you have any other winter/rain
preparations to do (i.e. clearing your gutters, power outage prep,
trimming tree limbs) make sure to do it before Friday.
Hazardous beach conditions return late week into the weekend as long
period NW swell and large breaking waves. The current forecast has
wave heights between 18 to 22 feet across the outer waters which
will bring hazardous conditions for mariners. Beachgoers will also
experience hazardous conditions due to large breaking waves, sneaker
waves, and strong rip currents. This is not a good weekend to go to
the beach.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
Quiet weather and VFR conditions prevail this afternoon,
with satellite imagery showing high clouds overhead. Expect these
conditions to continue through the evening hours and early overnight
hours before another round of fog and low clouds return. Models seem
to be in agreement with widespread LIFR to IFR vis for KSTS, KOAK,
and KSJC with some uncertainty for interior sites like KAPC and even
KSFO. Fog may begin developing as early 06-07Z for STS and then last
until roughly 17-19Z. For KOAK and KSJC develop looks to occur a
little later, closer to 10Z and likely faltering to LIFR around
sunrise. Fog and low clouds should erode near between 17-19Z leading
to another VFR afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...No major deviations from the prior TAF set as it
appears to have captured the timing of any fog and low cloud
development. Uncertainty remains if KSFO will fall below IFR
vis/cigs, closer to quarter mile fog but there are signs of it. Hi-
res guidance is split, with the more bullish models being the HRRR,
REFS, and RRFS putting up to ranging 30-60% from 10-15Z. Clearing of
any reduced vis or cig is expected by 19-20Z. Then VFR conditions
prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Fog and low cloud look to
develop around the Bay tonight, which should lead to LIFR to IFR
cigs and vis. Development looks develop on the east side and
gradually spreading around/across the rest of the Bay. Clearing
should start occur around 17-18, with VFR conditions expected by 19-
20Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Onshore flow will continue for the evening,
before weak offshore flow returns to the forecast. This should be
enough to keep both KMRY and KSNS VFR overnight, though some
guidance a few hours of IFR cigs/vis possible at KSNS again. Kept
the hint at any development in the TAF, with the return of onshore
flow by the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
Rough to very rough seas will persist through this evening,
beginning to gradually subside overnight through the middle of the
week with moderate to fresh northerly breezes. Sea state will
become dynamic once again by the second half of the work week
into next weekend with long period west/northwest swell up to 18
seconds late in the forecast period.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 330 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show
the moderate swell and moderate period continue to produce an
energetic surf zone. As such, large shore break, sneaker waves,
and stronger rip currents will be possible. Breaking waves of 12
to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at
favored break point. Spring tides will also increase the currents
and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from
beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks,
and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water if
you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave
activity midweek, but longer range forecasts show additional
swells impacting the coast next weekend.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4
ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft
above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an
increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Nov 9 20:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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