Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 142029
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
129 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

 - Near normal temperatures continue through Thursday before
   temperatures warm heading into the weekend

 - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher
   elevations, Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning

 - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain Sunday
   into the beginning of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

Low level stratus is breaking up across the Bay Area with sunny 
skies to continue into the afternoon/evening. Another round of 
stratus is expected tonight along the coast and portions of the SF
Bay Shoreline. Locally patchy fog remains possible tonight across
the interior valleys, particularly across the North Bay Valleys 
and southern Salinas Valley. The upper level pattern remains 
fairly stable in the short term as a deep upper level trough moves
into the PNW and more meridional flow (becoming slightly troughy 
on Wednesday) prevails over California. This will result in 
Tuesday looking fairly similar to Monday with coastal highs in the
50s to 60s, interior highs in the 60s, and portions of the 
interior Central Coast in the low 70s. Morning low temperatures 
will be in the 40s to low 50s with portions of the interior 
Central Coast and the elevated terrain dropping into the upper 
30s. Diurnally breezy onshore winds continue through Wednesday 
with gusts to around 20 to 30 mph across favored gaps/passes and 
along the coast in the afternoon/evening. There is some potential 
for coastal drizzle on Wednesday but if any does occur no 
accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

There is a slight pattern change Wednesday night into Thursday as a 
high amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. This will bring 
gusty offshore (northerly) winds across the region with gusts 
between 30-40 mph across the highest peaks. Winds will be strongest 
across the North Bay Interior Mountains and the interior East Bay. 
Fire concerns remain minimal thanks to the recent wetting rains 
across the region last weekend. Winds shift onshore again by 
Saturday and continue through the remainder of the Long Term 
Forecast. High temperatures will see a gradual warming trend 
Thursday into the weekend with highs building back into the mid to 
upper 70s across the interior and 60s along the coastline. By 
Sunday, the upper level ridge will have progressed eastward and 
another deep upper level trough will move into the West Coast. This 
low is coming from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring us our next 
round of rain. The highest rain totals look to be in the coastal 
mountain ranges with lower amounts expected across the rest of the 
Bay Area and Central Coast. Temperatures will cool Sunday and Monday 
with interior highs in the 60s to low 70s on Sunday dropping into 
the low to mid 60s on Monday. Coastal high temperatures will remain 
in the 50s to 60s. Gusty onshore winds are possible Sunday into 
Monday as this next system arrives but it does not meet Wind 
Advisory Criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Low level lift and ample moisture led to a strato-cu kinda day.
Onshore flow and persistent cloud feed from the Pacific will keep
a mix of MVFR (2000-3000 FT CIGS) to VFR through the 19-20Z time
period. It will take some time, but do expect mostly VFR this
afternoon with a few lingering CU. Tonight will be lower conf 
given lingering low moisture increasing high level clouds. For 
STS/APC did not include dense fog like this AM....thinking 
increasing high clouds will limit radiational cooling (10-20% 
chc). For the Wed AM rush do have some MVFR CIGS returning 
1500-2500 FT. Winds are forecast to increase throughout the day 
into the evening before tapering down through the night. HAF is an
exception as it will maintain moderate winds with some embedded 
gusts through the TAF period due to its close proximity to the 
coastline.

Vicinity of SFO...Strato-cu is slow to mix out. Trending later in
the 19-20Z block for the Bay. Do expect an uptick with onshore
winds this afternoon with better clearing. Gusts 20-25 kt.  

SFO Bridge Approach...Solid deck of strato-cu. May clear a little
later than SFO terminal.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Gradual thinning of strato-cu with
similar clearing in the 19-20Z. Onshore flow will bring some MVFR
cigs back again tonight. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

High pressure off the California coast will maintain moderate to
fresh northerly breezes over the coastal waters today. Locally
stronger gusts will occur near Point Reyes and Point Sur regions.
A cold  front will increase winds to near gale force late
Wednesday or  early Thursday, building rough seas. Winds and seas
ease into the  weekend, but build again into the next work week
with some chances for rain.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Apr 14 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service