FXUS66 KMTR 301917
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1217 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore
and Pacific Coast locations through the weekend
- Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through the
extended forecast
- Potential for rain Saturday and again next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1213 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
(This evening through Sunday)
There remains a slight chance to chance for rain showers across the
Central Coast (mainly across interior Monterey County and San Benito
County) through this evening. There is also a 5-10% probability of
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across the mountains
of San Benito County, however probabilities remain low at this time.
The primary hazards with any isolated thunderstorms that do develop
will be lightning, localized moderate/heavy downpours, and
gusty/erratic winds.
Tonight, mostly dry conditions are forecast to persist as the cold
front pushes into northern California and weakens as at approaches
the Bay Area. This feature will bring chances for rain across the
Bay Area by Saturday afternoon and into early Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, chances for precipitation across the Central Coast from
remnant moisture aimed toward southern California.
All that said, the NBM Probabilities of reaching greater than 0.25"
(15-35%) reamin highest along the highest through tonight across
Monterey and San Bentio. Then by Saturday night across Sonoma County
and 15-45% across Monterey and San Benito counties Saturday night
into Sunday morning.
From previous forecaster: "A combination of high astronomical tides
and surge from thermal expansion and low pressure effects brings the
risk of minor coastal flooding along the Bayshore at the San Pablo,
San Francisco, and Monterey Bays, and the Pacific coast, at high
tide today. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected
to be 1.9 ft above normal (7.7 ft MLLW) at 2:39 PM today, 1.5 ft
above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 3:44 PM Saturday, and 1.0 feet above
normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 3:59 PM Sunday, including around 1.5 ft of
surge residual." The Coastal Flood Advisory drops off after high
tide on Saturday for the Pacific Coast but remains in effect through
Sunday for bayshore locations along the San Pablo, San Francisco,
and Monterey Bays.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1213 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Weak ridging builds in from the eastern Pacific Sunday and into
Monday in wake of the exiting trough. This will result clearing of
clouds regionwide and dry weather conditions Sunday afternoon
through Monday afternoon along with a slight warming trend. However,
temperatures will generally remain a few degrees below normal.
Tuesday and beyond, there is still a great amount of uncertainty
with the forecast. The current forecast indicates a slight chance of
rain/rain showers on Tuesday as a trough or cut-off low approaches
the Bay Area and Central Coast. That said, the Climate Prediction
Center's 6-10 Day Outlook our region in the 33-40% for greater than
normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 AM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
VFR through the TAF cycle with some borderline VFR-MVFR ceilings
possible Saturday morning at the Monterey Bay terminals. Gentle
onshore breezes prevail through the afternoon gradually becoming
light and variable overnight as the low pressure system nears our
coastline. Scattered light rain associated with this system are
likely to occur after the current TAF period beginning Saturday
night.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR with some brief borderline MVFR-VFR ceilings
possible this morning. Westerly breezes increase to around 10 kt
this afternoon and gradually ease post-sunset while shifting
southwest. A mixture of high to mid-level clouds are possible
through the overnight hours. Onshore winds increase to 10 kt
tomorrow afternoon with the potential for light rain to reach the
terminal Saturday evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Mainly VFR through the TAF period with
brief periods of borderline MVFR-VFR ceilings. Onshore winds
increase up to 10 kt this afternoon and become light southwest to
southerly breezes overnight. There is potential for some light
drizzle Saturday morning, though confidence was too low to include
in the TAF. Higher confidence for light rain to impact the terminal
Saturday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 906 AM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Gentle to fresh northwesterly breezes prevail with moderate seas
through the weekend. A long period southwesterly swell combines
with a long period west-northwest swell early next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ505-509.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass/DialH
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Oct 30 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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