FXUS66 KMTR 140534
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
934 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
- Rain and wind to impact the region through this evening
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through high tide
today
- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions
Saturday
- Periods of rain continue through next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)
A cold front is currently moving through the Bay Area and north
Central Coast producing light to moderate, and at times brief heavy
downpours. There remain a slight chance (15% or less) of
thunderstorms across the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and the San
Francisco Bay Area through early afternoon. However, there haven't
been any reports or indications of lightning so far. We have seen
wind gusts up to around 55-65 mph, but those have been mostly in the
peaks across the region and up to 55 mph along the coast. Still
enough to result in downed trees and branches leading to isolated
power outages. Also, have had a few reports of nuisance flooding in
the Santa Cruz Mountains and elsewhere across the region. Not
expecting much more than typically poor drainage areas and minor
roadway flooding across he region. The front will clear the North
Bay soon, the Bay Area by around 3 PM, and the Central Coast by 6
PM. In wake of the frontal passage, expecting post frontal rain
showers to persist this evening and into early Saturday morning.
Tonight, temperatures are forecast to be cooler than the previous
nights. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 40s in the
North Bay and southern Salinas Valley with mid 40s to lower 50s
elsewhere. The coldest wind sheltered valleys potentially will be as
cold as the upper 30s Saturday morning.
Saturday, we are expecting mostly dry conditions across the region
with partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, temperatures will
struggle to warm to the mid 60s in the lower elevations while the
peaks top out in the upper 40s to 50s.
Please check the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety tips and more
information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning and
Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 107 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)
A second cold front is forecast to move through the region on
Sunday, first across the North Bay and then through the remainder of
the Bay Area and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening hours.
Currently, rainfall totals are forecast to be similar to today's
frontal passage. In wake of that front, Tuesday morning's minimum
temperatures are forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys,
southern Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere. Will need to monitor for
cold weather products.
From previous forecaster: "Another lull in the rainfall comes later
Monday into Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region
later on Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too
early at this stage to be confident on how much rain this third
system will bring.
As we go through the week, the main point to watch will be soil
saturation across the region. The initial rounds of rain will be
generally beneficial, reducing our fire weather threat and
recharging the snowpack across the Sierra Nevada. Flooding concerns
will be minimal with nuisance flooding possible across urban areas
and small streams. Outside of these areas, rainwater is absorbed
into the ground, which at this time, remains rather dry. As the rain
continues to arrive, local soils saturate and are no longer able to
hold as much additional rainfall, thus diverting excess water onto
the surface and streams and rivers. Wet soils will also increase the
chance for shallow landslides across the Bay Area, leading to
further damage to homes and properties. Beyond the seven-day
outlook, the pattern remains active with a lean towards rainfall
totals above the seasonal average through late November. We will
need to monitor what this will mean for soil saturation and the
possibility for landslides through the next week."
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
More widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist
with isolated MVFR conditions overnight that may be accompanied by
scattered showers. There is moderate to high confidence of ceilings
scattering out tonight with shower activity decreasing by early
Saturday morning. Light south-southwest winds will persist through
tomorrow afternoon with another system arriving late Saturday night
into Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO...There is high confidence of VFR conditions
continuing into Saturday afternoon with isolated instances of
MVFR possible as the scattered rain showers make their way through
the forecast area. Scattered showers are still possible tonight
as we head into the morning hours, but will become less likely
after midnight. Ceilings will continue to scatter out overnight
into Saturday morning. Light south-southwest winds will persist
into Saturday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered showers continue to move
through the Central Coast but will taper off overnight. Clear
skies and light onshore flow return by late tomorrow morning
before winds shift southerly again late evening/overnight ahead of
the next system arriving Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
Scattered showers and a moderate northwesterly breeze will
continue over the marine environment through early Saturday
morning. Very dangerous conditions for mariners continues with
wave heights building significantly tonight into Saturday. Very
high seas are expected on Saturday with significant wave heights
up to 25 feet forecast across the coastal waters. Wave heights
subside slightly Sunday but very high seas will persist through
early next week. The next round of fresh to strong southerly
winds will arrive Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Widespread rain returns early Sunday and
continues into Monday with winds decreasing and shifting
northwesterly after cold frontal passage.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 931 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
High Surf Warning:
A High Surf Warning is now in effect through 4AM Sunday. A series
of hurricane force low pressure systems will impact the NE Pacific
through early next week. These storms will produce very high NW
swell that will impact the coast and bring very hazardous coastal
conditions. The peak of this swell is set to arrive on Saturday
with breaking waves up to 35 feet expected along the coast in
addition to strong rip currents and an increased risk of sneaker
waves. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely at favored
breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). These waves bring tremendous power
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion.
The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the
water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and
never turn your back on the ocean. Wave amplitude will abate
somewhat on Sunday before a new round of very high swell arrives
Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding
as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast.
Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20%
of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher
water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea
walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly
during high tide.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Rothenberg
MARINE...Kennedy
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Nov 13 22:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
|