FXUS66 KMTR 120450
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
950 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
- Warming and drying trend will peak this afternoon
- Gradual cooling trend and unsettled weather through midweek
- Warming and drying trend midweek and beyond
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)
Low clouds have retreated to the coast as the marine layer
compressed overnight and into early this morning to around 1,000
feet. As high pressure continues to strengthen over the Desert
Southwest and 850 mb temperatures warm to 20-22 deg C,
temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s
across the interior, upper 60s to low 80s just inland away from
the coast, and locations along the immediate coastline in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.
Stratus is likely to return to the coast this evening and spread
locally inland through Tuesday morning as a shallow marine layer
remains in place. Mist or light coastal drizzle will also be
possible tonight into Tuesday morning.
A gradual cool down, especially over the North Bay and Bay Area,
is expected on Tuesday with afternoon maximum temperatures in the
70s to lower 80s across the interior and upper 50s to lower 70s.
Interior areas of the Central Coast are likely to see the 80s to
near 90 deg F as the mid/upper level ridge across the Desert
Southwest begins to shift eastward ahead of an approaching trough.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
The aforementioned mid/upper level trough will cool temperatures
even further on Wednesday as a cut-off low pushes inland across
Oregon and northern California. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will
also develop each afternoon and evening with gusts reaching 25 to
40 miles per hour along the coast, through gaps and passes, and
across the ridgetops through late week. There remains a chance of
drizzle or very light Wednesday through early Thursday morning,
especially along the coast and favored upslope regions of the
coastal ranges. However, confidence of this occuring has
diminished given the northern track of the mid/upper level low.
Zonal flow then returns for the remainder of the work week and
into next weekend with dry conditions and moderating temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 949 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
Stratus has brought MVFR to IFR cigs to the coast and some interior
North Bay valleys and the northern Salinas Valley. Models trend with
the marine layer at 1000 feet, but it might get closer to 1200 feet
tonight. This will bring yet another night of low clouds and
potentially visibility. Trended the forecast to account for the
inland push in the North Bay, while East and South Bay terminals
hold similar timing to the previous TAFs. Stratus should burn off by
mid to late morning, breezy onshore flow is expected tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
Vicinity of SFO...Breezy westerly winds should begin to decrease
within the next hour or so becoming less than 10kt for the overnight
hours. The stratus looms just west of the terminal, with VFR
conditions prevailing. The onset of stratus should occur later
tonight, but there are also some models showing the stratus arriving
closers to 12Z, with low clouds mixing out by 17-20Z. Breezy
westerlies return tomorrow afternoon, with gusts up to 21kt by 21Z
and 30kt closer to 30Z. Breezy winds look to last into the evening
with gusts to 20-25kt potentially lasting through 6Z. Medium
confidence in the forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The actual Bay is socked in with stratus
which is making a good inland push. KMRY has already succumbed to
the stratus, with cigs falling to LIFR. KSNS is following suit, with
another night of low cigs and vis for them and other terminals. Most
guidance stratus mixing out by mid to late morning, with the
exception being at KMRY. There is uncertainty if we'll be able to
fully clear, or if we'll get a few pockets of sunshine between 18-
23Z. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 949 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026
Occasional strong gusts continue through tonight across the far
northern outer waters. Otherwise, a moderate to fresh northwest
breeze will continue over the waters through midweek. Seas subside
but remain moderate with 4 to 6 foot seas through midweek. Winds
increase and seas build starting mid-week with gale force winds
and wave heights in excess of 10 feet likely starting Friday and
continuing through the weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon May 11 22:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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