Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 142345
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
445 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

 - Near normal temperatures continue through Thursday before
   temperatures warm heading into the weekend

 - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher
   elevations, Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning

 - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain Sunday
   into the beginning of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

Low level stratus is breaking up across the Bay Area with sunny 
skies to continue into the afternoon/evening. Another round of 
stratus is expected tonight along the coast and portions of the SF
Bay Shoreline. Locally patchy fog remains possible tonight across
the interior valleys, particularly across the North Bay Valleys 
and southern Salinas Valley. The upper level pattern remains 
fairly stable in the short term as a deep upper level trough moves
into the PNW and more meridional flow (becoming slightly troughy 
on Wednesday) prevails over California. This will result in 
Tuesday looking fairly similar to Monday with coastal highs in the
50s to 60s, interior highs in the 60s, and portions of the 
interior Central Coast in the low 70s. Morning low temperatures 
will be in the 40s to low 50s with portions of the interior 
Central Coast and the elevated terrain dropping into the upper 
30s. Diurnally breezy onshore winds continue through Wednesday 
with gusts to around 20 to 30 mph across favored gaps/passes and 
along the coast in the afternoon/evening. There is some potential 
for coastal drizzle on Wednesday but if any does occur no 
accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

There is a slight pattern change Wednesday night into Thursday as a 
high amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. This will bring 
gusty offshore (northerly) winds across the region with gusts 
between 30-40 mph across the highest peaks. Winds will be strongest 
across the North Bay Interior Mountains and the interior East Bay. 
Fire concerns remain minimal thanks to the recent wetting rains 
across the region last weekend. Winds shift onshore again by 
Saturday and continue through the remainder of the Long Term 
Forecast. High temperatures will see a gradual warming trend 
Thursday into the weekend with highs building back into the mid to 
upper 70s across the interior and 60s along the coastline. By 
Sunday, the upper level ridge will have progressed eastward and 
another deep upper level trough will move into the West Coast. This 
low is coming from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring us our next 
round of rain. The highest rain totals look to be in the coastal 
mountain ranges with lower amounts expected across the rest of the 
Bay Area and Central Coast. Temperatures will cool Sunday and Monday 
with interior highs in the 60s to low 70s on Sunday dropping into 
the low to mid 60s on Monday. Coastal high temperatures will remain 
in the 50s to 60s. Gusty onshore winds are possible Sunday into 
Monday as this next system arrives but it does not meet Wind 
Advisory Criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Strong onshore winds will gradually taper off over the next 3-6
hours this evening. High clouds associated with a cold front over
far northern California will start to spill over the Bay Area and
Central Coast tonight. Under these pre-frontal clouds, there will
still be some marine layer stratus impacts before the actual surface
front moves through Wednesday night.

Vicinity of SFO...Sustained winds have remain between 15-20
knots for the last few hours. These strong winds will persist for
another couple hours before the sea breeze impacts decrease later
this evening. There is a 20-30% chance for MVFR ceilings through
18Z Wednesday before the low clouds should start mixing out. More
than likely the ceilings will be transient and temporary through
the first 18 hours of the TAF.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...With a better exposure to the ocean, the
southern terminals have the best chance for MVFR ceilings early
Wednesday morning. Despite this, there is very little chance for 
them to drop below 1,000 feet. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 429 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

High pressure over the NE Pacific will continue to support a fresh
NW breeze and moderate seas over the coastal waters through
Wednesday afternoon. A mostly dry cold front will push through
Wednesday night, followed by a push of strong to near gale force
NW'rlys Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet
across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to a
moderate NW breeze Fri-Sat, allowing seas to gradually subside.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 PM PDT Thursday 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt 
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon 
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Apr 14 20:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service