FXUS66 KMTR 022340
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
340 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work week
- Hazardous beach conditions through this evening at Pacific Coast
beaches
- 20 to 40% chance of rain on Sunday across the region, with the
higher amounts favoring the North Bay and the coastal
mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 156 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)
The threat for minor coastal flooding is winding down as high tide
has come and now past. The only other threat from the previous AD
update is that the Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for
Pacific Beaches through this evening. Otherwise, quiet and dry
weather continues through the short term thanks to high pressure
building over the region. Temperatures tonight will be similar to
last night or perhaps a few degrees warmer. Given the building high
pressure system, tomorrow's high temperatures will be warmer,
putting most areas above their normal seasonal highs by 5 to 15
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 156 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
High pressure dominates the forecast through much of the work week,
leading to a warming and drying trend through Wednesday. Cluster
analysis shows an upper level trough developing off the California
Coast Thursday into Friday, though there is some uncertainty as to
where exactly it'll be placed. This could spread some moisture in
from the south for us, likely leading to an increase cloud cover and
slightly cooler temperatures. The airmass should remain dry enough
to keep any showers at bay, but this will be something to watch for.
Friday into the weekend, the aforementioned low looks to be over
southern California by Saturday, with ridging setting up over the
PacNW. The forecast continues to trend dry for most of Saturday,
with chances for precipitation potentially arriving as early as late
Saturday night for areas in the far North Bay. Should the clusters
pan out, high pressure meanders eastward as a disturbance advances
towards the PacNW Sunday into Monday. Chances for rain have bumped
up with the latest forecast package, to about 30-40% for the North
Bay region and the San Francisco peninsula coast. Interior areas,
like South and East Bay are closer to the 30-35% range and for the
Central Coast chances are lower about 15-35%. What does that mean?
Regardless of rain chances, expect cooler conditions to prevail with
the return of onshore winds, and some cloud cover. Rainfall amounts
at this time remain light, with perhaps some areas seeing vicinity
showers on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 341 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
Clear skies with VFR conditions forecast this evening. Some tempo
fog possible for KSTS/KAPC after 08z with easterly winds possibly
bring some tule fog formation into the region otherwise expect
mostly clear skies Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon with
light winds.
Vicinity of SFO...Clear skies with light winds forecast the next
24 hours.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions, some locally gusty
southeast winds Salinas Valley night and early morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 815 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
Hazardous conditions will continue today for the inner waters and
outer waters due to rough seas and fresh to strong northerly
breezes. Conditions improve tomorrow as moderate seas and a gentle
northeasterly breeze prevails through Thursday. By Friday, seas
build to become rough, and northwesterly breezes increase to
become moderate once again.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 257 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will continue through this evening at
Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an
increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with
breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of
the water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Feb 2 16:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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