FXUS66 KMTR 032147
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday evening and again
Thursday through Saturday
- Rain showers taper off this afternoon and evening
- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek; warming
trend and above normal temps late week into weekend
- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
(This evening through tonight)
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows an area of low pressure
moving into our northern outer waters, just outside of 60nm and west
of Sonoma COunty. THe main band of rain has pushed inland with
showers lingering behind it. More to the west, where the low is,
cumulus clouds are forming along the cold front. Looking at the SPC
mesoanalysis page, just next to that region it shows around 100-150
J/kg of CAPE and some shear. The other convective parameters are not
as favorable such as positive LI and the lapse rates becoming more
stable. Think that these conditions will generally hold for the
afternoon as cloud cover filled ahead of the front. An isolated
rumble of thunder or two is possible over the waters, but generally
the thunder chance is less than 10%. Instead, we'll likely see
additional rainshowers activity as the front approaches. Precip
chances taper off this evening, with dry weather expected for most
areas by the late evening or early hours of Wednesday morning.
Behind the front, look for clear skies tonight and near seasonal low
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 147 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Wednesday, high pressure builds into the region leading to a stretch
of warmer and drier weather. Wednesday will be the start of the
warming trend; however, we'll still be leaning seasonable to
seasonably cool. Thursday into the weekend, high temperatures slowly
climb leading to temperatures becoming unseasonably warm by the
weekend where temperatures could be 10 to 15 degrees above their
normals.
In addition to that, tides continue to trend on the higher end.
Opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for the San
Francisco Bayshorelines from 6AM Wednesday through 1PM MOnday.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected during this time
frame.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Rain showers will continue across the Bay Area and portions of the
Central Coast through late tonight. Temporary reductions in ceiling
height and visibilities are likely as stronger showers roll through.
For now shower chances are likely through 00-06Z before gradually
tapering off overnight. Expect winds to be more southerly during the
day today and gradually becoming more N to NW again by tomorrow
morning.
Vicinity of SFO...Expect showers and temporary reductions in
visibility and ceiling heights through late this evening. Kept CIGs
on the VFR-MVFR border but may see temporary dips lower than in the
TAF. Generally expecting CIGs to rise/fully become VFR by late this
evening as shower chances decrease at SFO. Moderate S to SW winds
continue this morning and will gradually shift more E to NE
overnight before returning to our typical NW flow tomorrow.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered rain showers are expected to move
into Monterey Bay this afternoon, leaving behind lower cloud heights
to linger into the early morning hours. Temporary reductions in
visibility and ceiling heights are likely at MRY and SNS if a
stronger system is able to develop and move onshore. Conditions are
likely to remain MVFR overnight at MRY and SNS.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1000 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Moderate to fresh southwesterly breezes will prevail today ahead
of an approaching cold front. Rain with a low chance for
thunderstorms are possible this morning and this afternoon,
especially north of Pigeon Point. Winds will veer to become
northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the
weekend. Drier conditions expected Wednesday into early next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 327 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at
Pacific Coast beaches Tuesday as long period (15-19 second)
northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves
and strong rip currents. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean! Hazardous beach conditions may
linger into Wednesday and thus may warrant an extension of the Beach
Hazards Statement.
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM PST Monday
for CAZ006-506-508.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay-
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Nov 3 14:30:04 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
|