FXUS66 KMTR 052030
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1230 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026
- Moderate to strong winds along the coast and at higher
elevations through Saturday
- Warming trend through the weekend with the warmest temperatures
on Sunday
- Dry conditions through the extended forecast
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026
(This evening through Friday)
Clear, dry, and windy conditions are expected today as an inside
slider pattern sets up over the next couple of days. A upper level
trough currently digs into the Great Basin, drifting eastwards into
the Four Corners states over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, an upper
level high builds in the eastern Pacific, driving a pressure
gradient that will build gusty north to northwest winds across the
region today. Gusts will top out around 25 to 35 mph for the
valleys, while coastal areas and the higher elevations will see
gusts generally in the 40 to 50 mph range. Overnight, expect wind
gusts to relax in the valleys with the surface layer decoupling from
the flow aloft, but strong gusts will persist across the coastal and
high elevation areas. In fact, wind gusts in the highest peaks and
ridges may increase as a surface high pressure system reinforces the
pressure gradient, with gusts approaching 60 mph during the pre-dawn
hours of Friday morning.
On Friday, strong winds will continue across the region as the upper
level trough splits into a weaker trough progressing through the
upper Midwest and a cutoff low retrograding over the desert
Southwest. Wind gusts should be similar to those seen today, with a
more northerly component to the winds as the upper level flow
shifts.
High temperatures today range from the lower to middle 60s at the
lower elevations, to the upper 40s and 50s across the higher
elevations. Morning lows on Friday will drop in the upper 30s to
middle 40s away from the immediate coast as clear skies enhance
radiational cooling, where temperatures will bottom out at the upper
40s to the lower 50s. Friday's highs will benefit from the turning
of the winds as temperatures warm to the upper 60s to middle 70s in
the lower elevations, to the middle 50s to middle 60s in the higher
elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Breezy and gusty winds will continue through Saturday as a cut-off
low traverses the northern end of Baja California and pauses just
off the coast. Thus, the winds are expected to veer to the northeast
Friday night into Saturday, enhancing the warm and dry conditions
across the region. Breezy winds are still possible, particularly in
the North Bay interior mountains, but the general trend is for winds
to begin decreasing across the Bay Area and especially the Central
Coast. Through the weekend, the eastern Pacific high diminishes,
allowing the winds to relax on Sunday. However, residual offshore
flow will allow the warming trend to continue, and Sunday should see
the warmest temperatures of the forecast period with high
temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s at the immediate
coastline, while the inland valleys see high temperatures in the
upper 70s and perhaps the lower 80s in some of the warmer spots.
The cut-off low begins to weaken and drift eastwards in the early
part of next week, allowing for onshore flow to return and causing a
slight cooling trend, although high temperatures remain above
seasonal averages as highs reach the lower to middle 70s in the
inland valleys and the lower to middle 60s along the coast. Clouds
may return to the region as the upper level flow shifts to a more
zonal pattern, but no rain is in sight for the foreseeable future,
including beyond the 7-day forecast as CPC outlooks lean towards the
combination of temperatures above seasonal averages and
precipitation totals below seasonal averages towards the middle of
March.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 925 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2026
VFR. North to northwest winds increase this afternoon and persist
through the evening before diminishing overnight and into Friday
morning. Gusts are likely to reach up to 25 kt late this morning
and into the afternoon. Winds increase once again by Friday
afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 835 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2026
Strong winds with gale force gusts persists across much of the
waters into Friday. These winds will build very rough seas of 12
to 15 feet. Conditions will gradually improve through the weekend
as winds diminish and seas subside. Winds build again into the
next work week with seas building shortly after.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Mar 5 14:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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