FXUS66 KMTR 140011
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
511 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
- Cooling trend continues today, warming and drying trend resumes
Thursday
- Breezy and gusty winds this afternoon and evening, then
returning Friday into the weekend
- Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Skies are clearing across the region with a decaying cold front, the
fringes of an upper level trough coming across the Pacific
Northwest, helping to mix out the lower levels across the Bay Area
and Central Coast. Some patches of stratus linger across the San
Mateo Peninsula and the Monterey Bay region, but these patches
should mix out through the afternoon hours. High temperatures remain
seasonally average to cool with temperatures in the 70s to the lower
80s in the inland valleys, the middle 60s to lower 70s close to the
bays, and the upper 50s to the lower 60s near the Pacific coast. A
strengthening pressure gradient will develop as a Pacific high
opposes a low developing in the Great Basin, with northwesterly
gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour developing this afternoon and
evening along the coast, through favorably oriented gaps and
valleys, and across the ridgelines. Winds should diminish late this
evening in to the post-midnight hours on Thursday.
For Thursday, mild ridging should settle into the region and allow
for a gradual warming trend, with highs in the inland valleys
reaching the upper 70s to the upper 80s. Some low clouds could
develop on the western side of the San Mateo Peninsula into the
Monterey Bay region, with the stratus dissipating through the
morning as an onshore breeze forms in the afternoon, although wind
speeds should not be as strong as today's winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Temperatures on Friday should be similar to those seen on Thursday,
but the winds could start picking up again as an upper level trough
develops from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest,
increasing the pressure gradient and causing gusts to rise to the 25
to 35 mph range along the coast, through gaps and passes, and at the
ridgelines. Through the weekend, a part of that trough breaks off
from the westerly flow and starts to stall over the Northern
Rockies, further reinforcing the strong winds across the region and
especially at the favored regions. On Saturday, NBM probabilities
show good chances (above 80% probabilities) for wind gusts above 40
mph along the coastal regions; along the ridgelines of the Mayacama,
Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains; and through the Salinas Valley
between Salinas and King City. Wind Advisories may end up being
necessary Friday through the weekend, as confidence in the extent
and strength of the winds increases through the next couple of days.
Beach Hazards Statements or High Surf Advisories may also be
required due to strong and dangerous wind-driven waves.
As for temperatures, the incoming trough will interrupt the warming
trend with temperatures on Saturday and Sunday dropping back into
the 70s to lower 80s in the inland valleys. For the early part of
next week, the warming trend will resume as upper level ridging
returns to the West Coast. There continues to be some variability in
the ensemble space depending on how that upper level ridging
interacts with the lingering trough over the Rockies. The NBM seems
to be running a little warm in that ensemble space, so in
coordination with our neighbors and national centers, we've dropped
the high temperature forecasts by around 3 degrees across our
forecast area for the early part of next week. For next Tuesday and
Wednesday, the current forecast calls for highs in the middle 80s to
lower 90s in the inland valleys, the upper 70s to the middle 80s
close to the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s near the Pacific
coast. Judging from a close analysis of the ensemble clusters, the
wiggle room for those inland highs looks to be around 3 to 5 degrees
in either direction. The coastal and Bayshore highs are harder to
say, particularly if the marine layer does return to those regions,
as the resolution of the global ensemble models does not allow for a
good depiction of those marine layer impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
for the North Bay terminals and interior East Bay and South Bay
terminals. Gusty onshore flow through this evening will ease later
tonight for the coastal terminals. Patchy stratus is expected to
develop with low confidence in exact timing and extent, but should
remain MVFR cigs if they develop in the predawn hours and lift by
mid-morning Thursday.
Vicinity of SFO...Gusty onshore flow will persist until later
tonight and ease somewhat after midnight, and expected increase
once again to gusts with 25-30kts Thursday afternoon. As mentioned
above, timing and extent of MVFR cigs is low confidence, but if
realized are expected to lift by mid-morning Thursday with VFR
expected to prevail through the remaining of the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Gusty onshore winds up to 25-30kts should
ease late tonight and increase once again Thursday afternoon,
similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR is expected to prevail through late
tonight with higher confidence in MVFR cigs developing after
midnight and persisting through mid-late Thursday morning. Gusty
onshore flow will ease this evening and increase once again
Thursday afternoon with VFR expected through the remainder of the
TAF period once MVFR cigs lift.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 448 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
Hazardous marine conditions expected late week through the
weekend. Winds will continue increasing through the work week
with strong winds and near gale-force gusts today. Persistent
gale-force winds reach the outer waters beginning Thursday, with
gale force to severe gale winds becoming widespread by Friday.
Occasional storm force gusts are possible across the inner waters
Friday into the weekend. Very high wind driven seas between 12 to
17 feet are expected. Hazardous conditions for mariners and very
dangerous conditions for small crafts continue through this
weekend before winds ease early next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for
Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon
Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed May 13 18:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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