Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 091733
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
933 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026

 - High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight 
   conditions

 - Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches today
   and Sunday through Thursday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026

It was a chilly morning throughout the Bay Area and Central Coast. 
Widespread temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s were observed across 
the lower elevations with low temperatures in the upper 30s to low 
40s across the higher elevations and portions of the coastline. The 
Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning have both been 
allowed to expire as temperatures warm through the remainder of the 
morning. Expect another chilly morning again tomorrow with morning 
lows in the low to mid 30s across the interior. It is likely that 
additional Cold Weather products will be issued for tonight into 
tomorrow morning. Otherwise, a High Surf Advisory and Beach Hazards 
Statement remain in effect along the coastline. Never turn your back 
on the ocean and stay safe if going to the beach.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 119 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026
(Today and tonight)

High pressure building into the Great Basin and a coastal trough 
developing off of California is creating offshore flow. Hyper-
localized gusts of 40-50mph have been observed on Fremont Peak, Mt. 
St. Helena, and Mt. Umunhum. As there are no fire weather concerns 
and the winds aren't mixing down, this is more of a notable thing 
rather than an impactful thing. Some high clouds associated with a 
developing storm force low in the Eastern Pacific Ocean are 
streaming in from the north. The clouds look thin enough on 
satellite imagery that they shouldn't be able to impact the minimum 
temperature forecast too much. As such, cold weather products remain 
in effect until 9AM this morning. Have decided to hold off on any 
issuance of cold weather products for Friday night, the reason is 
two-fold. It looks like some zones will be able to be omitted or 
changed tonight. The Monterey Bay zones may need to be removed and 
the Eastern Santa Clara Hills may need to change from an Extreme 
Cold Warning to a Cold Weather Advisory. So to limit confusion, we 
will take it one night at a time for now. This also gives us the 
advantage of seeing what transpires this morning as this morning and 
tomorrow morning are expected to be very similar.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 119 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)

High pressure building into the Great Basin and a coastal trough 
developing off of California is creating offshore flow. Hyper-
localized gusts of 40-50mph have been observed on Fremont Peak, Mt. 
St. Helena, and Mt. Umunhum. As there are no fire weather concerns 
and the winds aren't mixing down, this is more of a notable thing 
rather than an impactful thing. Some high clouds associated with a 
developing storm force low in the Eastern Pacific Ocean are 
streaming in from the north. The clouds look thin enough on 
satellite imagery that they shouldn't be able to impact the minimum 
temperature forecast too much. As such, cold weather products remain 
in effect until 9AM this morning. Have decided to hold off on any 
issuance of cold weather products for Friday night, the reason is 
two-fold. It looks like some zones will be able to be omitted or 
changed tonight. The Monterey Bay zones may need to be removed and 
the Eastern Santa Clara Hills may need to change from an Extreme 
Cold Warning to a Cold Weather Advisory. So to limit confusion, we 
will take it one night at a time for now. This also gives us the 
advantage of seeing what transpires this morning as this morning and 
tomorrow morning are expected to be very similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 931 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026

High confidence for VFR conditions through the TAF period with 
offshore flow. Periods of mid-high level clouds. Marginal 
conditions for LLWS for STS/APC again tonight and into Saturday 
morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF 
period with offshore flow. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions to prevail through the 
TAF period. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 900 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026

A gentle to moderate breeze persist over the coastal waters  today
through Sunday. A moderate period and larger northwesterly  swell
will continue produce a rough sea state with shoaling near  the
coast, harbor entrances, and bars. Seas will ease late Friday  and
into the weekend. Dry weather will continue with a high  pressure
system over the coastal waters and bays.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 321 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026

Overall beach/surf zone still remain hazardous due to moderate
period and higher swell. The largest surf/breaking waves will be
this morning before easing through the day. 

High Surf Advisory still remains in effect through 10 pm Friday 
PST. Expect large breaking waves up to 22 feet, strong rip 
currents and sneaker waves from coastal Sonoma county to coastal 
Monterey county, excluding the northern Monterey Bay shoreline 
where a Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect. Large breaking 
waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical 
injury and increase the risk of drowning. 

Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Friday evening 
for the northern Monterey Bay shoreline. Expect hazardous beach 
conditions with strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and breaking 
waves up to 15 feet. This will result in dangerous conditions 
along the shoreline. 

Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jan 9 12:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service