FXUS66 KMTR 110654
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 901 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
- Sharp cool-down through early week
- Coastal flooding during high tides and large swell through
Monday
- Beach Hazards until Monday evening
- Very light rain possible southernmost Monterey County Sunday-
Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(Tonight through Monday)
The northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient has increased to 5.9 mb
while the onshore SFO-SAC pressure gradient is 1.0 mb. Surface
winds are largely gusty from the northwest over the coastal waters
in response to the northerly pressure gradient, however wind
favored gaps and passes mainly in the East Bay are indicating
ongoing gusty winds as well. 24 hour temperature trends are mostly
cooler across the forecast area as cold air advection is combining
with nocturnal radiative cooling. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday
will be in the 60s/70s, warmest inland. Lows will be in the 40s/30s,
coldest far inland valleys, except near 50 along the immediate
coastline and bays.
Spotty very light measurable rain and/or drizzle (less than 0.10")
is possible across southernmost Monterey County due to a surface
to lower/mid level low pressure circulation (it will be weakening
since surface pressures are forecast to increase) moving southward
along the Big Sur coast Sunday night and Monday. Dry weather will
prevail over most of the forecast area through early week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1154 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)
The forecast area will remain under cool and dry conditions
Tuesday with a daytime warming trend developing mid to late week.
Thursday to Saturday daytime highs are forecast to return above
mid October normal with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. 500 mb
ridging will advance eastward over our forecast area mid to late
week, bringing a return to warmer daytime temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
MVFR ceilings already developed at HAF and MRY which is expected to
be followed by SNS later tonight. Conditions are expected to improve
early Sunday morning at these terminals. Everywhere else should
remain VFR through the TAF cycle with a few to scattered
stratocumulus decks. Light winds prevail overnight before increasing
to moderate (10 to 15 kt) by Sunday afternoon. Low confidence for
MVFR ceilings to return Sunday evening at coastal terminals,
moderate confidence for VFR to continue to prevail elsewhere.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period with potential for some
scattered decks overnight. These are expected to be short-lived,
therefore they were not mentioned in the official TAF. Lower chance
for gusty onshore winds Sunday afternoon as winds shift southwest to
southerly post-sunset. Medium confidence on the exact timing of wind
shifts.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions at MRY are expected to
improve by Sunday morning. Low to medium confidence on exactly when
MVFR ceilings impact SNS as they can roll in earlier than
advertised. Overall, VFR prevails late Sunday morning as onshore
winds increase to around 10-12 kt. Low confidence on whether MVFR
stratus develops Sunday evening. If anything, it may be borderline
MVFR-VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Hazardous marine conditions persist through early next week. Fresh
to strong northwest breezes are supporting rough to very rough
seas across the coastal waters. Expect frequent gale force gusts
north of Pigeon Point and near gale force gusts to the south. A
low long period southerly swell and a moderate long period
westerly swell combined with strong winds are contributing to a
confused sea state.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Heading to the beach this weekend? The sun will be out, but
beaches conditions will be less than ideal. A cold front will
bring gusty winds over the coastal waters and nearby beaches.
More importantly, the surf zone will remain very energetic. Long
period southerly swell from distant Tropical Storm Rachel will
build in height through the weekend, bringing an increased risk of
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Long period westerly swell
from a gale force low in the Central North Pacific will arrive
Sunday, bringing breaking waves 13-16 feet. The large tidal swings
will also result in coastal erosion as water and waves are
brought farther up the beach than normal, especially during high
tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without
warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to
avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and never turn your
back on the ocean!
MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...Navarrete
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Oct 11 02:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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