FXUS66 KMTR 082340
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
340 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through the midweek
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
- Unsettled weather returns by late week and into the upcoming
weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
(This evening through Monday night)
High pressure remains the dominate weather pattern aloft leading
to our warming trend, despite a weakening frontal boundary to our
north. As such, temperatures will remain 5-10 deg F above early-
November climatological norms. Meanwhile, high clouds continue to
stream in from the west. Tonight and into Monday morning, there is
the potential for low clouds and/or fog in the Bay Area, much of
the Santa Clara Valley, East Bay Valleys, and North Bay Valleys.
Similar to today, any fog that does develop will likely dissipate
between 9 AM - 10 AM and give way to mostly sunny conditions by
the afternoon. Temperatures Monday afternoon will be within a few
degrees of those today.
Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for
safety tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement
and Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the Bay Area and
Central Coast on Tuesday and into Wednesday. This will result in
temperatures across the interior Central Coast to be some 10-15 deg
F above normal with the northern portions of our region remaining 5-
10 deg F above. The high pressure is forecast to shift eastward into
the Desert Southwest on Thursday as the trough off of the West Coast
deepens.
Rain chances have largely been pushed back to Friday and Saturday
with both deterministic GFS and ECMWF showing a cut-off low pressure
system developing and pushing inland over Southern California or
Baja California from Friday through Sunday. However, there is still
chances for rain during this timeframe as the main trough axis
shifts inland across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California
Saturday through Monday. Be sure to check back for the latest
forecast information as we near late week and into the weekend.
Exact details on the system's trajectory and expected rainfall
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 339 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Currently VFR with stratus off the coast and high clouds streaming
in from the west. Moderate confidence on a persistence forecast for
tonight. Ceilings will return for most with bayshore and coastal
terminals likely on the IFR/MVFR cusp with LIFR conditions
more likely for interior terminals. Diurnal winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with northerly flow and haze. Winds
will continue to back through the afternoon to become
westerly/northwesterly. Low to moderate confidence on a ceiling on
the cusp of IFR/MVFR developing at the terminal tonight, likely
between 11Z and 18Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...Moderate confidence on clouds below FL070
developing as soon as 06Z with conditions improving by 16Z.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence in a
persistence forecast. Ceilings on the cusp of IFR/MVFR will make a
run for the terminals tonight, but the limiting factor will likely
be drainage flow as it will bring in drier air and keep stratus out
over the Monterey Bay. Diurnal winds will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 339 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Moderate to fresh breezes combined with a dynamic sea state
continue to produce rough to very rough seas, with hazardous
conditions for small craft across both our coastal and outer
waters through Monday. Elevated mixed long period swell will
continue through the week, increasing further by the end of the
forecast period.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Final day of the weekend and beach weather will be rather nice.
However, the surf zone won't be nice. In case you missed it, a Beach
Hazard Statement remains in effect. Latest buoy obs show the surf
zone remains energetic due to mixed swells and longer periods. As
such, large shore break, sneaker waves, and stronger rip currents
will be possible. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at
exposed beaches and up to 18 ft at favored break point. Spring tides
will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal.
Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people
into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties,
piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the
water if you're not an experienced swimmer to avoid hazardous surf
and never turn your back on the ocean! There may be a lull in wave
activity early next week, but longer range forecasts show additional
swells impacting the coast late next week.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4
ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft
above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an
increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if
we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring
the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability
(2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an
eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn/MM
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 8 18:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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