FXUS66 KMTR 240704
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1204 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening
through the weekend
- Temperatures near seasonal averages throughout early next week
- Gradual warming second half of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
(Today and tonight)
Drier air aloft continues to work on a compressed marine layer
overnight into Friday morning. Stratus will push inland overnight
with uncertainty in the extent and timing but expecting less
coverage than the previous couple of nights, however patchy dense
fog is still possible in the valleys, especially the Russian River
Valley in the North Bay. Stratus should also be quicker to retreat
back to the coastline, by late morning Friday as drier air in the
lower boundary layers mixes closer to the surface. Temperatures will
remain similar as yesterday and remain so into the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)
The expansive dome of high pressure centered over the Four Corners
region and the persistent troughing pattern over the EPAC has us
comfortably in the middle, with steady onshore flow at the surface
and temperatures hovering right around normal for this time of year
through the weekend into the beginning of next week. There's no
dramatic pattern change indicated in the extended guidance. We
will see gradual warming by the middle and end of next week as
Fausto drifts northwest and mid/upper level heights rise in
response to the troughing getting shifted north. See beaches
section for impacts from Fausto along our Pacific coastline for
the weekend into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1013 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Stratus coverage is limited attm and mostly confined to the coast
line. Short term guidance indicates an expectation that all
terminals will drop to at least MVFR with Monterey Bay terminals
and KSTS dropping to IFR by sunrise. Given current satellite
trends decided to keep South Bay terminals VFR through the
forecast period.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with low confidence in timing of
MVFR ceilings spreading over the terminals. Once at MVFR, clearing
times should be by late morning with KOAK first followed by KSFO
an hour later as stratus retreats back to the coast under a
compressed marine layer.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR, with limited coverage of stratus
attm despite a ceiling earlier in the evening at KMRY. Stratus is
forming on the lee side of the peninsula as wind blows from north
to south without much back building into the Bay. Short term
guidance is confident that MVFR then IFR ceilings will develop,
will have to continue to monitor satellite trends. Clearing is
expected by early afternoon at the latest with VFR through the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1013 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Moderate to fresh northwest breezes with strong gusts will
continue into the weekend, with moderate wind driven seas.
Hurricane Fausto will produce long period south to southwest swell
that persist into the beginning of next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 114 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Hurricane Fausto in the tropical Eastern Pacific will generate a
long period southwesterly swell which is forecast to reach the
coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast this
upcoming weekend. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are
the primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10
feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points
(like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach).
Sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets
(breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between
them. This can potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and
resulting in people being swept into the cold water; hence the name
"sneaker". Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks,
and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the
ocean! A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Saturday morning
through Tuesday afternoon for all beaches along the Pacific Coast.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Jul 24 00:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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