FXUS66 KMTR 120118
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
518 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
- Rain showers with a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms
today
- Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Ongoing showers, with brief downpours possible at times this
afternoon, will persist through the remainder of today and tonight.
The well defined center of a slow moving (nearly stationary today)
upper level low off the coast of the Bay Area can be seen clearly on
satellite and radar. Several bands of light to moderate showers will
continue to move onshore through this evening. Our entire area has
seen at least some rainfall over the past 24hrs with coastal areas
and the higher terrain of the coastal ranges seeing between 0.50"-
1.5" and lower lying interior locations seeing around 0.10"-0.50".
A slight chance of (sub-severe) thunderstorms continues through the
remainder of the afternoon over the Central Coast with surface based
CAPE values ranging between 200-400 (or a little higher in some
spots), however with the vertically stacked nature of the upper low
attm, there is essentially no shear to tap into the instability.
Thus, rainfall will gradually taper off overnight and be mostly done
by sunrise Thursday morning over land, with showers continuing
offshore tracking south with the upper low during the day tomorrow.
Highs Thursday will increase 3-5 degrees from today, with morning
clouds clearing for most locations in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Positively tilted shortwave ridging begins to set in across our area
Thursday night with coastal fog and drizzle possible Friday and
Saturday morning. Temperatures will be near or slightly below
seasonal values Friday and Saturday, mainly the upper 50s to mid-
60s. A deepening offshore trough Saturday night with decreases in
midlevel heights and thickness values will lead to increasing rain
chances through the day on Sunday, which will begin a wet pattern
that will persist through the remainder of the extended forecast.
By early Sunday morning, we'll see the influence of the deepening
trough begin to impact the coast before gradually progressing inland
during the day. Wind gusts up to 25-30mph early Sunday morning will
increase to 35-40mph by Sunday afternoon along with increasing rain
chances throughout the day, first along the coast then pushing
farther inland. The exact details of the larger scale pattern lacks
consensus, however the highly amplified longwave pattern and
continuous troughing expected to produce numerous waves of
precipitation over the next one to two weeks is supported by todays
update from the Climate Prediction Center, highlighting the West
Coast with above normal chances for precipitation and cooler than
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
Satellite imagery this evening shows the surface low
just offshore of the North Bay area, with bands of rain moving
onshore. This will bring periodic reductions in cig and vis, likely
to the MVFR category, perhaps lower at times while being accompanied
with gusty winds up to 22kt at times. Outside of the rainbands, VFR
conditions prevail. CAMs show showers lingering through the
overnight hours and with conditions beginning to dry out by mid to
late morning. Though a few rogue showers may linger into the early
afternoon. Something to watch for Thu evening and overnight hours
will be the development of fog with light winds and clear skies.
Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence for the SFO TAF this
afternoon. Rain chances should increase over the next hour or so the
next band moves onshore. Winds should remain breezy, generally
around 08-15kt, with perhaps some isolated gusts to 20-22kt between
now and 5Z. Winds should moderate to 10kt or less during the
overnight hours. CAMs show lingering showers overnight, thus I
adjusted the TAF to account for that with chances for rain
decreasing Thursday morning. Dry conditions should hold for Thursday
afternoon and evening. May need to monitor for fog early Fri
morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the
period, unless showers skirt by which could then drop cigs and vis
down to MVFR conditions. Dry conditions are expected by Thursday
morning, with winds taking an onshore component by the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 518 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
Moderate winds will prevail tonight, with moderate to rough seas
are forecast. While westerly to northwesterly swell will dominate,
south to southwesterly swell will persist mainly for inner and
outer waters south of the Monterey Peninsula. Moderate to rough
seas are forecast this weekend, with a potential for 12 to 15
second period swell. This will equate to hazardous boating and
near-shore conditions.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through late
Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 11 20:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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