FXUS66 KMTR 250724
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1224 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026
- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening
through the weekend
- Temperatures near seasonal averages throughout early next week
- Gradual warming by the end of next week with increasing
Moderate HeatRisk potential across the interior
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1222 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026
(Today and tonight)
Persistence forecast with very little change in ambient weather
conditions from 24hrs ago and no guidance indicating that the
remainder of tonight and tomorrow will unfold much different than
what we saw today. Dry air just above the marine layer continues to
disrupt the inland intrusion we normally see this time of year, but
not prevent it entirely, as persistent troughing over the EPAC and
the western flank of high pressure centered over the Four Corners
region continue to intersect over the Bay Area and Central Coast.
The most impactful concern is the Beach Hazards Statement that goes
into effect later this morning. Long period southerly swell from
distant Fausto will make for dangerous sneaker waves and riptides.
Never turn your back on the ocean and swim near lifeguards this
weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1222 AM PDT Sat Jul 25 2026
(Sunday through Friday)
Normal temperatures for this time of year will continue through the
weekend into the first half of next week, with very little change
day-to-day through the middle of the week. Interior temperatures
begin to rise a little more by the second half of the week as the
area of high pressure expands westward and Fausto helps to push
the persistent trough north and we begin to see H50 height rises
over the EPAC. We begin to see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk
across the interior by the end of the week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
VFR conditions for all terminals other than KHAF early this
evening. Satellite looks remarkably similar at this hour as it
did the same time last night, thus expecting similar outcome
through the remainder of the TAF period. Dense valley fog may
once again drop KSNS into IFR/LIFR but is not currently in the
TAF.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR with some stratus development in vicinity of
both terminals, however don't expect it to filling until late in
the overnight period with mid-morning clearing. Breezy onshore
flow will persist through the overnight and become gusty once
again Saturday afternoon but shouldn't be as strong as this
afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Guidance suggests higher confidence in
MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop, however current satellite trend
indicate otherwise, but that can change quickly. Have MVFR
ceilings developing after midnight and lifting by late morning
with VFR through the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 503 PM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Moderate to fresh northwest breezes with strong to near gale-foce
gusts will continue through the weekend. Moderate wind driven
seas will also prevail, resulting in potentially hazardous boating
conditions, even across the portions of SF and Monterey Bays.
Long period southerly swell from tropical cyclone activity will
arrive tonight and persist into the beginning of next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 830 AM PDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Hurricane Fausto in the tropical Eastern Pacific will generate a
long period southwesterly swell which is forecast to reach the
coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast this
weekend. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the
primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet
along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like
Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). Sneaker
waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking
waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. This
can potentially catch beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people
being swept into the cold water; hence the name "sneaker". Rip
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from
shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach,
and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! A
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Saturday morning through
Tuesday afternoon for all beaches along the Pacific Coast.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM PDT this morning through
Tuesday afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday
for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Jul 25 02:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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