FXUS66 KMTR 150702
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1202 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Thursday morning with
increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
week with seasonable June temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(Today and tonight)
An extensive stratus deck has made its way from the coast into the
Sonoma County valleys, the Monterey Bay region, and the northern
Salinas Valley with a patch of stratus developing near the Berkeley
Hills. The stratus deck is expected to develop across the valleys
with moderate to high confidence that the interior East Bay remains
clear through the night. Stratus will retreat to the immediate
coastal area after sunrise before it starts to build again this
evening.
The weather pattern across California is dominated by the fringes of
a ridge over the Pacific Northwest and adjacent waters in the
Pacific. Temperatures will generally range from near to slightly
above seasonal averages in the Bayshore and inland regions, to below
seasonal averages along the coast. With the raw NBM model output
continuing to overshoot observed temperatures, I have tamped down
the temperatures within the marine layer influence, which extends
around 1500 feet thick based on observations from the profiler at
Bodega Bay. Highs in the inland valleys reach the 80s, up to the
lower to middle 90s in the warmest interior spots, the upper 60s to
the 70s across the Bayshore regions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s
along the Pacific coast. Most of the area will see Minor HeatRisk,
corresponding to heat that is common during the summer period and
comes with a low risk for heat-related illnesses amongst extremely
sensitive populations. Isolated regions within the area, including
the southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior
portions of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within
the Central Coast, including Pinnacles National Park, will see
Moderate HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat-related
illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the
elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people
who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or
hydration. We continue to encourage people taking part in outdoor
activities big or small to stay hydrated and take breaks in the
shade.
Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas
through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with
surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us
the highest tides of the summer season. Tonight's high tide has
passed at the San Francisco tide gauge, where a water level of 1.97
feet above normally dry ground, or 7.81 feet MLLW, was observed at
11:18 PM on Sunday, which breaks the record for the highest water
level observed during the summer season (outside the winter storm
season of November to March) which was just set on Saturday evening.
The next high tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft
MLLW) at 12:02 AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW)
at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at
1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is
continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip
currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday
morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main
takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)
The ridge should gradually fill in through Tuesday and Wednesday,
allowing the temperatures to remain relatively stable through the
middle of the week. Towards Thursday and Friday, troughing should
develop across the eastern Pacific and move into the western United
States, allowing temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages
into the upcoming weekend. Highs will range from the middle 70s to
the lower 80s across the inland valleys and the upper 60s to the
middle 70s along the Bays. Chances for rain are confined to the
offshore regions and the Sierra Nevada range to the east of the
forecast area. Towards the beginning of next week, ensemble model
cluster analysis suggests some form of ridging will return to the
western United States, and the 8-14 day outlook features a lean (40-
60% probability) towards temperatures above seasonal averages for
the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
The coastal stratus deck is set to impact the region overnight,
except for LVK and the interior East Bay valleys. The stratus deck
is expected to be about 1000 feet deep through the overnight hours
which will bring IFR-MVFR ceilings to most terminals through Monday
morning. Medium confidence on the exact timing of stratus impacts.
Overnight winds will be locally influenced by the surrounding
terrain of the terminals, though they are expected to remain as
light to gentle breezes. Winds will gradually increase by late
Monday morning to a moderate westerly breeze and persist through the
afternoon. Another round of MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated Monday
night, though it is not expected to be as widespread.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions paired with a gentle westerly
breeze persists until ~11Z, which is roughly when the surrounding
stratus deck will begin to fill in over SFO. When it does,
conditions will transition to IFR until Monday morning. Onshore
winds increase to moderate strength (~15 kt) by the afternoon and
diminish by the evening. Medium confidence on timing of stratus
impacts as some model guidance hinted at an earlier onset by a
couple of hours. I settled on a later timing based on the trend from
previous nights.
SFO Bridge Approach...Wind pattern is similar to SFO, but will have
more of a NW component. MVFR-IFR ceilings settle in earlier than SFO
(~08-09Z) and are expected to dissipate at roughly the same time.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC...Current satellite imagery is showing some
low stratus formation east of OAK. Coastal stratus is also beginning
to make its way towards SJC from the west. IFR ceilings are expected
to impact OAK first and SJC second with gentle westerly breezes
overnight. Conditions shift back to VFR by late Monday morning and
west to northwest winds increase to 10-12kt as well. Higher
confidence for stratus to return at OAK Monday night, meanwhile SJC
remains VFR through the TAF period.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings impact the
region and are expected to become IFR overnight until late Monday
morning. Moderate onshore winds persist through the afternoon with
SNS experiencing frequent gusts up to 20 kts. Medium to high
confidence on stratus returning to both terminals Monday night as
the onshore winds diminish.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Southerly breezes and moderate seas persist with a low south-
southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will
remain fairly consistent through Monday as the seas subside.
Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer
waters towards Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist
through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are
advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches
along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz
counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has
been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach
conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach
much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by
surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from
shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach,
and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 15 02:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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