FXUS66 KMTR 150652
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1152 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
- Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a
cooling trend begins Sunday into next week
- Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and
very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and
Friday
- Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid
next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
(Tonight through Friday)
Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher
elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through
Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon
and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over
Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore
winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to
gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance
keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph
with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g.
Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO-
WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb
Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and
suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer
into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but
slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are
expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and
overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s
to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst
recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry
conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the
potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less
wildfire.
Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the
80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy
Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more
widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during
peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking
frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out
through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect
minimal cloud coverage overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level
ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High
temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but
cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad
troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the
70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get
our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure
system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring
much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens
and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below
normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to
low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through
late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central
Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain
is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to
meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low
(<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be
something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. &&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Generally VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period, with some
high resolution models depicting patchy coastal stratus developing
tonight. Low confidence in HAF getting fog and low stratus. If it
does happen, the most likely period for development would be 08-11Z
before offshore winds mix out the lower layers. Light winds persist
overnight, before a moderate offshore push in the interior Thursday
morning, balanced by a gentle onshore flow developing in the
afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light
winds overnight will turn offshore Thursday morning before moderate
northwest flow resumes in the afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light to
gentle offshore winds persist overnight into Thursday morning before
the moderate northwest flow resumes afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 959 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Moderate seas persist across the outer waters through Friday while
the inner waters see slight to moderate seas. During this time
frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which should lead to
building seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 502 AM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for
the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. The main
areas of concern will be for the North Bay Interior Mountains and
East Bay Hills. The strongest winds look to be over the North Bay
Interior Mountains where gusts 30-40 mph are possible, perhaps up to
45mph or higher for the highest elevations. The East Bay Hills will
be breezy as well, but may be closer to 25-35 mph with locally
higher gust for exposed ridges and areas of higher terrain. Both
areas will be dry with poor overnight RH recovery, which combined
with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to
the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Oct 15 02:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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