Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 122024
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1224 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Rain showers taper off by late morning with dry weather 
through Friday

- Hazardous beach conditions late Thursday night through early 
Saturday morning

- Widespread rain and gustier winds return Saturday and persist 
into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1211 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
(Tonight through Friday Night) 

While dry conditions are forecast during the short term, there will 
be the potential for pockets of fog. Satellite imagery at this hour 
has revealed mostly clear conditions, outside of some developing 
stratocumulus due to daytime heating. All in all, it should be a 
very pleasant afternoon which is a nice contrast to the last several 
days rain. 

Observed 72 hour rainfall amounts have ranged from 3-6" across the 
Santa Lucia Range, 1-3" across the Santa Cruz Mountains, and 0.25-2" 
elsewhere. Northerly 925mb flow of around 15 knots with surface 
winds largely under 10 knots in tandem with mostly clear skies 
should be sufficient to allow for radiational cooling. If these 
winds are a little stronger, however, this may limit cooling and 
thus fog production. That said, recent rainfall will contribute to 
the overall fog threat. Assuming winds diminish sufficiently and 
skies remain clear, additional moisture flux from recent rainfall 
will foster fog development. In some spots, fog may reduce 
visibility down to 1/4 mile. At this time, the most probable regions 
for fog will be across the North Bay, parts of the Santa Clara 
Valley, and interior portions of the Central Coast. Regardless of 
where you are, be sure to allow for extra driving time on Friday 
Morning as sudden changes in visibility may transpire along your 
route. Temperatures tonight will also be lower than the past few
days, with some of the aforementioned regions most likely to see
fog dipping down into the mid 30s. If winds really cease, some of
the NBM 10th percentile may verify in spots with temperatures in
the upper 20s. For now, the areal coverage of MinT regions below
the mid 30s precludes the need for any cold weather products, but
it may not be a bad idea to bring in or cover any sensitive
plants and tend to any sensitive animals our crops. 

Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast through the day on Friday as 
500mb shortwave ridging builds and offshore flow increases slightly 
during the day. 


&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1211 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Late Friday night into early Saturday, low level flow be become more
southerly. As the winds shift, low level wind shear may tend to 
keep the boundary layer mixed to keep the areal coverage of fog in
check. As noted above, if winds are stronger (or weaker) than 
advertised, the coverage of fog may be less (or more if winds are 
weaker). 

PoPs re-enter the forecast as early as Saturday mid-morning, 
however, there are some caveats associated with this. A compact 
upper low is forecast to amplify and move closer to the CA 
coastline. As is frequently the case, the upper troughs/lows that 
are undergoing amplification will typically be a little slower to 
move eastward. NWP for the upcoming weekend seem to be following 
this trend with initial forecasts offering broad-brushed PoPs across 
much of the Bay Area and Central Coast by 18Z (10AM PST) Saturday, 
with the latest precip forecast confining 20 PoP to the western 
Sonoma Hills. Hi-res NWP is even less bullish with measurable 
rainfall before 18Z Saturday. For now, we'll roll through NBM PoPs 
for one more cycle, but alterations may be warranted such that 
Saturday is largely rain-free. Saturday MaxT are anticipated to be a 
few degrees lower than Friday as cloud cover invades and translates 
to filtered sunshine. 

Sunday and into early next week will feature a more active weather 
pattern. The overall synoptic weather pattern yields high confidence 
that widespread rainfall will take shape through the day on Sunday. 
Surface cyclogenesis should translate to a tightening of the 
MSLP/low-level high gradient. This should allow southerly winds to 
increase. 925mb flow ramps up to around 40 knots, especially 
along the Pacific Coast which could translate to the potential for
gusty surface winds. The chances for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph 
(35 knots) on Sunday are greatest along the Big Sur Coastline, 
with probabilities around 70%. Low to medium probabilities 
(40-60%) of wind gusts above 40 mph span other Pacific Coast 
regions as well as across the higher terrain of the Bay Area and 
Central Coast for Sunday and Monday. 

With the larger synoptic scale pattern favoring more in the way of 
storm systems through our region next week, we'll likely have to 
contend with cumulative effects from periods of rainfall. There do 
remain some differences with regard to speed and placement of 
various systems and this translates to a few scenarios that have 
near equal chances of panning out. What we are confident on is that 
most if not all areas will see measurable rainfall at some point 
next week as even low-end scenarios offer 48 hour QPF ending Tuesday 
Evening  of 1-2", while the higher end (90th percentile) advertise a 
general 3-5" of rainfall with 4-6" across the Coastal ranges. 
Because storm systems will likely be occuring within close spatial 
proximity to one another, runoff and subsequent flooding may unfold. 
We will continue to fine tune messaging as we go through the 
weekend, but those across the area should be prepared for rainfall 
and potential flood issues as we progress through next week.   

Finally, there will be an opportunity for snow across the peaks of
the North Bay Mountains, Santa Lucia Range, and the Gabilan Range
as we progress into next week. A little too early to determine
exact amounts, but snow levels are forecast to drop down below
4,000 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions persist across much of the region this morning with 
the exception of KLVK where stratus and patchy fog developed within 
the past few hours. Expecting these conditions to return to VFR by 
late morning with a slight increase in onshore winds this afternoon 
and evening. Winds ease into the night and early Friday morning 
before onshore winds return and increase by Friday afternoon. There 
is moderate confidence for sub-IFR conditions at KLVK and KSTS 
Friday morning. There is also moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR 
ceilings at the Bay Area terminals early Friday morning between 12Z-
18Z. Low to moderate confidence for IFR/MVFR at the Monterey Bay 
terminals early Friday morning. Ceilings and/or visibilities are 
likely to improve after 18Z Friday. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds forecast to return by this 
afternoon before easing late in the night. Moderate confidence for 
IFR/MVFR ceilings early Friday morning between 12Z-18Z. Onshore 
winds increase once again by Friday afternoon. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds forecast to return by 
the afternoon before easing after sunset. Low to moderate confidence 
for IFR/MVFR at the Monterey Bay terminals early Friday morning. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 834 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

Winds will generally relax throughout the remainder of the
morning with a shift to a fresh northerly breeze developing this
evening and continuing into Friday. Moderate to rough seas are
forecast Friday into the weekend, with 14 to 18 second period
northwest swell coming through the waters. This will equate to
hazardous boating and near-shore conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 943 AM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

Hazardous beach conditions return to the Pacific Coast beaches, 
excluding the northern Monterey Bay, Thursday evening and 
continue through early Saturday morning. A moderate to long period
swell will arrive late this evening and will result in an 
increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, in 
addition to breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. If you decided to 
visit the beach, remember your beach safety tips. Stay off of 
jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain 
out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back 
on the ocean. 

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM PST this evening through late 
     Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST 
     Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Feb 12 12:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service