FXUS66 KMTR 162020
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
120 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased
risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
week with seasonable June temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)
Morning stratus and fog has retreated back to the coastal areas
early this afternoon with mostly sunny skies over much of the CWA.
The marine layer remains around 100-1500 feet and should reamin in
that range tomorrow. With a similar marine layer expected tomorrow
an extensive area of stratus and fog, similar to this morning, is
expected tomorrow morning. Stratus will start to move back inland
around or a few hours prior to sunset tonight.
High pressure remains in place over Western CONUS with H5 heights
(590-592 dm) similar to slightly higher than that of yesterday. With
similar H5 heights temperatures this afternoon will be around, or a
few degrees warmer than yesterday's afternoon high temperatures.
Inland areas are forecasted to see afternoon highs in the 80s and
90s with coastal areas seeing highs in the 60s to low 70s. These
temperatures will lead to widespread Minor HeatRisk, with localized
areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Make sure to continue to practice smart
heat safety (especially if you're more sensitive to the heat) by
limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if
outdoors), and staying hydrated.
Tomorrow the high pressure system will start to break down leading
to the beginning of our upcoming cooling trend, especially for
inland areas. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be
around 2-5 degrees cooler tomorrow across the inland areas. Similar
temperatures are expected along the coast due to the influence of
the marine layer (which will be similar to today's).
Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas
through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with
surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us
the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to
be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and
1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In
addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases
the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach
Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES
section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn
your back to the ocean!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
On Thursday the aforementioned ridge will continue to break down
with a weak upper level trough moving into the Eastern Pacific. This
trough will then move across the region Friday and Saturday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances with this trough will reamin in the higher
terrain to the north and east of the CWA. Our area will remain dry
with the exception of some areas of drizzle off the coast early
Friday. Additionally this trough will cause a cooling trend as the
marine layer deepens allowing for the cooler marine air to migrate
further inland leading to cooler temperatures. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 70s to low 80s, which is
about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Weak
troughing continues over the region on Sunday, with ridging starting
to push back into our area early next week leading to a warming
trend, especially for the inland areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
VFR at most terminals (except for KHAF) as the stratus layer has
retreated to our coastline. Moderate W to SW winds increase by the
afternoon meanwhile the interior valleys maintain a moderate NW to
Westerly wind flow through the afternoon. The marine layer will make
another push inland this evening with a depth of about 1000-1200
feet, thereby making it difficult to fill into KLVK. Elsewhere, IFR-
MVFR ceilings are anticipated as early as 00-01Z Wednesday for
coastal sites and 05Z for inland terminals. These low ceilings will
persist through the overnight hours and scatter out by late
Wednesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions prevail through the day. Gentle NW
winds will become more westerly and increase to a moderate breeze
(12-15kt) into the evening. The coastal stratus deck begins to
funnel in the surrounding area this evening (04Z Wednesday) and will
eventually impact SFO with IFR ceilings overnight (~10Z). Medium
confidence on exact timing of stratus impacts and ceilings may
initially bounce between IFR-MVFR before becoming fully IFR. Leaned
more on the pessimistic side given how compressed the marine layer
will be. Clouds are expected to scatter out by 16Z Wednesday as
onshore winds increase.
SFO Bridge Approach...Gentle to moderate winds remain more NNW
through the afternoon and diminish to a gentle breeze overnight.
Begins to develop a ceiling around 06Z Wednesday which will then
evolve to an IFR (BKN009) ceiling slightly before SFO. Transitions
back to VFR by 16/17Z Wednesday.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC...VFR through the afternoon. Onshore winds
increase to 10-14kt by the afternoon and ease overnight. OAK will
develop IFR ceilings about an hour before SJC experiences MVFR
ceilings this evening (05Z and 06Z Wednesday, respectively). OAK
will maintain a westerly flow meanwhile SJC will experience a land
breeze through the night into Wednesday morning. Conditions shift
back to VFR by 17/18Z Wednesday at both sites as onshore winds
increase.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon with westerly
winds averaging around 10-13kt. MVFR ceilings develop at SNS first
with the initial stratus push onshore (01Z Wednesday). Widespread
IFR ceilings develop around sunset time for both terminals and
persist through the overnight hours as winds become light (4-6kt).
The low stratus is expected to scatter out by 16/17Z, similar to the
past few days.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Northerly winds will become fresh to strong for the northern outer
waters resulting in hazardous seas this evening to tomorrow
morning. However, a better onshore push will bring moderate to
fresh winds for San Pablo and San Francisco Bays during the
afternoon and evening hours, as well as near the coast from Point
Sur north to Point Pinos. Otherwise, generally light to gentle
winds to the weekend. Seas will remain slight to moderate to the
weekend with a low south-southwesterly swell across most of the
coastal waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist
through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions
are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped
beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa
Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast
beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check
beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up
the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching
beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into
the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest
swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay
back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside
rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your
back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM....Berislavich
AVIATION...Navarrete
MARINE...DS
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jun 16 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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