FXUS66 KMTR 120606
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1006 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday
- Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions
this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
(This evening through Thursday night)
The warmest day of the week is still on track for this afternoon
with a slight cool down on Thursday as the mid/upper level trough
deepens off of the West Coast. The deepening of the trough will push
the high pressure, which resulted in several days of above normal
temperatures, eastward across the Desert Southwest. Thus,
temperatures cool some 3-8 deg F on Thursday compared to this
afternoon's maximum temperatures. In the next 24-36 hours, a cut-off
low within the larger broad troughing off of the West Coast will
develop at move toward Southern California and Baja California.
Thus, the Bay Area and north Central Coast will see little if any
impacts from this southward tracking low. Prefrontal rain is
forecast to return to return in the coastal ranges late Thursday
night into Friday morning.
Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety
tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf
Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
(Friday through next Tuesday)
The first cold front is forecast to move into the North Bay by mid-
to-late Friday morning and then push southward across the Bay Area
and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will
increase ahead of the boundary and become out of the southwest just
ahead of the cold front. Overall, wind speeds have trended downward
with the latest set of guidance and as still forecast to be
strongest across the Pacific. There remains generally a 10%-15%
chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay and Bay Area on Friday
associated with the destabilization of the atmosphere. Rain totals
from this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the
North Bay (highest in the coastal ranges), 0.5-1.00" for the San
Francisco Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur coast,
and 0.10-0.40" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito
Counties as well as the typical rain shadowed valleys.
On Saturday, mostly dry conditions are forecast over
the region aside from some post frontal rain showers into Friday
night into Saturday morning. However, temperatures will be
noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the 60s across
most low-lying areas and upper 50s in the higher elevations (upper
40s in the peaks). Rainfall from this system is forecast to be
mostly beneficial. However, roadways will be slick and minor
nuisance flooding in the typical poorly drained areas. While the
wind speeds have trended lower, keep up with the latest forecast
information as things have the potential to change.
Another cold front is on tap to impact the region Sunday into Monday
with another one in the middle of the upcoming week. None of these
systems are forecast to stall over any one given region, reducing
the threat of widespread flooding concerns. Be sure to check back
for the latest forecast information as we head into an unsettled
weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
VFR conditions continue this evening with stratus forming over
our offshore waters. The HRRR seems to be depicting this
reasonably well and if it pans out has stratus breaching the coast
between 08-11Z. Any fog or stratus that does develop should erode
by mid morning, leading to another VFR day.
Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence in the forecast as models
struggle to determine if reduced vis and cig return. Kept the
mention of MVFR cigs but that could be too bullish. Think the
timing for it is reasonable, with VFR conditions returning by mid
to late morning. Southerly winds gradually increase throughout the
day, potentially getting to 10-15kt for the afternoon and
evening. Up to a 20% for rain might sneak into SFO as early as 12Z
Fri, though confidence is too low to add in mentions of RA or
VCSH.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the
early overnight hours. We're watching some stratus offshore trying
to snake its way to the Monterey coastline. Guidance shows it
arriving between 9-11Z, and then mixing out by mid to late morning.
Winds will then gradually increase out of the south with VFR
conditions prevailing.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 900 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Wave heights continue to build to above 10 ft by this evening.
Further deterioration is expected Thursday into Friday ahead of a
cold frontal passage on Friday. Moderate rain and strong SW winds
with gale force gusts are expected Friday into Saturday as the
front moves through. By Saturday, incoming NW swell from a distant
hurricane force low will result in high seas with significant
wave heights between 25 to 30 feet. Wave heights decrease slightly
Sunday before another round of high seas takes place Monday.
Small crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in
these conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at
which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM
Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will
impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will
produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very
hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong
rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking
wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell
arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet.
These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in
the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very
high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the
rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the
ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new
round of very high swell arrives Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10
PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition,
long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for
Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Nov 11 22:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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