FXUS66 KMTR 031735
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
935 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
- Strong winds expected along the coast and across higher
terrain Wednesday through Friday
- Offshore winds will bring warmer weather this weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
Low clouds will clear out later this morning and give way to mostly
sunny skies this afternoon. The one exception will be around the San
Francisco Peninsula where clouds may linger throughout much of the
day. With clearing skies, expecting afternoon temperatures to warm
into the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast and mid to upper 60s
across much of the interior (and the Santa Cruz area). Isolated
spots are forecast to exceed 70 deg F this afternoon, especially
across the interior valleys of the Central Coast, areas around
Gilroy, Hollister, and Concord, and interior valleys of Napa County.
These areas have a greater than 70% probability of exceeding 70 deg
F. No updates are anticipated at this time.
RGass
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
(Today and tonight)
With the lunar eclipse underway there is a lot of focus on the
cloud cover this morning. The situation is pretty complex.
Boundary layer averaged winds are actually from the NE, but
surface winds are still onshore for most locations. The SFO-SAC
gradient is +0.9 mb (onshore), but the SFO-WMC gradient is -1.1
mb (offshore). The marine stratus deck is becoming more
organized, and it looks like a race against time for the remaining
clear skies to stay that way before totality. The best chance is
in the interior East Bay and Monterey County, but even those
aren't guaranteed as the stratus closes in over the next hour.
A short wave ridge will dominate the pattern today. This will
bring afternoon temperatures 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. On
the other hand, the ridge and warmer air will help support a
thermal trough near the coast. This will bring an enhanced sea
breeze that will be noticeable for coastal communities. After the
clouds burn off late morning it will be a warm, clear, and breezy
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 121 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)
Another trough moves through on Wednesday, dragging a cold front
across the surface. Overcast skies will be a clear sign of the
front passing through the afternoon and evening. The rain chances
and amounts were already low, but have decreased thanks to the
dry air mass. The real story with this front is wind. Very strong
high pressure will build behind the front, reaching around 1035
mb in the Eastern Pacific. While high pressure is the norm in the
Eastern Pacific, 1035 mb is roughly 15 mb or 1.5 standard
deviations above normal for this time of year. The gradient
between this high pressure and the ~1007 mb low that supported the
cold front will support strong NW winds starting Wednesday and
continuing through Friday night. Gusts will very likely reach gale
force along the coast and across higher terrain. The wind
direction will gradually shift from NW onshore flow to northerly
or NE offshore flow as the 500 mb pattern evolves into an inside
slider by Saturday. The combination of high pressure and offshore
winds will bring a warming trend through the weekend, with most
areas easily reaching the 70s from Saturday through Monday. The
forecast uncertainty grows by the middle of next week. Most
ensemble solutions keep a general ridging pattern, but a few
outliers disagree and bring a more active pattern. The most likely
outcome is a very dry first half of March.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
Lingering MVFR-LIFR stratus and fog continue across the Bay Area
and the southern Monterey Bay region, with further dissipation
expected through the next few hours barring the immediate coast
near Point Reyes and the western side of the San Mateo Peninsula,
where the stratus could linger through the day. A light to gentle
onshore flow will develop this afternoon, lingering into the
evening as the stratus returns to the valleys. The passing of a
cold front may result in some sprinkles overnight into Wednesday
morning, but the main impact will be to maintain a moderate
northwest breeze through the night before winds increase Wednesday
afternoon, after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO... MVFR-IFR stratus lingers for the next couple of
hours. A gentle to moderate west-northwest breeze will develop
through the afternoon and evening hours, with winds remaining gentle
overnight as MVFR stratus returns to the terminal. Stronger winds
are expected to develop on Wednesday as a cold front passes.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... Lingering stratus should dissipate within
the next hour. A gentle northwest breeze should develop in the
afternoon, with light winds this evening as MVFR stratus returns
overnight. Winds begin to increase from the north towards the end of
the TAF period, with clearing of the stratus around or just after
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 846 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
Expect hazardous marine weather conditions Wednesday through
Friday. A moderate northwest breeze today increases to a strong
northwest breeze on Wednesday and near gale force winds by
Thursday. These winds will build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet
across exposed waters Thursday through Friday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST
Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST
Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Mar 3 10:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
|