FXUS66 KMTR 290451
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
951 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026
- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through
early midweek
- Gradual warming starting midweek, with Moderate HeatRisk for
interior locations through the weekend
- Elevated fire weather threat across the interior North and East
Bay, Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week
- Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an
increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the
end of the week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Quick recap for Tuesday, overall sensible weather was pretty
similar to Monday with a large temp gradient from the coast to
the interior. Highs topped out in the upper 50s to mid 70s for the
coast and bays. With the help of northerly/downslope a few
coastal spots reach into the 80s, like Santa Cruz. Farther inland
highs topped out in the upper 70s to near 100 degrees. Pretty
common scenario for this time of year. Given the temp difference
onshore flow was pretty solid too leading to some gusty winds.
Gust of 30-40 mph were observed along the coast, inland
valleys,gaps, and passes.
For tonight, satellite fog product already shows more stratus
coverage than 24 hours ago. The re-established marine layer will
continue to fill in overnight with more inland coverage by
Wednesday morning.
No update needed this evening. The biggest weather impacts over
the next 7 days will be lingering fire weather, hazardous beaches
due to dangerous surf conditions, and building heat the rest of
the week.
MM
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 (This evening through
Wednesday night)
Water vapor imagery continues to show a relatively deep trough of
low pressure situated along the West Coast, with an embedded
shortwave moving into the Pacific Northwest at this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the dry slot remains situated over the Central
California, with sunny skies prevailing this afternoon except
along portions of the immediate coast, where the marine layer
remains. As a result, most locations are running similar to or
slightly warmer than this time yesterday. Temperatures today will
depend on location, but expect seasonally warm conditions inland,
and a litter cooler than seasonal along the coast. Onshore winds
are also starting to increase this afternoon, with breezy
conditions continuing through the evening hours, which should
help moderate temperatures a bit as well. Expect another pleasant
evening and cool overnight conditions prevailing. Between the
predominately clear skies, decreasing winds, and dry air in place,
we should see another night of good radiational cooling. Most
locations will be in the 50s to lower 60s, with the coldest spots
dipping into the upper 40s despite the time of year. Conversely, the
thermal belted regions will struggle to cool once again, with
temperatures remaining in the mid 60s to around 70.
Expect the marine layer to make a pretty widespread return tonight
to the inland valleys, another that next disturbance pushes inland
across the West Coast later tonight and during the day on
Wednesday. Therefore, expect another very pleasant day across the
region on Wednesday, with temperatures similar to if not slightly
warmer than today, especially across the inland areas. Palmer
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026 (Thursday through next
Monday)
High pressure will then start to expand from the Desert Southwest
into the region on Thursday, and continue to build for Friday and
into the weekend. As a result, even drier and warmer conditions
will prevail, especially across on inland areas. In fact,
confidence is high that the inland areas will be down right hot,
with the hottest locations potentially ranging between 100 and
110. 850 mb temperatures support this, as they appear to warm into
the mid to upper 20 deg C range, peaking on Saturday. The
confidence for the coastal areas though are moderate at best and
less clearly defined. Temperatures along the coast will still
largely be dependent on the marine layer, which should be
considerably squashed, and the wind regime. While winds over all
appear to remain relatively light through the period, some weak
onshore flow looks like it will continue to persist along the
coast, giving coastals areas some reprieve from the hottest
temperatures.
The ensembles remain divergent for Sunday through early next
week, as to whether the heat will linger longer or finally start
to retreat. At this point in time, like the idea of the NBM, which
kind of splits the difference, with inland areas remaining quite
warm, just not as hot as the weekend, while coastal areas are more
seasonal. Palmer
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
No major changes as mainly VFR conditions prevail across the region,
the exception being along the immediate coast where stratus slowly
blossoms. Look for clear skies for interior terminals, and MVFR to
IFR conditions for coastal terminals impacted by the stratus. Skies
should begin to clear mid morning for most sites, with another
afternoon of clear skies and breezy onshore winds.
Vicinity of SFO...Clear skies for now, though stratus is slowly
meandering toward SFO and is visible on various webcams in the area.
A medium confidence level remains on the arrival of the stratus, as
most guidance has clouds coming into the site between 8-10Z.
Satellite has it flirting just west of the airport, so the earlier
timing, which was 5-7Z, remains possible. Opted to hold the later
time, though this may need to be adjusted with in the next couple of
hours if it actually makes it onsite. Skies will clear by mid to
late morning.
In terms of the wind, breezy onshore winds will continue to
gradually decrease tonight. However, they will return again
Wednesday afternoon, but may not have as early of a start. Guidance
shows winds picking up between 20-00Z, rather than 18Z. Moderate to
high confidence in the wind timing portion of o the forecast.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the signal for stratus is not
as strong. Opted to hint at the possibility of it returning, though
confidence is low.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus quickly filled in around the
southern half of the Bay this evening; however, it has eroded some
around the KSNS. Stratus for KMRY should hold through overnight
hours, with KSNS likely returning to MVFR and IFR cigs later
tonight. Skies should clear by mid morning for KSNS and KMRY should
follow with clearing occuring during the late morning or the early
afternoon. Breezy onshore winds return tomorrow afternoon, with 15-
20kt gusts lingering through the early evening. Models try to hint
at stratus returning during the evening hours, opted to bring it
back for KMRY but hold of any re-introduction to KSNS for the time
being. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 950 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Fresh to strong northwest breezes with near gale force gusts will
continue through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Gale
force gusts with moderate seas are expected along coastal jet
regions along Big Sur and Point Reyes. Additionally, gale force
winds are possible for the northern outer waters by the end of the
weekend. Tropical activity will also continue to produce long
period swell along our coastal waters into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of
the area through at least this weekend. Overnight RH recovery
will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet
with values between 35 to 50 percent, with some favored locations
struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly
true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills,
the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan
Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre-
dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period
or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon RH
will remain critically dry with values between 20 and 40 percent,
with far southern portions of the interior Central Coast
potentially seeing min RH near 10 percent. Energy Release
Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile
across the interior Central Coast. Individuals across the area are
advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are
urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed
burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 155 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 16-18 seconds will
continue to impact our coastline over the next several days,
bringing hazardous beach conditions to the Central Coast and the
San Francisco Bay Area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents
will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 12 feet
along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points,
such as Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach.
This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase
suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In
fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger
sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times
between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful
and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets
being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are
strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore.
Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a
lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water,
and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other
waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if
you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye
on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist
through Saturday afternoon.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jul 28 22:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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