FXUS66 KMTR 150543
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
943 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
- Stay away from the beach!
- Very hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast today with
breaking waves 25 to 35 feet
- Next round of rain and wind expected Sunday and into Monday
- Unsettled weather expected to continue into much of the
upcoming week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Extremely high surf conditions have impacted the coastal regions
today with reports of flooding along the coast in Pacifica and
damage to the Capitola Wharf and debris along shoreline roads
south of Carmel-by-the-Sea. The High Surf Warning will expire at 4
AM Sunday, with a High Surf Advisory likely to follow.
The model trend for a more impactful system on Wednesday and
Thursday continues with the forecast rainfall, expected wind
speeds, and thunderstorm probabilities all increasing. Model
output is starting to converge on a significant low pressure
system that may take a direct track over the SF Bay Area through
that period. More information will be coming in the full AFD
update.
DialH
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)
In wake of yesterday's frontal passage, isolated to scattered
rain showers are forecast to persist across the North Bay and
parts of the Bay Area through early evening as many of the CAMs
(Convection- Allowing Models) are indicating them to persist.
Otherwise, expecting a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day
with temperatures slightly below seasonal averages.
This is all ahead of our next cold front that is expected to move
across the North Bay between 8 AM and 4 PM Sunday, the Bay Area
and the Santa Cruz Mountains between noon and 8 PM, and the
Central Coast between 4 PM and midnight Monday morning. There are
subtle differences in the timing of the front's arrival, resulting
in broader windows of expected arrival times. Southerly winds are
forecast to increase ahead of the front, although they are not
expected to be as strong as with the previous system. The
potential for thunderstorms is also lower.
Rain totals will range from 0.50"-1.0" across most of the Bay
Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia range, 1.0"-1.5" in
the Sonoma County coastal ranges, and 0.25"-0.50" across the
interior portions of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds
will be elevated, but will not be as strong as Friday's system
with southerly gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible across the SF Bay
Area, up to 45 mph along the coast and in the higher elevations.
In wake of the frontal passage, expecting winds to shift out of
the northwest and ease.
See the BEACHES section for more details, but to quote: "These waves
bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in the water and
cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this
weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or
leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean."
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 103 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(Monday through next Friday)
Another break in rainfall is expected late in the day on Monday
and into Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds. By Tuesday morning,
there is the potential for cold weather products (Frost
Advisories and/or Cold Weather Advisories) as morning lows are
forecast to be in 30s across the North Bay Valleys, southern
Salinas Valley, and 40s elsewhere across the Bay Area and Central
Coast.
Yet another system comes into the region Tuesday
afternoon/evening and moves southward across the north Central
Coast through Wednesday and potentially lingering into early
Friday morning. It is still too early to speak about rainfall
amounts, yet there is increasing confidence (as of this writing)
of higher rainfall amounts compared to the Sunday/Monday system.
There also appears to be greater potential for thunderstorms and
stronger winds ahead of the frontal boundary. Best written by my
colleague: "The flooding concerns will increase through the next
few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams reach bankfull.
Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern remains active
with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal averages into the
last week of November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Currently VFR across the board with conditions to deteriorate by
mid to late Sunday morning. A cold front will approach the region
overnight with light, southerly winds continuing. Winds strengthen
slightly ahead of frontal passage before shifting westerly to
northwesterly after passage occurs. Rain chances increase first
across the North Bay early Sunday morning and by the late
morning/afternoon hours for the rest of the Bay Area. Rain will
reach the Central Coast later in the evening. Reductions in
visibility and decreases in ceiling heights are likely as the bulk
of the rain moves in. Showers will become more scattered in nature
by late Sunday and continue into Monday.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. MVFR conditions return by late tomorrow
morning/early afternoon as a cold front and rain approach the
region. Southerly winds will gradually shift west to northwesterly
throughout the day. Rain looks to continue through the end of the
TAF period, becoming more scattered in nature around or after 12Z
Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Moderate southerly winds continue
through the short term with winds shifting more northwesterly
towards the end of the TAF period. Rain chances increase after 00Z
and continue through the rest of the night. Reductions in
visibility and ceiling heights are likely as showers start to
arrive.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Moderate to fresh southerly winds continue across the coastal
waters as a cold front approaches from the north. Expect fresh to
strong winds to become more widespread overnight and continuing
into Sunday with widespread rain. Very hazardous marine
conditions and high seas continue into early next week.
Significant wave heights have come down slightly from their
earlier peak but will remain between 15 to 20 feet through Monday
before subsiding Tuesday. Wave heights build again Wednesday into
late week as a strong low pressure system moves through the
coastal waters and brings widespread rain, near gale to gale
force winds, and potential for thunderstorms.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 932 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
High Surf Warning:
A High Surf Warning remains effect through 4AM Sunday. Pretty
impressive buoy reports this morning with the highest sig waves
exceeding 25-30 ft. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely
at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). Swell has peaked and is
on the downtrend but wave heights will remain elevated overall. A
High Surf Advisory will be issued to replace the High Surf Warning
when it expires at 4AM Sunday. A new round of very high swell
arrives Monday with the High Surf Advisory to continue from 4AM
Sunday through early Tuesday morning. These waves bring tremendous
power that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal
erosion. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go
in the water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over
seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for SF Bay N
of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 15 00:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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