FXUS66 KMTR 111519
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
819 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
- Showers last through much of Saturday with storm chances
rebuilding into the afternoon
- More consistent and widespread rain arrives Saturday night
along with widespread gusty winds
- Showers and storm chances linger into late Sunday before a
warming and drying trend arrives into the work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
The forecast remains on track this morning with no updates currently
anticipated. While rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
will continue throughout the morning and early afternoon, the
greatest threat will be late afternoon through late evening. This is
as a narrow cold-frontal rainband is expected to approach the North
Bay between 2 PM - 5 PM, 4 PM - 7 PM across the Bay Area, and 6 PM -
9 PM across the Central Coast. This will be when we have the
greatest potential for rotating cells that may produce waterspouts
and/or weak tornadoes. In coordination with the Storm Prediction
Center, we remain in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms. The
greatest potential being the threat of southerly wind exceeding 40
knots over the ocean. Wind gusts are also expected to reach up to 50
mph along the coast and in the higher terrain during the
aforementioned timeframes. Any stronger convection will be capable
of producing stronger wind gusts.
RGass
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
(Today and tonight)
Convection for the Bay Area and Central Coast have eased and the
atmosphere continues to stabilize and cool. Passing showers will
continue through the night, but rainfall and localized winds look to
be much more reasonable than the afternoon cells.
Shower activity reduces slightly into the late night, but widespread
off and on showers are still expected. The warming from the sunrise
and the warm sector of the next low pressure will increase mixing in
the morning, leading to slight increases for more convective cells.
Storm chances will continue to build into the afternoon and look to
hit their peak in the late afternoon and early evening. The near-
coast marine environment shows around 35% chance for storms with 20
to 30% for areas overland.
These storm chances reduce as the next cold front moves through the
area, with a fairly narrow and well-organized rain band moves
through the region that evening and into the night. Southerly winds
become gusty just head of the front peaking around 30 mph and some
gusts around 45 mph will be possible, but luckily short-lived. Winds
reduce quickly in the post frontal environment, but remain moderate
to breezy through that night. Post-frontal showers and light chances
for spotty storms will last through Saturday night. Additionally
chances for flurries and possible dustings of snow will be possible
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
(Sunday through Friday)
Chances for scattered storms increase again into Sunday as
conditions warm into the afternoon. These chances may become a bit
more limited due to the increasing cloud cover in the recent
forecast updates and the overall colder flow entering the region,
but will still be a possibility. Highs look to peak in the 50s and
60s for most areas on Sunday, with a few higher elevations failing
to break 50. Shower and storm chances ease that night with some
coastal drizzle possible into early Monday.
Overall remaining rain totals look impressive for this late in the
season:
-Some of the higher coastal peaks are still looking at 2 inches of
additional rainfall, even 3 in a few isolated area.
-Most of the North Bay is looking around an inch to 1.5" and around
2" in the interior mountains.
-The lower elevations around the the SF Bay and Monterey Bay will
range from 0.75" to 1.10". Higher interior elevations 1.25" to 1.75"
-The lowest rainfall totals look to be the Southern Salinas Valley
at 0.20" to 0.50"
Keep in mind, these totals could be massively affected by locally
stronger storms, and the possibility of lines of showers and storms
training over certain areas.
After the low pressure, storm environment, and the last few chances
for precip exit, the forecast calms significantly. Temperatures warm
slowly into the next work week, but with a fair amount of onshore
flow keeping things seasonable. Longer term models show chances for
another trough passing through in the late week, but some place it
more inland. This difference in positioning can mean the difference
between some drizzle and light rain, to increased offshore flow if
the trough is more inland. So something to keep an eye on after all
of the excitement this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Mostly light, scattered showers continue to move through the region.
Shower activity increases after sunrise with some spotty chances for
passing storms. Lower cloud cover raises and scatters into the
afternoon leading to widespread VFR, but with plenty of mid-level
clouds. Southerly winds increase into the afternoon, ranging from 20
to 40 kt gusts across the region. Shower and storm chances increase
in the late afternoon and into the evening ahead of a stronger rain
band that will move through in the evening and early night. The
moderate to heavy rain and stronger winds associated with this rain
band will reduce visibilities. Winds and rain rates reduce behind
this band, but breezy to gusty south to southwest winds last through
much of Sunday morning. Showers become spotty into the night, but
remain possible beyond the forecast period along with slight chances
for storms.
Vicinity of SFO...Lower clouds linger into the mid morning before
thinning and lifting. Winds become breezier and more southerly in the
mid morning and become gusty into the afternoon with scattered
showers and slight chances for storms increasing. The strongest
winds arrive along the narrow cold front this evening, with the
increase rainfall and winds reducing visibilities. Winds reduce
slightly behind the main rain band and shower activity becomes
scattered into the night.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Light southerly winds and passing showers
continue. Shower activity increases into the late morning with
breezier winds building through the day. Spotty storm chances will
be possible amongst the scattered showers. Higher and more
widespread rains arrive along a narrow cold front in the late
evening. This band of rain will offer gustier winds and reduced
visibilities. Showers and slight chances for storms linger behind
the front, with reducing winds into the night.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 818 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Shower activity and chances for storms build into the afternoon.
A strong band of rain moves through Saturday evening and into that
night. Expect gustier winds and rough seas, with isolated gale
force gusts ahead and along this band of rain. Shower activity
lingers behind the rain band, and picks up again into Sunday
afternoon with chances for storms returning. Overall rain chances
exit Sunday night. High pressure builds behind the system with
fresh northwest winds developing early next week, as seas abate to
become moderate through mid week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Apr 11 08:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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