FXUS66 KMTR 260042
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
442 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
- Warmer and drier conditions expect through Saturday, warmest
on Friday afternoon
- Cooler conditions arrive by Sunday and into Monday with a low
end probability for light rain
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Another warm and muggy day expected across the region with
temperatures already in the low to upper 60s. The mugginess is due
to PWAT values up to 1.25" as a ridge of high pressure builds in
from the south. Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures are
expected to be in the low to mid 70s across interior portions of the
Central Coast.
Overnight, low clouds will return to much of the region with
Thursday morning's low temperatures forecast to be in the upper 40s
to low 50s across the North Bay and low 50s across the remainder of
the region. By Thursday afternoon, expecting some of the low clouds
to dissipate, yet mid and high level clouds will remain likely
through much of the day. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s
to low 70s in the North Bay, coastal areas, and much of the greater
San Francisco Bay Area. The warmest temperatures are likely across
the interior Central Coast where there is a greater than 75%
probability of exceeding 75 deg F (yet less than a 25% to exceed 80
deg F). This is as the ridge aloft continued to strengthen across the
Bay Area and Central Coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1220 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
The warming and drying trend will extend into Friday when we are
expecting the warmest temperatures across the region. Temperatures
will warm into the low-to-mid 70s across the North Bay and bayshore.
Meanwhile, we can expect mid-to-upper 70s across the remainder of
the region. There is a 50%-75% probability for exceeding 80 deg F in
the Santa Cruz Mountains and interior areas of the Central Coast.
Thus, HeatRisk will reach the minor category on Friday across much
of the region. Slight cool down on Saturday as an upper level cutoff
low begins to approach the region from the west. However, Saturday
will remain 5-12 degrees above seasonal averages.
Cooler, unsettled weather returns Sunday across the North Bay and
region-wide by Monday as the cutoff low moves across the region.
However, no meaningful precipitation is expected across the region.
The NBM only has up to a 20% probability of seeing greater than
0.25" across the North Bay and generally 10% in the Santa Lucia
Range and Santa Cruz Mountains in a 24-hour period ending 4 AM
Monday morning (up to 15% in the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa
Lucia Range ending at 4 PM Monday afternoon).
By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a short wave ridge will build
in behind the exiting mid/upper level trough. Thus, slight warming
and drying trend is expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
Low clouds stay in place in the North Bay into the night while
portions of and around the SF Bay see modest scattering, and the
Monterey Bay says VFR into the evening. Expect mostly light to
moderate winds and building high clouds through the evening and into
the night. IFR/MVFR CIGs become widespread into the late night and
Thursday morning. Lower clouds look to erode for the late morning
and early afternoon on Thursday, leading to widespread VFR.
Vicinity of SFO...Lower clouds are scattering with building high
clouds. Expect light to moderate west winds well into the night
before winds become light and variable. As the winds weaken, MVFR
CIGs build. These CIGs clear into early Thursday afternoon as
northwest winds increase. Winds reduce again that evening as they
turn more westerly.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the evening and early night
before MVFR CIGs build across the area. Winds at MRY remain light
and variable through the TAF period, while winds from SNS go from
light through the night, to more moderate and southeast into
Thursday morning. Lower clouds erode into the late morning on
Thursday, leading to VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 442 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
Light to moderate winds last through the weekend and into the
middle of the next work week, staying mostly north to
northwesterly. Seas become lighter into the weekend and build
slightly into the next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 25 18:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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