FXUS66 KMTR 082016
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
116 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
- Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part
of next week
- Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday
- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive
populations across the interior early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
(This evening through Saturday)
Low clouds have dissipated across the interior earlier than
yesterday despite the marine layer sitting around 2,000 feet this
morning. As such, temperatures across the interior are forecast to
warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior, in the upper
60s to mid 70s around the San Fransico Bay Shoreline, and upper 50s
to lower 60s in areas that the coastal stratus remains in place
(generally near the coast).
Tonight, expecting less inland intrusion of stratus as the marine
layer compresses and high pressure continues to build in from the
eastern Pacific. There is the potential for mist or light drizzle
again tonight into Saturday morning, yet widespread measurable
rainfall is highly unlikely. We are expecting a few degrees of
warming on Saturday afternoon, especially in the interior where we
are expecting less cloud cover in the morning. However, most
locations across the region will remain in Minor HeatRisk.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Fri May 8 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
The warming and drying trend will continue through the remainder of
the weekend and are forecast to peak on Monday. This is when will
see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. However,
the moderate risk has less areal coverage compared to yesterday's
forecast. This is as we are expecting weaker high pressure aloft and
greater presences of a marine layer early next week. However, Monday
afternoon is still forecast to be the warmest day of the week with
temperatures in the low to upper 90s across the interior, mid 80s to
low 90s across inland away from the coast, and low 70s to mid 80s
near coastal locations.
Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however will
still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The cooling
trend is forecast to continue through the remainder of next week
with temperatures cooling to near seasonal averages as a more zonal
flow returns as the ridge shifts eastward. There remains some
uncertainty beyond the middle of next week as model solutions
diverge. Be sure to check back for the latest developments in the
forecast as we head into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 AM PDT Fri May 8 2026
Marine layer cleared out sooner than this time yesterday at KSTS
and South Bay sites but should clear at the remaining terminals by
Noon PDT. Expect VFR conditions through this afternoon and much of
the overnight except for the Monterey Bay Terminals. The return
of stratus later tonight is more uncertain than the previous
couple of nights, with low confidence in the exact timing and
extent overnight into Saturday morning. Overall, guidance is
leaning toward cigs to develop later during the overnight, closer
to sunrise with less of a marine layer intrusion expected and weak
fetch of offshore flow at around 2kft.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR cigs are expected by Noon PDT and should persist
through the remainder of today into early Saturday morning. Exact
timing of MVFR/IFR cigs is low confidence, with clearing expected
by late Saturday morning once they do develop, with VFR expected
for the remainder of the TAF period after clearing.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs developing
over the Monterey Bay terminals later this evening is higher than
terminals to the north. Less influence from weak offshore flow
aloft and better more persistent marine layer influence. KSNS is
expected to clear sooner with terrain influenced circulation over
Monterey Bay helping pull stratus back while maintaining coverage
over KMRY through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 8 2026
Fresh to strong northwest breeze continue today and will persist
through the weekend as rough seas continue to build. Rough seas
will begin to ease later Sunday into Monday in response to winds
becoming moderate to fresh northerly breezes.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri May 8 18:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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