FXUS66 KMTR 262122 CCA
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
222 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
- Strong northerly winds will bring widespread hazardous marine
and beach conditions through Wednesday morning
- Cooler, unsettled weather conditions remain possible through
Thursday
- Warming and drying trend Friday and beyond
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)
Cool conditions are forecast to prevail today in wake of the early
morning frontal passage. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to
be in the middle-to-upper 50s to middle 60s near the coast with
middle 60s to lower 70s across the interior with amble amount of
sunshine. Speak of sunshine, there is also a chance of rain showers
over Napa County through this evening as the forecast calls for
generally 150-250 J/kg of most unstable CAPE. Some of these rain
showers (if they develop) may move across the interior East Bay this
evening before the loss of daytime heating reduces the instability
aloft. It will also remain breezy through the evening and into
tonight, especially near the coast and in the higher terrain
across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Onshore winds will continue
with gusts of 30-40 mph with isolated gusts up to 50 mph across
the North Bay Interior Mountains and East Bay Hills.
As the cut-off low pressure lingers over northern (today) and
central (tomorrow through Thursday), we are forecasting unsettled
weather conditions to prevail. However, wind speeds are forecast to
diminish slightly. With similar conditions expected on Wednesday, the
greatest potential to see more than 0.10" (15-25% probability) will
be across the interior Bay Area and Monterey/San Benito County.
There is also a chance of thunderstorms, yet they largely remain
less than 15%.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
On Thursday, there is a greater potential for rain showers across
the region with the mid/upper level cut-off low forecast to be just
off of the Bay Area/Central Coast coastline. Thus, PWAT values are
forecast to be around 1.00". However, the thunderstorm potential
will be less as the atmosphere becomes more stable. The NBM
probabilities of seeing greater than 0.25" remain around 10-25% from
11 PM Wednesday night - 11 PM Thursday morning. That said, the
probabilities from the convective-allowing ensemble guidance is
greater than 50% of reaching or exceeding 0.25" across places
outside of the North Bay. All that said, looking like a wide range
of possibilities with varying outcomes as far as rainfall amounts
go, yet widespread flooding concerns remains very low. Just expect
wet roadways across the region during periods of rainfall.
The low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather early
this week will finally shift eastward with a shortwave ridge
building in to the Bay Area/Central Coast. However, more zonal flow
will bring a slight warming and drying trend to the region and is
forecast to prevail into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026
MVFR-VFR with a general decrease in cloud cover today then
increasing cloud cover with a few areas of light rain possible
over the north Central Coast Wednesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind gusting to 35 knots through 05z
this evening, wind diminishing to 10 to 20 knots tonight and
Wednesday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The post frontal environment is bringing
VFR conditions through the day into the evening. Moderate onshore
breezes (12-15 kts) prevail through the TAF period with wind gusts
up to 30 kts. Around 02-03Z Wednesday, MVFR ceilings begin to
develop and deepen over the terminals. Moderate, gusty winds are
expected to diminish late Tuesday night into the overnight hours and
become more gentle (5-10kts). There may be some passing light rain
early Wednesday morning (12Z) at both terminals, though it is not
expected to be impactful if any develops.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1039 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026
Fresh northwest winds will develop with widespread strong to gale
force gusts over the coastal waters today. Gusty winds will
develop over the bays as well. Rough seas will build to between 12
to 15 feet today into late week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay N of
Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay-
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Canepa/Navarrete
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue May 26 16:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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