FXUS66 KMTR 020049
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
449 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
- High astronomical tides combined with storm surge will bring
minor to moderate coastal flooding around high tide through
Sunday
- Strong southerly winds expected Friday night into Saturday
- Slight chance of thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend
- Daily rain likely through early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 145 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
(This evening through Friday)
Rain showers with the potential for isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes more
unstable as peaks of sun are starting to make an appearance. Thus,
heating will result in up to 250-500 J/kg of surface based CAPE.
Convection is starting to pop up across the Central Coast and in the
Santa Cruz Mountains, so this afternoon could be get a bit
interesting. Any heavier showers and thunderstorms that do develop
will be capable of producing small hail, gusty erratic winds, and
possible funnel clouds.
As we head into tonight and early Friday morning, conditions appear
to dry out a bit as a weak shortwave ridge builds into the region.
This will be short lived before an atmospheric river moves through
Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 145 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
A strong fold front will approach the coast with strong southerly
winds developing Friday afternoon with the strongest anticipated to
be ahead of and along the frontal boundary. These stronger winds will
advect deeper moisture with PWAT values between 1.00-1.25" across
the entire Bay Area and Central Coast through Saturday morning.
Additionally, strong showers or thunderstorms will also be likely
through Saturday morning as a result of the stronger winds and
lifting mechanism of the frontal passage. Wind gusts are forecast to
reach between 40-50 mph along the coast and in the higher terrain.
Thus, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the aforementioned
areas from 1 PM Friday through 1 PM Saturday. While these winds will
not be strong as last week, downed trees/limbs may result in
isolated to scattered power outages.
In wake of the frontal passage, 500 mb temperatures will drop to
around -16C to -24C allowing for steepening lapse rates that may
support deeper convection on Saturday. Another reinforcing front is
forecast to arrive Sunday morning and into the afternoon and then
again on Monday, which will bring additional rounds of moderate to
heavy rain. However, southerly winds aren't expected to be as strong
and those Friday night into Saturday. There is still a bit of
uncertainty in the ensemble guidance for the rest of next week,
however conditions look to remain cool and unsettled.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 405 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
An unsettled pattern continues to provide a mix of mostly VFR and
MVFR cigs. We're entering a bit of a lull in widespread rainfall,
but scattered on-and-off showers persist overnight through mid-
morning Friday when a strengthening storm system begins moving
onshore Friday afternoon. Expect strong southerly winds impacting
all terminals by Friday afternoon and persisting through the
remainder of the TAF period with light to moderate rain and a
slight chance of thunderstorms.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to persist through the forecast
period with a slight chance of MVFR cigs when showers are in
vicinity of the terminal. Strong southerly winds may pick up as
early as late morning Friday morning out ahead of the advancing
frontal boundary. Strong winds will then persist through the
remainder of the forecast period with light to moderate showers
and a slight chance for thunderstorms.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR cigs are expected until early
evening with low confidence in MVFR ceilings that may hover
between the two categories. The advancing frontal boundary will
be felt more to the north with lesser impacts for KSNS and KMRY.
However, strong southeasterlies will increase through the Salinas
Valley overnight and remain strong through the remainder of the
TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 449 PM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
Small Craft Advisories are in effect through the overnight,
however may be borderline at times especially for the western
portion of our southern outer waters. After sunrise Friday, gale
force winds quickly spread over our inner and outer waters as a
strong storm system moves on shore over the course of the day.
Along with the strong wind, expect light to moderate showers at
times with a slight chance of thunderstorms and rough seas. Rain
chances and breezy winds continue into next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 900 AM PST Thu Jan 1 2026
Perigean spring tides (King Tides) will impact the region through
Sunday. This is due to the combination of the full moon on 1/3,
lunar perigee on 1/1, and perihelion on 1/3. In other words all
three planetary bodies are lined up and close to each other. In
addition to the high astronomical tide, the incoming low pressure
system will bring strong southerly winds, generating some storm
surge. The combination of these factors will bring minor to
moderate coastal flooding to the low-lying areas near shorelines
and tidal waterways during high tide through Sunday. At the San
Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 2.2 ft above
normal at 9:34 AM Friday, 2.5 ft above normal at 10:26 AM
Saturday, and 1.8 ft above normal at 11:18 AM Sunday. These
predictions include up to 1.3 feet of storm surge that will
enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-506-
508-509-529-530.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-
502>505-509-512-515>518-528>530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Friday for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning from 9 PM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jan 1 18:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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