FXUS66 KMTR 042323
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
323 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work
week.
- Hazardous beach conditions from late tonight through Saturday
evening at Pacific Coast beaches.
- 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday,
with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the
coastal mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
(This evening through Thursday)
Mostly clear skies prevail throughout the San Francisco Bay Area
and Central California Coast this afternoon. A broad, high-
amplitude upper-level ridge remains anchored over California
today, resulting in these exceptionally pleasant February
conditions. 12 PM PST temperatures are generally near to several
degrees above where they were compared to yesterday. Afternoon
maximums will land in mid-60s to upper-70s region-wide, equating
to around 7-15 degrees above normal for this date. Some locations
will be close to daily record highs for the day; please refer to
the Climate section of the discussion for more information.
Upper-level ridge begins to nudge inland more on Thursday as a
weak low approaches the Baja California coast. For our area,
expect only minor day-to-day changes with temperature and sky
cover for tomorrow. Expect another potential foggy start to the
day for some interior East Bay and North Bay locations.&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Weak upper-level low approaches the southern California Coast on
Friday. This will mark the beginning of a gradually cooling trend
for the Bay Area and Central Coast as geopotential heights scale
back. Brief ridging will return to northern California on Saturday
before the pattern change unfolds for the second half of the
weekend. Longwave trough in the eastern Pacific will progress
towards the West Coast during the day on Sunday and into Monday.
This will result in increased precipitation chances for the region
beginning mid-day Sunday for the North Bay and late
afternoon/evening south of the Golden Gate. Right now, total
precipitation amounts appear to be light. In fact, the latest
forecast package actually decreases totals for the entire region.
Some breezy winds are expected to accompany this system, but still
remaining low impact overall.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Weak upper-level low approaches the southern California Coast on
Friday. This will mark the beginning of a gradually cooling trend
for the Bay Area and Central Coast as geopotential heights scale
back. Brief ridging will return to northern California on Saturday
before the pattern change unfolds for the second half of the
weekend. Longwave trough in the eastern Pacific will progress
towards the West Coast during the day on Sunday and into Monday.
This will result in increased precipitation chances for the region
beginning mid-day Sunday for the North Bay and late
afternoon/evening south of the Golden Gate. Right now, total
precipitation amounts appear to be light. In fact, the latest
forecast package actually decreases totals for the entire region.
Some breezy winds are expected to accompany this system, but still
remaining low impact overall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
VFR conditions prevail across the region through the daytime hours.
Overnight, Tule Fog will redevelop into the far interior East Bay,
with some chances for expansion to APC early Thursday morning.
Radiational fog and mist could also develop at STS in the early
morning hours, although timing is uncertain. Past experience has
shown that this type of fog can be hard to handle and could show up
as a thin layer of fog at the surface. High resolution models are
also trying to develop some stratus near SJC, but confidence is very
low and the TAF remains clear. Winds will be generally offshore
across the region, with gusty conditions possible in the interior
and near mountain ridges, while a light to gentle onshore push
develops across the coastal regions this afternoon and again on
Thursday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be light
to gentle, with an onshore push developing on Thursday afternoon,
otherwise remaining generally offshore.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Light onshore
flow will develop through the afternoon, with drainage winds
developing overnight, becoming gusty at SNS. Onshore flow resumes
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
Light easterly winds today will turn southerly by Thursday as high
pressure shifts eastward. Seas will remain small tonight into
Thursday then rapidly build Thursday night through Saturday. Winds
will increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front dropping
down from the Pacific Northwest.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 12 AM PST Thursday to
9 PM PST Saturday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell will
bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents
with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet.
Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back
on the ocean!
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1124 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026
The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for February 4th.
Location Feb 4th Record High
Santa Rosa 77 in 2018
San Rafael 73 in 2018
Kentfield 75 in 2018, 2001
Napa 72 in 2001, 1984, 1930
Richmond 76 in 2018
Livermore 73 in 1917, 1906
San Francisco 74 in 2018
SFO Airport 75 in 2018
Redwood City 77 in 1984
Half Moon Bay 78 in 2018
Oakland Museum 70 in 2001, 1984
San Jose 76 in 2018, 1963
Salinas Airport 80 in 2018
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight PST tonight through late
Thursday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rowe
LONG TERM....Rowe
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...RW
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 4 16:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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