FXUS66 KMTR 200554
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
954 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 223 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
- Scattered showers and gusty winds continue through this
evening with a low potential for thunderstorms across the
Central Coast
- Accumulating snow remains possible in the higher terrain of the
Central Coast through tonight
- Cold to very cold conditions are expected across the interior
tonight and again Friday night
- Hazardous beach conditions for Pacific Coast beaches through
Friday morning
- Brief dry out Friday into Saturday before unsettled conditions
return late Saturday and continue into next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 223 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
(This evening through Friday)
Scattered showers continue across the region with a low potential (<
15%) for thunderstorms across the South Bay and Central Coast. We
have received one report of a thunderstorm in San Jose around 1230PM
with small hail reported in south San Jose. Any thunderstorms or
stronger cells that do develop may produce accumulating small hail,
locally gusty winds, and moderate to heavy rain. High resolution
RRFS guidance shows showers becoming more scattered and
predominantly staying over the SF/San Mateo Peninsula, South Bay,
and Central Coast through this evening. Showers look to continue
over the Central Coast tonight, particularly along the Big Sur
Coastline. Additional rainfall amounts are expected to be light with
most areas seeing around 0.15-0.2" through this evening. The
exception is the Santa Lucia Range where an additional 0.5" is
possible. Winds will remain gusty between 30-40 mph through this
afternoon before diminishing this evening into the overnight hours.
Much colder temperatures are on the books for tonight with
widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the
interior while the coast stays slightly warmer in the upper 30s to
low 40s. The coldest portions of the interior Central Coast, East
Bay Hills, and North Bay will drop into the upper 20s tonight. As
such, a mix of Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings
have been issued for the majority of the region tonight. Extreme
Cold Warnings are generally limited to the higher elevations and the
North Bay Valleys while Cold Weather Advisories encompass portions
of the Bay Area and Northern Salinas Valley. This cold will be
impactful for anyone who does not have adequate access to heat, any
pets left outdoors, and any plants sensitive to the cold.
Temperatures will not be cold enough or prolonged enough for pipes
to freeze during this cold snap. A few climate sites will come
within 5 degrees of their daily record low temperatures for Friday.
If we are able to have substantial clearing tonight, there may be
enough radiational cooling to bring some of the climate sites closer
to their record low temperatures. However, cloud cover would be the
limiting factor with guidance mixed on clouds clearing overnight on
the SF/San Mateo Peninsula, South Bay, and Central Coast. Conditions
look more favorable for overnight clearing across the North and East
Bays which may result in temperatures cooling a few degrees more
than in the current forecast. While Friday looks to be dry, not too
much of a warm up can be expected during the day. High temperatures
on Friday will be in the low to mid 50s for much of the region on
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 223 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Colder weather continues into Saturday morning with lows in the low
to mid 30s across the interior and upper 30s to mid 40s along the
coastline. Interior Monterey/San Benito County and the Eastern Santa
Clara Hills will drop into the upper 20s Friday night into Saturday
morning. Additional Cold Weather Advisories (most areas) and a
potential Extreme Cold Warning (portions of interior Monterey/San
Benito Counties) will be needed again Friday night. Saturday will be
slightly warmer during the day with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Overnight temperatures improve Saturday night into Sunday with most
locations (outside of the interior Central Coast and East Bay Hills)
staying in the 40s to low 50s. Sunday into next week - daytime high
temperatures will be in the upper 50s to 60s while overnight lows
are more seasonable in the 40s to low 50s.
Outside of the cooler temperatures, the long term pattern remains
active. To start off, much of the region will be fairly dry Friday
into Saturday. The exception to this is the North Bay which will see
light rain returning Saturday afternoon and continuing through the
rest of the weekend. Wondering what's bringing us our next round of
storms? Well, a look at the 500 mb heights shows a deep upper level
trough located offshore over the Northeastern Pacific Ocean and a
building ridge over the Intermountain West. This will be associated
with a deep surface low located to our north offshore of the Pacific
Northwest. Although the low is to our north, it will bring enough
moisture to support light rain this weekend for the North Bay and
portions of the coastline. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure system offshore and comparatively higher pressure over land
will tighten Saturday into Sunday and result in another round of
southerly gusty winds across the region. This is expected to bring
gusts between 30-40 mph along the coastline and across the higher
terrain late Saturday night through early Monday morning.
By Monday into Tuesday, models show this low picking up a more
tropical moisture tap oriented towards the Bay Area and Central
Coast. This looks to bring another round of moderate rain to the
region, however, given that the low has shifted further northwards
the amounts have come down since the previous forecast cycle. The
North Bay looks to receive the most with between 2-4" across the
region, locally higher totals in the coastal mountains. The Santa
Cruz Mountains looks to receive between 2-3" of precipitation and
the coastal Santa Lucia Range receives between 1-2" between Sunday
to late next week. Precipitation amounts for the rest of the region
have come down drastically with on average 0.5"-1.0" expected. No
additional snowfall is expected next week as this will be a warmer
airmass compared to the cooler one that we saw this week. Confidence
is low in thunderstorm development with these systems but we are
continuing to monitor to this system arriving. That being said,
models have trended further northwards over the past few runs and
there is the possibility that this could occur again. There may
continue to be additional fluctuations in rainfall totals for next
week through the weekend as we continue to get a clearer picture of
this system.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 954 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
The last few light showers are eroding and winds are reducing.
Winds continue to reduce in the late night with some sites turning
light and variable. Southerly winds return into the mid to late
morning as high clouds increase. Winds remain light to moderate
through the afternoon with directions becoming largely determined by
local effects. Directions turn more southerly into Friday night.
Vicinity of SFO...The last few showers are exiting with lingering,
scattered, mid-level clouds. Winds turn Northwest overnight and
remain breezy. These winds become light into early Friday, but
increase slightly into the late morning and turn west-southwesterly,
then southwesterly that evening, and southerly late that night.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Showers chances reduce further into the
night as winds reduce and become light to moderate. Winds become
light and variable into early Friday. SNS sees light southeast winds
build into the mid morning and both sites see west-northwest winds
for the afternoon. These winds reduce into Friday evening, becoming
light and variable.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 954 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
Winds ease tonight into Friday but remain hazardous to small
craft. Rough to very rough seas prevail through the week. Rain
chances return Saturday and continue into early next week.
Southerly winds will also increase on Saturday ahead of the
approaching storm system.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 351 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from the coastal North Bay
to coastal Monterey County until 9 AM Friday. Dangerous conditions
with localized beach erosion can be expected. Sneaker waves can
sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into
the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Large breaking waves can
overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and
increase the risk of drowning.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026
The following are the record low temperatures at the long term sites
for Friday, Feb 20th.
Location Record Low
Santa Rosa 26 in 1913
Kentfield 27 in 1913
Napa 27 in 2018
Richmond 35 in 1990
Livermore 27 in 2018
San Francisco 38 in 1897
SFO Airport 36 in 2018
Redwood City 30 in 1933
Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018
Oakland Museum 36 in 2011
San Jose 30 in 1897
Salinas Airport 28 in 1953
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ502-
503-505-508-512-513-528-529.
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ504-506-
510-514>518.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for CAZ517-518.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Feb 20 02:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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