FXUS66 KMTR 112059
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1259 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
- Seasonally warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday
- Rain returns to the region Friday into the early part of next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides continues through Friday
- Hazardous beach conditions prevail with dangerous conditions
this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
(This evening through Thursday night)
The warmest day of the week is still on track for this afternoon
with a slight cool down on Thursday as the mid/upper level trough
deepens off of the West Coast. The deepening of the trough will push
the high pressure, which resulted in several days of above normal
temperatures, eastward across the Desert Southwest. Thus,
temperatures cool some 3-8 deg F on Thursday compared to this
afternoon's maximum temperatures. In the next 24-36 hours, a cut-off
low within the larger broad troughing off of the West Coast will
develop at move toward Southern California and Baja California.
Thus, the Bay Area and north Central Coast will see little if any
impacts from this southward tracking low. Prefrontal rain is
forecast to return to return in the coastal ranges late Thursday
night into Friday morning.
Got beach plans? Check out the BEACHES section of the AFD for safety
tips and more information on the Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf
Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
(Friday through next Tuesday)
The first cold front is forecast to move into the North Bay by mid-
to-late Friday morning and then push southward across the Bay Area
and Central Coast in the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will
increase ahead of the boundary and become out of the southwest just
ahead of the cold front. Overall, wind speeds have trended downward
with the latest set of guidance and as still forecast to be
strongest across the Pacific. There remains generally a 10%-15%
chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay and Bay Area on Friday
associated with the destabilization of the atmosphere. Rain totals
from this system are expected to be around 0.5-1.25" for the
North Bay (highest in the coastal ranges), 0.5-1.00" for the San
Francisco Bay Area, Monterey Bay region, and the Big Sur coast,
and 0.10-0.40" for the inland portions of Monterey and San Benito
Counties as well as the typical rain shadowed valleys.
On Saturday, mostly dry conditions are forecast over
the region aside from some post frontal rain showers into Friday
night into Saturday morning. However, temperatures will be
noticeably cooler with highs only reaching into the 60s across
most low-lying areas and upper 50s in the higher elevations (upper
40s in the peaks). Rainfall from this system is forecast to be
mostly beneficial. However, roadways will be slick and minor
nuisance flooding in the typical poorly drained areas. While the
wind speeds have trended lower, keep up with the latest forecast
information as things have the potential to change.
Another cold front is on tap to impact the region Sunday into Monday
with another one in the middle of the upcoming week. None of these
systems are forecast to stall over any one given region, reducing
the threat of widespread flooding concerns. Be sure to check back
for the latest forecast information as we head into an unsettled
weather pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
VFR conditions and diurnal winds should prevail today. Moderate
confidence IFR (potentially becoming LIFR) conditions return to
Half Moon Bay, Santa Rosa, and Oakland. Low to Moderate confidence
of MVFR returning across the bay area, with low confidence (under
30%) in IFR or worse. Cloud cover is likely to increase after
09-12Z with the potential for reductions in visibility if fog is
able to develop. Fog chances are highest across the North Bay
Valleys but may impact airports along the SF Bay shoreline.
Conditions are expected to worsen through Thursday ahead of a low
pressure system arriving on Friday.
Vicinity of SFO...Fog persists along the west San Francisco Bay
shoreline, but should clear from radiation before 20z. VFR and
diurnal winds to prevail afterward. MVFR conditions come in tonight;
IFR is possible tonight, but light offshore flow may be enough to
keep it away.
SFO Bridge Approach...Some fog/low lying clouds are hanging on
between San Jose and SFO. These should clear out from radiation
before 20z. Afterwards, VFR and diurnal winds for the rest of the
day with the potential for MVFR conditions overnight.
Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-LIFR conditions return overnight as low
cloud cover returns ahead of an incoming low pressure system.
Current thinking is that CIGs will be on the IFR-LIFR border for
MRY/SNS with clearing to occur late tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
winds remain light and onshore during the day before becoming light,
offshore overnight. Drainage winds are likely to develop at SNS
again tomorrow morning with SE winds peaking around 15 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 902 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Conditions will steadily deteriorate Thursday into Friday as a
cold front approaches the coast bringing strong SW winds and
moderate rain. Gale force winds are likely during the day on
Friday with a low potential for short lived storm force gusts as
the front moves through. By Saturday, high seas will move in from
a hurricane force low moving through the NE Pacific. Significant
wave heights will reach between 25 to 30 feet on Saturday. Small
crafts will sustain heavy damage and may not survive in these
conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1252 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
Beach Hazards Statement/High Surf Warning:
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through 6 PM Friday, at
which point it gets replaced with a High Surf Warning through 4 AM
Sunday. A series of hurricane force low pressure systems will
impact the NE Pacific through early next week. These storms will
produce very high NW swell that will impact the coast with very
hazardous conditions. Initially the forerunners will bring strong
rip currents and sneaker waves through Friday, while the breaking
wave amplitude builds to 15- 20 feet. As the peak of the swell
arrives on Saturday, breaking waves will reach up to 30 feet.
These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in
the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very
high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the
rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the
ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new
round of very high swell arrives Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10
PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM
Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast
and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition,
long- period swell will create hazardous conditions along the
Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and
rip currents.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday afternoon for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for
Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Nov 11 14:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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