FXUS66 KMTR 141737
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
937 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
...New AVIATION, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
- Very hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast today with
breaking waves 25 to 35 feet
- Stay away from the beach!
- Scattered showers through the morning
- Periods of rain continue through the next week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Post-frotal rain showers persist over the Pacific and portions of
the Bay Area this morning. Have updated the forecast to include
rain showers over the North Bay and Bay Area through the early
evening as the HRRR and RRFS continue to indicate them continuing.
Otherwise, no major changes to the ongoing forecast at this time.
RGass
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(Today and tonight)
The first of a series of frontal systems passed us by yesterday,
with post-frontal showers persisting across the Bay Area and Central
Coast through the morning. Skies will start out partly to mostly
cloudy in the morning, with increasing cloudiness through the
afternoon and evening hours as a second system arrives for Sunday
and Monday. Morning lows will fall in the lower to middle 40s for
the inland valleys, down into the middle to upper 30s for the
coolest interior spots, and the upper 40s to lower 50s for the
Bayshore and coastal regions. Highs today will remain on the cool
side with the inland valleys coming in within the middle 60s and the
Pacific coast within the lower 60s, while higher elevations areas
range in the middle to upper 50s. Winds will be gentle through the
day, turning southerly as the second system approaches, with some
gusty winds possible in the North Bay mountains tonight.
Very hazardous conditions are developing along the Pacific coast
with High Surf Warnings in effect through early Sunday morning due
to surf heights of 25 to 35 feet accompanied by a high risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents. Locally higher waves of 40 to 50
feet are possible at favored locations including Mavericks Beach. In
addition, coastal flooding concerns stemming from wave runup effects
are possible along the coastline. See the BEACHES section for more
details, but to quote: "These waves bring tremendous power
that will overpower anyone in the water and cause coastal erosion.
The risk of drowning is very high this weekend. Do not go in the
water, avoid climbing on the rocks or leaning over seawalls, and
never turn your back on the ocean."
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
(Sunday through Friday)
A second frontal system comes through Sunday into the early part of
Monday. Rain totals will range from a half an inch to one inch
across most of the Bay Area, Santa Cruz County, and the Santa Lucia
range, one to one and a half inches in the Sonoma County coastal
ranges, and a quarter to half an inch across the interior portions
of the East Bay and the Central Coast. Winds will be elevated, but
will not be as strong as Friday's system with gusts of 20 to 30 mph
possible across the SF Bay Area as the front approaches and moves
through. Another lull in the rainfall comes later Monday into
Tuesday, before a third system comes into the region later on
Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too early at
this stage to be confident on how much rain this third system will
bring, but the forecast trend is leaning towards a more potent
system coming into the region as model output suggests that this
storm will be stronger than the Sunday-Monday system and slow down
as it comes into the region. The flooding concerns will increase
through the next few days as soils saturate and creeks and streams
reach bankfull. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the weather pattern
remains active with a lean towards rain totals above seasonal
averages into the last week of November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
The improving trend over the last few hours will continue at all
terminals. There are a few lingering VCSH, but expect impacts to
be minimal. Expect VFR this afternoon. Tonight will see increasing
high clouds ahead of next system. This should limit fog
potential, but STS is a fog magnet and could have a 20-30% chc of
fog. Precip and lower CIGs will enter the N Bay around 16-18Z
Sunday and then spreading to SF Bay by 21Z.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through tomorrow afternoon. MVFR returns
toward end of TAF with more showers/rain.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 908 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
Moderate to fresh southerly breezes will develop over the waters
as a cold front approaches from the north today. Fresh to strong
breezes will develop tonight and early Sunday as the cold front
moves through. Very hazardous marine conditions persist into
early next week with high west- northwest seas up to 30 feet.
Wave heights subside slightly on Sunday, but rebuild to high seas
with the frontal passage. Expect wave enhancement near harbor
entrances and bars due to shoaling. Widespread rain returns
Sunday morning and continues into Monday as moderate northwest
winds settle over the coastal waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 930 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
High Surf Warning:
A High Surf Warning remains effect through 4AM Sunday. Pretty
impressive buoy reports this morning with the highest sig waves
exceeding 25-30 ft. Occasional sets of 40-50 ft waves are likely
at favored breakpoints (i.e. Mavericks). Saturday's peak swell
lingers through late morning before easing Saturday afternoon.
These waves bring tremendous power that will overpower anyone in
the water and cause coastal erosion. The risk of drowning is very
high this weekend. Do not go in the water, avoid climbing on the
rocks or leaning over seawalls, and never turn your back on the
ocean. Wave amplitude will abate somewhat on Sunday before a new
round of very high swell arrives Monday. Will likely need at High
Surf Advisory for Monday.
Coastal Flood Advisory (Saturday):
The swell on Saturday brings a different variety of coastal flooding
as very large breaking waves pile up along the Pacific coast.
Research shows wave run-up increases the mean water level by 10-20%
of the breaking wave height across exposed beaches. This higher
water elevation sets the stage for large waves to crash over sea
walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure, particularly
during high tide.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Nov 14 12:30:04 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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