Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 061939
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1239 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

 - Seasonably cool temperatures through Tuesday before a warming 
   trend arrives for the second half of the week

 - Marine layer stratus develops each evening and overnight 
   before retreating to the coast each morning and afternoon

 - Long period southwest swell causes an increased risk of 
   sneaker waves and strong rip currents Tuesday through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026
(This evening through Tuesday night)

The marine layer was slightly deeper overnight which resulted in 
further inland extent into the valleys this morning. However, 
visible satellite imagery is showing gradual clearing back to the 
coast as of early this afternoon. That said, locations along the 
coast may very well not see the sun at all today, or maybe just 
brief breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures will remain 
seasonably cool this afternoon.

For tonight and into Tuesday morning, expecting coastal stratus 
to return back into the inland valleys. Once the low clouds 
retreat to the coast by Tuesday afternoon, expect slightly warmer 
temperatures compared to previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026
(Wednesday through next Sunday)

A gradual warming trend will begin Wednesday, yet temperatures will 
still be a few degrees below seasonal averages. As high pressure 
strengthens over the Desert Southwest and southern California, 
temperatures will warm to near seasonal averages and potentially 
slightly above. That said, only expecting Minor HeatRisk with 
isolated pockets of Moderate in the warmest interior spots on 
Thursday. All in all, a typical summer time pattern with stratus 
keeping conditions cooler near the coast while the interior warms 
up. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Stratus is dissipating across the interior Bay Area but is expected 
to linger directly along the coastline. Moderate confidence that 
ceilings will be slightly lower tonight given high pressure building 
in to the region. Guidance shows a low to moderate chance of IFR 
CIGs developing at OAK and SFO overnight with slightly higher 
chances directly along the coast and in the North Bay Valleys. For 
APC, maintained a more persistence forecast and kept borderline MVFR-
IFR CIGs overnight. Winds generally stay onshore with breezy 
afternoon winds between 10 to 15 knots expected.

Vicinity of SFO...Satellite shows overcast conditions clearing out 
across the San Francisco Bay/SFO. Maintained a tempo through 19Z for 
MVFR conditions as stratus clears but this may need to be extended 
if stratus does not clear as fast as originally thought. Expect an 
early return of stratus this evening with highest confidence in MVFR 
CIGs and low to moderate confidence that IFR CIGs will develop early 
tomorrow morning. Breezy onshore winds between 10 to 15 knots are 
expected during the afternoon/evening today.

SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus is starting to clear across the 
southern SF Bay but remains patchy in the vicinity of SFO. Stratus 
will continue to clear through the remainder of the morning with VFR 
expected this afternoon before stratus returns this 
evening/overnight. Otherwise, similar to SFO. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite shows clearing stratus within the 
Salinas Valley while it persists along the coastline. Ceilings 
return early this evening, starting out as MVFR before lowering to 
IFR overnight, and will continue into tomorrow morning. Not 
currently seeing any indications that fog will develop but some 
reductions in visibility (particularly within the Salinas Valley) 
may be possible. Breezy northwest winds are expected in the Salinas 
Valley with winds peaking around 15 knots this afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 929 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Moderate seas persist with northerly winds gradually 
strengthening this afternoon into the evening. Strong northwest 
winds will develop Tuesday and are expected to continue into the 
weekend. In addition to strong winds, expect building rough waves
mixed with a low southwest swell.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1238 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast 
beaches from Tuesday morning through Friday afternoon. Long period
southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker 
waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 
feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing 
beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San 
Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can 
sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into 
the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and 
surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. 
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside 
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf 
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Friday 
     afternoon for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 
     0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT 
     Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Navarrete/Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jul 6 16:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service