FXUS66 KMTR 141804
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
- Cool mornings, but very mild afternoons into the next week
- Morning fog across the delta and interior valleys
- Elevated risk for sneaker waves and rip currents at Pacific
coast beaches
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
Temperatures dropped into the low to mid 30s across the North Bay
Valleys and southern Salinas Valley this morning, yet not as
widespread as previous mornings. Also, Buchanan Field (Concord) is
reporting dense fog at this hour. Those conditions should gradually
improve throughout the morning as give way to mostly sunny sky
conditions this afternoon. As a result, temperature are forecast to
warm into the low to mid 60s across the North Bay, lower 60s across
the East Bay, mid to upper 60s across the South Bay, and up to the
lower 70s across the Central Coast. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast
remains on track this morning.
RGass
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
(Today and tonight)
Not much to comment on the night so far, aside from some pockets of
valley fog. Santa Rosa has found the dewpoint and with the slightly
warmer water flowing in the Russian River, patchy dense fog has been
affecting the area. Winds in the lower elevations have been very
light through the night so far, while the mid to upper elevations
have see some breezier conditions.
There wasn't much to get into the weeds over in the overnight
forecast update, but some tweaks were done to the the winds to
better reflect the upper elevation breeziness tonight and over the
next few days.
Otherwise the forecast remains mostly the same: High pressure
continues to allow for warm days, and cool (but steadily warming)
nights. Expect lows this morning ranging from the upper 30s in the
interior valleys to the low 50s along the immediate coast. Highs
look to mostly be in the 60s for the Bay Area, but portions of the
Santa Cruz mtns along with Monterey and San Benito counties are
poised to break into the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 313 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Thursday continues the warming trend both in morning lows and
afternoon highs, and looks to be the warmest of the forecast as the
high pressure continues to build. Highs will be only slightly
higher, so nothing too extreme, but there is a chance that a spot in
the far interior of Monterey Co could break 80 degrees.
The ridge pattern in the jet stream narrows into the end of the work
week with the California coast sitting closer the eastern portion of
the ridge. This change in pattern will allow for slight cooling, but
will still keep conditions warm and skies mostly clear into
Saturday. These clear skies turn cloudier over the late weekend as
thin, high cloud cover looks to return Sunday.
Fog chances to return to the forecast on Sunday as well. A slight
reduction in pressure will allow for the reestablishment of a very
compressed marine layer, and a feed of Tule Fog from the Central
Valley. The current forecast keeps, daily fog potential from
Sunday well into the next work week, with fair model confidence.
Model confidence becomes a mess into the the last few days of next
week. Agreements are fair for the ridge pattern to be broken, but
the route to that result is differing across the models. The GFS
models and ensembles have been calling for a cutoff low to move
through the ridge and break it from the inside, which is certainly
rare to see. Other longer term models show variations of a decaying
ridge pattern as two stronger troughs build to the north. Either
way, this does eventually call for some chances for rain to return
in the last week of January. Though the path to get there and the
magnitude of the rain still is a matter of debate.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
Quiet and VFR conditions prevail across the CWA this
morning and should continue to hold through much of the forecast
period. Models are ambitious again for the overnight hours and
Wednesday morning forecast, but opted to not be as aggressive as
yesterday's TAF and kept visibility reductions to KSTS and KAPC
based on the observations we have had so far today and the continued
offshore flow.
Vicinity of SFO...Offshore winds will prevail today, with VFR
conditions holding through the forecast period. Given offshore flow
looks to hold, opted to avoid adding any reduced visibility since we
remained in VFR overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions and mainly offshore
winds look to prevail through the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1004 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail today. Winds
will veer to become offshore Thursday through Saturday before
northerly winds return Sunday. Moderate seas will prevail through
the week with the exception of the northwestern portion of the
waters where rough seas will briefly build in today into
tomorrow.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 338 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches
this morning and persist through tomorrow. Hazards include
sneaker waves, strong rip currents, and large breaking waves.
Sneaker waves are potentially deadly waves that suddenly surge
much farther up the beach than expected, overtaking the unaware.
They can sweep beach-goers into the ocean, roll logs and heavy
debris along the beach, knocking over or pinning down unsuspecting
beachgoers, and can result in cold water immersion, which can be
deadly with sea surface temperatures in the 54 to 57 degrees
range. Remain out of the water, stay off of waterside
infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn
your back on the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jan 14 10:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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