Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 012353
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
453 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

 - Long period southwest swell will result in an increased risk of
   sneaker waves and rip currents through Tuesday morning  

- Slightly cooler temperatures by the end of the week into the 
  weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)

Upper level ridging today will bring warmer weather to the region, 
but it will be short lived. An upper level trough develops later 
this evening and then dives into southern California tonight. This 
will leave us caught between the ridge in the rough on Tuesday. 
Sensible weather will be breezy onshore winds this afternoon and 
evening, followed by a deepening marine layer. The marine layer is 
expected to be around 800-1000feet tonight, which will bring stratus 
to the coasts and some interior locations. Low temperatures for 
tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s where the marine layer 
occurs, the low the 50s to mid 50s for interior valleys, and in the 
mid 50s to low 60s for elevations within the thermal belt. Tuesday, 
temperatures will falter some due to the pattern shift. Highs will 
be in the upper 70s to upper 80s for interior valleys and areas of 
higher terrain, the upper 50s to low 70s along the Pacific Coast or 
San Francisco Bay. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1232 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

The upper level pattern becomes zonal midweek leaving us with 
onshore flow, stratus and perhaps patchy drizzle and fog at night, 
and warmer interior valley and cooler coastal high temperatures. 
While this occurs an upper level low moves across the Gulf of Alaska 
and then into the PacNW by late Friday into Saturday. As this 
happens, our pattern shifts to a trough. Confidence remains high 
that cooler weather will be on tap. Depending on where it goes will 
determine the outcome of weather. Right now ensembles favor a trough 
over the west, which supports the cooler weather and the potential 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A deeper marine layer is expected tonight with widespread MVFR-IFR 
CIGs. CIGs will be on the IFR-LIFR border along the coast with some 
potential for fog to develop along the Monterey Peninsula. Generally 
expecting CIGs to arrive by 08-10Z with CIGs lasting through late 
Tuesday morning. Moderate confidence on timing of CIG return with 
high resolution guidance supporting this timing. Breezy to gusty 
onshore winds continue through this evening, weaken overnight, and 
restrengthen during the day tomorrow. Stratus looks to return just 
after the end of this TAF period tomorrow evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Gusty onshore winds ease by late this evening with 
gusty winds returning during the day tomorrow. MVFR CIGs are 
expected overnight with some potential for IFR CIGs early tomorrow 
morning. IFR CIGs become more likely after 12Z with chances 
decreasing after 18Z. Expecting CIGs to fully clear by late morning 
with VFR conditions through that evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR CIGs expected overnight with some 
potential for LIFR CIGs to develop. Have bumped up stratus arrival 
to occur by 01Z given more progressive stratus arrival currently 
visible on satellite. The marine layer is slightly deeper tonight 
but the current guidance still leans towards IFR to LIFR CIGs 
tonight. Lower confidence that fog will develop but LAMP guidance 
indicates it is a possibility (especially after 12Z). Generally 
looking at conditions improving by late morning with a brief period 
of VFR conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 453 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate winds are expected through the night and into
Tuesday with easing seas. Strong northerly winds build into late
Tuesday, and gale force gusts return in the mid week and last
through the rest of the forecast. Seas build by the end of the
work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect today through 5 AM
Tuesday morning due to an increased risk for sneaker waves and
strong rip currents caused by a long period southwest swell. On
the buoys, this swell is being masked by stronger northwest swell
waves, but careful analysis of the wave spectrum at the Point
Reyes and Point Sur buoys reveals a southwest swell around 1 to 2
feet high with a period of 20 seconds. These long period swells 
result in increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly 
waves which surge much further up the beach than expected and 
sweep unaware beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents 
that can sweep the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn 
your back to the ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay away  
from the water. Observe the waves for 20 minutes before moving 
closer. Swim near a lifeguard if possible, and if caught in a rip 
current, swim parallel to the coast away from the current, and 
then at an angle to shore.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for SF Bay 
     N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 
     0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night 
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to 
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for 
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Murdock

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Jun 1 20:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service