FXUS66 KMTR 051720
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1020 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
- Cool temperatures and cloudy with light rain ending this
morning
- Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of the week
through the weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
We're seeing pockets of light rain move south through the Bay
Area into the Central Coast on the backside of an upper level
disturbance that provided beneficial rainfall across much of
the North Bay yesterday and last night. Locations that see
rainfall will receive up to a few hundredths at most by early
this afternoon. Cloud cover will continue to linger through sunset
across most of our area. High temperatures will be in the upper
50s to low 60s, with mid/upper 60s farther inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(today and tonight)
Rain totals over the North Bay have so far varied from 0.10" to as
much as 0.50". Steady light to moderate rain will continue to move
southward across the rest of the Bay Area through morning, likely
affecting the morning commute with wet roads. A few areas of light
drizzle and/or light rain may reach the north Central Coast. Isolated
instability did produce a couple thunderstorms Monday evening. One
thunderstorm developed over the coastal waters southwest of Point
Arena and another over far northern Napa County. The 500 mb low
pressure system is beginning to pick up speed and will move eastward
while caught up in the subtropical jet stream. The rain diminishes
later in the morning with drier conditions returning, however it may
take some time for the sun to break through the clouds later today.
Highs today are forecast to reach the 60s.
Cloudy with patchy fog tonight with temperatures lowering to the
50s and 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)
There's good global model agreement that a high pressure system
will move in across the forecast area during this timeframe. Expect
dry weather along with a warming trend from mid to late week and
the weekend. Compressional warming aloft and surface warming will
result in above to well above normal high temperatures by late in
the week and weekend. Far inland locations will reach the 80s and
90s. Moderate HeatRisk likely develops over inland locations by
Sunday. Please stay tuned to the latest updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
A mix of MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings are being observed across the
terminals, expected to continue through the early afternoon hours
before ceilings lift and scatter. Gentle to moderate onshore winds
will develop through the afternoon and evening before becoming light
overnight. Extensive MVFR stratus is expected overnight owing to the
deep marine layer and recent rainfall, especially in the North Bay.
Stratus begins to clear out towards the end of the 24-hour TAF
period, but clearing times are expected right at the end of the TAF
period or shortly thereafter.
Vicinity of SFO... MVFR ceilings continue for several more hours
before the ceilings scatter out in the late afternoon and evening.
Breezy west winds will persist through the afternoon and evening
hours before becoming gentle overnight, as MVFR ceilings return to
the terminal. Skies will clear out early Wednesday afternoon as
breezy onshore winds resume.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with mid- to high-level clouds
persists today as gentle northwest winds develop in the afternoon
and evening. MVFR ceilings develop in the evening and persist
overnight as winds become light, with moderate confidence of some
scattering out within the last hour of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 957 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
The gradient between high pressure over the Eastern Pacific and
lower pressure over the western United States will support a
gentle northwest breeze and moderate seas through Wednesday. This
gradient will gradually tighten from Thursday through Saturday,
causing winds to increase to a strong breeze and building rough
seas for the weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue May 5 14:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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