FXUS66 KMTR 251159
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
459 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
- Slightly above normal temperatures persist into the weekend
- Increasing potential for light rain returning early to mid
next week
- Moderate offshore winds across the North Bay Interior
Mountains Thursday into Friday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(Tonight through Thursday)
Satellite shows some high level clouds moving over the North Bay
with stratus building in across the coastal waters. An upper level
trough will push through southern California today which, in
combination with a weak cold frontal passage this afternoon, will
deepen our marine layer to around 750-1000 ft. There is some
potential for stratus to develop along our coast tonight but high
resolution guidance suggests the stratus bank will be relatively
progressive with cloud cover dissipating almost as quickly as it
develops. Temperatures remain cool overnight with lows in the 40s to
50s.
Slightly cooler high temperatures are expected today as a weak
surface cold front moves through the Bay Area. This will keep
interior temperatures in the 70s and coastal temperatures in the
60s. The interior Central Coast continues to be on the warmer side
with high temperatures in the low 80s. It is expected to be a dry
cold frontal passage with no potential for precipitation across the
region. However, it will bring locally gustier onshore winds across
the marine environment, the coastline, and across the higher
elevations. Winds stay below Wind Advisory criteria but will be
between 20-30 mph along the coast and 25-35 mph across the higher
elevations. The strongest winds largely remain over the coastal
waters where gale force winds are expected. If you are looking to go
out on the ocean this week be aware that winds, particularly across
the outer waters, will make conditions hazardous for small boats.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1111 PM PDT Tue Mar 24 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Heading into Thursday, upper level ridging redevelops across the
West Coast. At the surface high pressure builds in over the Pacific
Northwest and gradually spreads into the Intermountain West. The SFO-
WMC pressure gradient shifts from positive (onshore winds) to
negative (offshore winds) as this occurs Wednesday night into
Thursday. The SFO-WMC gradient is forecast to reach -10 to -11 mb on
Thursday which correlates to moderate offshore winds. Forecast wind
gusts are expected to peak between 30 to 40 mph. Wind gusts will be
strongest strongest over the higher elevations with winds peaking
along the ridgelines of the North Bay Interior Mountains. Offshore
winds bring drier and warmer conditions so expect RH values to drop
across the higher terrain on Thursday. Larger fuels are drying but,
for now, they remain decently moist from rain over the past few
months. Smaller fine fuels (grass) are drying at a faster rate due
to the recent abnormally hot weather. The overall fire risk remains
low at this time but remember to exercise caution given the drying
of fine fuels. High temperatures on Thursday warm by a few degrees
but largely stay in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior and
60s along the coast.
Temperatures Friday into the weekend will look fairly similar to
Thursday but may fluctuate slightly as we get closer in time. Sunday
into Monday a deep upper level trough will reach the West Coast and
start to push inland. Cluster guidance maintains some uncertainty as
to when this trough will arrive. All clusters show the trough just
offshore on Monday and Tuesday with it pushing inland closer to
Wednesday/Thursday. Rain chances increase starting Tuesday with
light rain to return across the Bay Area and Central Coast. It is
too far out to talk rainfall totals but ensembles are generally
supporting between 0.5" to 1.0" of rain next week. Temperatures are
also expected to cool down Monday and Tuesday with highs dropping
into the 60s to 70s on Monday and widespread 50s to 60s on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ with a cool frontal boundary continue
to approach the coastline, satellite imagery shows it had reached
Point Reyes. Surface high pressure is building over the eastern
Pacific which will increase northwesterly winds over the coastal
waters (with some land overlap) today, tonight and Thursday in
response to ACV-SFO gradient strengthening to 8 mb. UKI-STS will
strengthen to 2 mb. High resolution rapid refresh shows stratus
and fog mixing out /VFR/ tonight and Thursday.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 10 knots increasing to 15 to near
30 knots by late morning and afternoon. West wind tonight decreasing
to around 10 knots or less by Thursday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR, though for a few hours later in the
morning high resolution models show stratus near KMRY. Light and
variable winds becoming west to northwest 10 to 20 knots today.
Winds decreasing to 10 knots or less tonight and Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 430 AM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Expect widespread hazardous conditions due to strong to near gale
northerly breezes. Gale force gusts will occur across the inner
waters and outer waters with bays experiencing conditions
hazardous to small craft. Seas will build to become rough to very
rough as a result. Conditions will slowly improve Friday and into
the weekend with moderate northerly breezes and moderate seas.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this
afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Thursday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for
Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Mar 25 06:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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