FXUS66 KMTR 120731
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1231 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026
- Scattered light showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
today will linger into early Monday
- A gradual warming and drying trend returns through the
remainder of extended forecast
- Gusty winds, especially at higher elevations Wednesday and
Thursday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026
(Today and tonight)
The center of the upper level low will continue to slowly move
onshore through the overnight as a secondary trough on the backside
of the low shifts south well offshore today. Scattered weak showers
offshore will drift onshore overnight, followed by scattered light
showers, primarily over the North Bay after sunrise this morning and
over the coastal ranges. Coverage of light showers will begin to
increase once again by late morning into the afternoon as an upper
trough axis shifts east-southeast across our area. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms after sunrise especially from areas where
upslope flow will provide extra lift near the coastal ranges and
eastern half of our forecast area. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler than today, mostly from the mid-50s to mid-60s. Shower
activity should mostly taper off by sunset. Rain totals will be
light through the day, with up to a 0.25" for low lying areas, and
up to 0.75" at higher elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026
(Monday through Saturday)
Monday morning will feature some lingering offshore showers that may
drift into Monterey County with only a few hundredths of rain
expected where it does rain. By Tuesday, low amplitude ridging will
begin a pleasant gradual warming trend. A sharpening trough axis
extending southwest from a developing system from the Pacific
Northwest into the Great Basin will produce a 'back door slider'
pattern for the second of the week. Gusty west winds at higher
elevations on Wednesday will become northerly and the strongest
gusts appear to not exceed 40 MPH attm. Thursday, gusty winds will
become northerly behind the 'back door slider' trough axis, with the
downsloping component of the winds not impacting temperatures behind
the dry frontal boundary pushing south through our area Thursday
afternoon. Another round of shortwave ridging Friday will
temperatures jump around 5 degrees into the low/mid 70s inland and
low to mid 60s along the coast, and more gradual warming through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
The main rain band has left the terminal regions, but with
convective showers expected through Sunday and perhaps into Monday,
overall confidence remains low to moderate, especially in regards to
wind speeds where convective showers may greatly impact local
conditions. Conditions are expected to be generally VFR-MVFR with
gentle to moderate winds from the southeast to the southwest through
the night, with southwest winds picking up through Sunday morning
and afternoon. Scattered showers and chances for thunderstorms
continue through Sunday, with a general decrease in coverage through
the day.
Vicinity of SFO... Low-end VFR to MVFR conditions with scattered
showers through the TAF period. Low confidence in the wind forecast,
where the best estimate has moderate southeast flow through the
overnight hours before the winds turn southwesterly Sunday
afternoon, with gusts to 20 kt. Winds then turn westerly and
diminish on Sunday night.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR-MVFR conditions with scattered showers
through the TAF period with broadly westerly winds overnight, with
some LLWS concerns at SNS early Sunday morning as surface winds
decouple from the flow aloft. Large scale southwest flow resumes
Sunday morning with gusts to 15-20 kt in the afternoon before winds
diminish Sunday night.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1001 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
The line of intense storms has moved onshore this evening, but
scattered showers and locally gusty winds continue through
Sunday. High pressure builds behind the system with fresh
northwest winds developing early next week, as seas abate to
become moderate through mid week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay-
Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Apr 12 02:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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