FXUS66 KMTR 212351
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
351 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
- Another chilly night for the interior Central Coast and East Bay,
low temperatures in the 30s. Elsewhere, temperatures fall into
the 40s.
- Pattern change begins on Sunday, with unsettled weather trying to
sag into the North Bay.
- Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind late Monday
through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
(This evening through Sunday)
Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon is quite spectacular as
you can see the massive low pressure system sitting over the Eastern
Pacific. Closer to home, here in CA, a disturbance is pushing over
northern California. Any sight of rain is well to our north right
now, but high clouds are slowly starting to infiltrate the area. The
most likely area to see any accumulating rain today will be the
northern part of Sonoma County, but it's capped at 20-40% chance of
happening. Tomorrow chances increase to 20-80% for the North Bay,
with the highest percentages being found over, you guessed it,
northwestern Sonoma County with chances decreasing as you move
southeastward. Elsewhere, dry conditions should prevail.
In terms of temperatures tonight, lows improve for much of the Bay
Area tonight thanks to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures will
fall into the 40s for most areas, near 50 along the coast, and the
upper 30s for areas that remain clear. For the Central Coast, Santa
Cruz and the Monterey Bay area are similar. Colder conditions will
be found across the interior portions, where low temperatures manly
span the 30s. Opted to hold off on a Cold Weather Advisory for the
Southern Salinas Valley and adjacent mountain zones given the
coverage and duration of temperatures of colder temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 116 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)
The long term forecast remains interesting as an upper level ridge
will build over the Desert Southwest and Baja California area. This
should keep the low pressure either west or northwest of the region,
which continues to mess with our rain chances this upcoming week.
For now, rainy conditions look to occur from late Monday through
Wednesday, favoring the Bay Area as a surface low pulls in moisture
from the southwest. The highest amounts of rain should occur in the
North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula/Santa Cruz mountains, with
amounts generally decreasing as you move inland or south. Once the
rain tappers off on Wednesday, a warming and drying trend is on tap
for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 351 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
Periodically gusty southerly winds mainly during the daylight hours
under maximum surface heating and vertical mixing winds, otherwise
VFR. Less breezy to windy Sunday.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Southerly winds gusty at times through the
remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening then decreasing
to around 10 knots tonight and Sunday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Variable to northwesterly winds 5 to
10 knots into the evening then southeasterly winds 5 to 10 knots
tonight and Sunday. Winds becoming variable to onshore 5 to 10 knots
mid to late Sunday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
Southerly breezes continue to increase with gale force gusts,
especially across the northern waters. Rough to very rough seas
persist starting tonight into the beginning of next week. Rain
chances increase across northern waters tonight, becoming more
widespread across the northern waters by Saturday night, then
spread farther south by Monday. Winds and seas begin to ease by
the middle of next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Feb 21 18:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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