FXUS66 KMTR 162016
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
116 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026
- Breezy to windy conditions, especially along the immediate
coast, will result in hazardous beach conditions through Monday
- Hazardous marine conditions expected through the weekend
- Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Monday across
the interior with low humidities and strong gusts
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026
(This evening through Sunday)
Low pressure along the British Columbia coastline early this
afternoon will push into the Intermountain West throughout the
evening and into the overnight. This will tighten the pressure
gradient across the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast.
Thus, expecting the strongest winds to be along the coast and in
the higher terrain across the region. Therefore, a Wind Advisory
remains in effect through 5 AM Sunday morning along the coast
excluding the Santa Cruz region for northwesterly winds of 20-30
mph with gusts as strong as 55 mph (especially along the immediate
coast and in the higher terrain).
For Sunday, expecting another disturbance rotate through the
large scale trough and dig into the Great Basin once again. This
will maintain a moderate to strong pressure gradient across the
region with winds becoming offshore (northerly or northeasterly)
in the higher terrain. Forecast temperatures for Sunday will be
similar to or slightly warmer than today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)
A broad trough will remain over the Intermountain West through
the early part of the workweek, yet is forecast to shift farther
to the east. This will weaken the pressure gradient from much of
the Bay Area and Central Coast by Monday night and into Tuesday.
The one caveat, how deep will the marine layer be heading into
early week. Temperatures have the potential to be 10 degrees F
cooler along the coast and into the adjacent coastal valleys where
low clouds (if they develop) will be slow to dissipate.
By midweek, high pressure will begin to build in from the eastern
Pacific leading to an inland warming trend. Meanwhile, as the
marine layer is likely to deepen during this timeframe, cooler
conditions will prevail near the coast and their adjacent valley
locations. By the end of the week, ensembles are hinting at
another trough approaching the West Coast and cooling temperatures
regionwide. However, less confidence in the extended.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
A strong surface high pressure system over the eastern Pacific to
northernmost CA is resulting in a strong northerly 8.2 mb ACV-SFO
pressure gradient including a moderate 3.0 mb SFO-SAC onshore
pressure gradient. Strong and gusty northwest winds continue over
the coastal waters including gusty winds that'll overlap the
immediate coast in response to these surface gradients. Plenty of
turbulent mixing and drying within the boundary layer will result in
VFR. Windswept seas leading to sea spray and sea salt aerosols will
also result in areas of reduced visibility in haze /MVFR/ near the
coastline. Surface winds at the inland terminals have the highest
probability of easing tonight and Sunday morning before resuming
Sunday under peak diurnal mixing.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 25 to 35 knots through 07z tonight
ease to 15 to 20 knots before increasing to 20 to 30 knots Sunday
afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR except for areas of haze /MVFR/ today.
West winds 15 to 25 knots, easing to 10 to 15 knots tonight and
Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1027 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
Strong surface high pressure will remain nearly stationary over
the eastern Pacific through the middle of next week. This will
result in widespread gale force to storm force northwesterly wind
gusts across the coastal waters. Storm warnings lower to gales for
Sunday. Expect rough seas through the weekend with up to 19 ft
waves during the strongest winds, but seas will ease into the work
week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Sat May 16 2026
Strong and gusty north to northwest winds continue to build through
Saturday before becoming north to northeast by Sunday in the higher
terrain. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with
around 45 to 55 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and
across the ridgelines. Daytime humidity retention will fall to 10-
25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited
overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early
part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to
recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the early part of
the week.
RGass
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing
beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong
winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong
wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating,
and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can
overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and
increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the
immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased
sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced
visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on
the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
509-530.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ006-505-509-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
Tuesday for CAZ506.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Storm Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat May 16 14:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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