FXUS66 KMTR 050718
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
- Cool temperatures and cloudy with light rain ending this
morning
- Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of the week
through the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(today and tonight)
Rain totals over the North Bay have so far varied from 0.10" to as
much as 0.50". Steady light to moderate rain will continue to move
southward across the rest of the Bay Area through morning, likely
affecting the morning commute with wet roads. A few areas of light
drizzle and/or light rain may reach the north Central Coast. Isolated
instability did produce a couple thunderstorms Monday evening. One
thunderstorm developed over the coastal waters southwest of Point
Arena and another over far northern Napa County. The 500 mb low
pressure system is beginning to pick up speed and will move eastward
while caught up in the subtropical jet stream. The rain diminishes
later in the morning with drier conditions returning, however it may
take some time for the sun to break through the clouds later today.
Highs today are forecast to reach the 60s.
Cloudy with patchy fog tonight with temperatures lowering to the
50s and 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)
There's good global model agreement that a high pressure system
will move in across the forecast area during this timeframe. Expect
dry weather along with a warming trend from mid to late week and
the weekend. Compressional warming aloft and surface warming will
result in above to well above normal high temperatures by late in
the week and weekend. Far inland locations will reach the 80s and
90s. Moderate HeatRisk likely develops over inland locations by
Sunday. Please stay tuned to the latest updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 921 PM PDT Mon May 4 2026
Precip is finally trending southward toward SF Bay and ending for
the N Bay. Despite some precip CIGs remain rather high with VFR
and occasional MVFR. Will keep this trend through early Tuesday
AM. The farther south the precip moves it will begin to fade more
too. SJC will only have VCSH and MRY/SNS remain dry. Some
clearing expected Tuesday with VFR. Tuesday evening residual
moisture will bring a lot of strato-cu to the region with MVFR
CIGs.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR this evening with light rain and MVFR CIGs
possible by Tuesday AM. VFR expected for Tuesday afternoon with a
few CU. MVFR CIGs return Tuesday evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR and dry. No precip expected later,
but some MVFR CIGs possible then VFR Tuesday afternoon with nearby
CU.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 921 PM PDT Mon May 4 2026
Unsettled weather over the northern waters with passing showers
due to a weak weather system moving through early Tuesday. light
to gentle northerly breezes will persist Tuesday. Light wind and
seas continue through Wednesday as high pressure builds. Northerly
wind and seas increase Thursday into the weekend as more typically
strong springtime onshore surface pressure gradients develop over
the waters.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue May 5 00:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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