FXUS66 KMTR 040831
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1231 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
- Seasonal to slightly below normal temps through midweek;
warming trend and above normal temps late week into weekend
- Coastal flooding Wednesday through Sunday
- Hazardous beach conditions Thursday through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
(Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery reveals a faint surface low around 50 miles off of
Point Reyes, feeding a weak band of showers that are moving through
the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay region. Slight chances of showers
are possible before sunrise, but should continue to dissipate with
the surface front becoming less and less defined. The skies should
clear by the late morning and early afternoon hours.
A look at the wider synoptic pattern reveals an upper level low
moving through the Great Basin, with a slight ridge behind it
helping to keep the large-scale flow from the northwest and keeping
fire weather concerns at bay. Morning lows range from the lower to
middle 40s in the interior valleys into the upper 40s to lower 50s
along the coast and into the SF Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions.
Temperatures should be quite a bit warmer, especially in the North
Bay where temperatures in the inland valleys should jump from the
upper 50s to lower 60s yesterday to the upper 60s today. Upper 60s
to lower 70s are also expected across the inland valleys into the
Central Coast, while Bayshore locations hover in the middle to upper
60s and the coasts remain in the lower 60s. A breezy onshore push
should develop in the afternoon and evening hours with gusts of 20
to 30 mph along the coast and through favored gaps and passes.
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge
will cause coastal flooding concerns across Bayshore areas across
the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San
Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above
normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 8:00 AM today, including 1.2 ft of surge
residual. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along
the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)
A warming trend is expected through the next few days with an upper
level trough building into the West Coast. Temperatures are expected
to peak over the upcoming weekend, with the inland valleys expected
to warm to the middle 70s to the lower 80s and coastal areas
hovering in the 60s.
Into the early part of next week, the temperatures will cool as the
ridge axis moves off to the east and a trough comes close to the
Pacific Northwest. Within the seven-day outlook, any rain chances
will be deflected far to our north in the Pacific Northwest and
British Columbia. Beyond the seven-day outlook, the rain chances
start to migrate southward towards central California, but at that
point, any specific details are heavily uncertain.
Coastal flooding concerns will continue through Monday with the
combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion surge
resulting in minor flooding in Bayshore locations along the San
Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tidal
gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft
MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW)
at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38
AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM
Sunday 11/8, and 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM
Monday 11/9. These predictions include up to 1.2 ft of surge that
will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide
varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and
through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-
period swell Thursday through Saturday will create hazardous
conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 853 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
With the upper low moving through, low clouds and showers /VFR-MVFR/
will linger through the evening. Any clearing tonight will result in
radiative cooling and patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ tonight and Wednesday
morning. Dry Wednesday with VFR.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Lingering showers this evening otherwise
dry later tonight and Wednesday. Wind easterly 5 to 8 knots mid
to late evening then northwest to west 10 to 14 knots Wednesday
morning and afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR with low clouds and lingering
showers this evening otherwise dry later tonight and Wednesday.
Winds light and variable tonight and Wednesday morning, then
onshore 5 to 10 knots Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 825 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
Low pressure will move east of the area tonight and become
replaced by a high pressure system through the week. Winds will
become northerly Wednesday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through
the weekend. Dry conditions expected Wednesday into early next
week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 PM PST Monday
for CAZ006-506-508-530.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Saturday
evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this
evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos
to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Nov 4 02:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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