Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 152107
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
207 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

 - Gradual warming and drying trend into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
(This evening through Sunday night)

A gradual warming and drying trend is forecast over the next few 
days as high pressure over builds westward over the Four Corners 
region. However, a modest marine layer is forecast to persist and 
result in cooler conditions near the coast. Near the coast, 
temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s, bayshore 
and coastal valleys are likely to warm into the low 70s to low 
80s, and mid 80s to low 90s across the far interior. Breezy 
onshore winds are expected each afternoon and evening with gusts 
to between 20-30 mph in the favored gaps/passes and down the 
Salinas Valley. 

Tonight, expecting another round of drizzle and/or mist along the
coast and in the favored upslope coastal regions of the Bay Area.
Temperatures will largely cool into the 50s to low 60s. As 
stratus retreats to the coastline by mid-to-late morning and early
afternoon on Sunday, expecting temperatures to be a few degrees 
warmer than Saturday afternoon. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
(Monday through next Friday)

A more notable warming and drying trend will begin on Tuesday as the 
mid/upper level ridge builds further to the west and spreads 
over the Desert Southwest. However, lingering troughiness off of 
the Pacific Northwest will maintain a shallow marine layer and 
afternoon temperatures slightly below average throughout much of 
next week. Overnight/morning minimum temperatures will be near 
normal. Above the marine layer's influences, dry conditions are 
expected especially Tuesday and beyond. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Low clouds and patchy drizzle /MVFR-IFR/ are slowly mixing out 
and dissipating otherwise it's VFR. Low clouds and patchy drizzle
/MVFR-IFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. 

Vicinity of SFO...Low clouds /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR 21z today.
Low clouds /MVFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday morning. Low clouds
/MVFR/ mixing out to VFR 18z Sunday. West wind 10 knots increasing
to 12 to 20 knots in the afternoon and evening. West wind decreasing
to 5 to 10 knots tonight and Sunday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR in
the afternoon. Low clouds /MVFR-IFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday
morning. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze persists into early next
week with localized fresh gusts possible across the interior
waters. A long period southerly swell of about 16 to 18 seconds
will linger through Sunday. Winds increase to fresh to strong
early next week and remain elevated through the end of the
forecast period. Seas subside this weekend before building to 7 to
9 feet mid week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


  
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Aug 15 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service