Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 250437
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
937 PM PDT Sun May 24 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1107 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026

 - Cool temperatures through Memorial Day Weekend and into the
   work week

 - Breezy, drizzly, and cool Tuesday ahead of warming and drying 
   conditions for the rest of the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1107 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026
(This afternoon through Monday)

A strong marine layer and good onshore flow lead to another morning 
of cloudy conditions for most of the area. The influence of a large 
eddy off the coast of Sonoma Co may complicate clearing times, 
otherwise a similar set up as yesterday.

Highs today will range from the 50s along the coast, 60s for 
areas more inland, the low to 70s for the more interior areas, and
only a few spots in the far interior breaking 80 degrees today.

The deep and expanded marine layer continues to keep humidities high 
for much of the area. This will really come into play overnight, 
keeping most of the overnight lows in the 50s and upper 40s, with 
only the far interior falling into the mid 40s.

The marine layer looks to deepen slightly into the night and will 
call for a stronger inland overnight and into Memorial Day, leading 
to widespread cloud cover and fair chances for drizzle. This will 
also cause slower clearing for the interior, and the potential for 
little to no clearing along the coast. Expect cool coastal 
conditions under cloudy skies with highs in the 50s. Then the areas 
slightly inland will hover around the mid to lower 60s, and the far 
interior will be in the 70s with possibly one or two spots breaking 
80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1107 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

A cold front will pass through the area early Tuesday with a low 
pressure following close behind. This will cause most of the region 
to see the coolest high temperatures of the forecast. The rush of 
even cooler air meeting with the already moist environment of the 
marine layer will cause good chances for drizzle across much of the 
Bay Area and Central Coast. Winds will be breezy and gusty across 
much of the CWA during this pattern change, with the higher 
elevations and favored gaps and passes seeing chances for gusts 
peaking around 45 mph. The national blend of models shows the front 
exiting the North Bay early enough in day and northerly dry winds 
around the low for some slight and isolated warming compared to 
previous days, while the rest of the region remains cool.

From there, the models are in fair agreement over another warming 
and drying trend as a modest offshore flow develops as the low 
travels to the east. Temperatures see a notable rebound for 
Wednesday as skies remain on the clearer side, with temperatures 
steadily warming into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 919 PM PDT Sun May 24 2026

Stratus has begun to build along the coast and move farther inland
over the North Bay. Expect widespread MVFR cigs at all terminals
soon after midnight with a robust marine layer and steady onshore
flow. Monday lifting of MVFR cigs to VFR will coincide with a
notable increase of onshore winds especially for the Bay Area and
South Bay terminals out ahead of a developing cold front. Expect
breezy to gusty winds Monday afternoon and evening. 

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected until midnight with MVFR cigs
through the overnight hours into early afternoon, then VFR with 
increasing onshore winds, gusty at times through Monday evening.
Winds out ahead of the advancing cold front offshore are not
expected to reach AWW thresholds.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs will persist overnight with
higher confidence that KMRY will persist into the early afternoon,
when onshore winds increase becoming breezy through the afternoon
through sunset out ahead of the advancing cold front to the north
with lesser influence this far south.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 919 PM PDT Sun May 24 2026

Light west/southwest breezes continue tonight through Monday, then
begin to strengthen Monday night into gusty northwest winds for
Tuesday into early Wednesday. Expect building rough seas on
Tuesday that persist through the end of the work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena 
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos 
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon May 25 00:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service