FXUS66 KMTR 070023
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
423 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday (11/13)
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
- Unsettled weather returns by late next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)
High pressure building in from the Eastern Pacific continues to
dominate our weather pattern across the Bay Area and north Central
Coast. As such, afternoon temperatures are forecast to be some
2-11 deg F above normal through the remainder of the upcoming
weekend. Morning minimum temperatures will be similarly warm.
Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures will be in the mid-
to-upper 60s with interior valleys reaching the low-to-mid 70s.
The greatest potential for reaching 80 deg F will be across the
interior Central Coast.
Please see the BEACHES section of the AFD below for more on the
Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)
On Sunday, a weakening frontal boundary is forecast to move into
Northern California and brush the North Bay Sunday afternoon and
evening. However, as the boundary continues to weaken, little to no
rainfall is expected. That said, a shallow marine layer is forecast
to return. A slight cool down is expected across the North Bay
Sunday and Monday, however temperatures still will remain above
seasonal averages. Either weak ridging or zonal flow aloft will
maintain dry weather conditions and warm temperatures through at
least Wednesday.
Thursday and beyond, expecting the mid/upper level trough to deepen
along or off of the West Coast. This will result in the potential
for unsettled weather conditions to return to the region. The
Climate Prediction Center's 6 to 10 Day Outlook (12th - 16th) has
a 65% to 80% probability of greater than normal precipitation.
It's still to far out in time given the model uncertainty late
next week and beyond, yet be prepared for rain to return to the
region!
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 421 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
Currently VFR. Moderate to high confidence in VFR and diurnal
winds prevailing through the TAF period. Warmer and drier
conditions persist, leading to low fog/stratus potential. The
exception is a 40% chance for IFR conditions to develop at STS,
likely between 10Z and 16Z with further deterioration to LIFR
possible.
Vicinity of SFO...High confidence of VFR and diurnal winds through
TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at
MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and
diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 421 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
Moderate to fresh breezes across our inner and outer waters will
persist through the weekend into the beginning of next week.
Building seas will become rough late Saturday into Sunday,
becoming very rough by late Sunday into Monday. A pattern change
the second have of next week will bring unsettled weather through
the remainder of the extended forecast.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast
beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second)
westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for
sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16
feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also
increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves
can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people
into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of
jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain
out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back
on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM
Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM
Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday
11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11,
1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2
ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These
predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the
astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90
minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the
San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell
will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches
with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday
for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment/Kummel
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Nov 6 18:30:04 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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