FXUS66 KMTR 112014
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
114 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
- Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to
increase this afternoon and evening
- Rain showers and thunderstorm chances linger into Monday morning
- A warming and drying trend returns through the remainder of
the work week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 109 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
(This evening through Monday)
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast
through early afternoon. Then, as a surface low approaches the
northern California coast, a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) is
forecast to approach the North Bay between 2 PM - 5 PM, 4 PM - 7 PM
across the Bay Area, and 6 PM - 9 PM across the Central Coast. Along
and ahead of the NCFR is when we have the greatest potential for
damaging wind gusts exceeding 40 kt out over the ocean and bays.
This will also be when we have the greatest potential for rotating
cells that may produce waterspouts and/or weak tornadoes. Wind gusts
are also expected to reach up to or exceed 50 mph along the coast
and in the higher terrain during the aforementioned timeframes. Any
stronger convection will be capable of producing stronger wind
gusts. Again, much of our region remains under a Marginal Risk for
sever weather today.
The aforementioned low pressure system is forecast push into
northern California later tonight and become quasi-stationary
through Sunday. Thus, scattered to numerous rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms will prevail through Sunday and into early
Monday morning as a colder/unsettled air mass moves into the region.
This colder air mass will result in a low end potential for the
region's highest peaks to see snowfall through Monday morning.
However, little to no snow accumulations are forecast at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 109 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
(Monday night through next Friday)
The colder air mass will result in chilly temperatures across the
interior both Monday and Tuesday mornings especially over the North
Bay Valleys and interior Central Coast. Temperatures are currently
forecast to be in the low-to-upper 30s in these areas with low 40s
to near 50 degrees F elsewhere across the region. There is the
potential for frost each morning across these interior regions,
especially in the wind sheltered areas. Temperatures rebound to near
seasonal averages by Thursday and Friday as ridging builds in from
the eastern Pacific.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Challenging and dynamic forecast over the next 24 to 36 hrs as a
robust system sweeps through the region. A few scout showers ahead
of more pronounced band of precip will bring a mixed bag of VFR
to MVFR/IFR through this afternoon. It most cases the drop to
MVFR/IFR will be episodic with passing showers. Expect S To SE
flow to increase late this afternoon as well. Timing of "worst"
conditions still remains 01-06Z with a defined line of storms.
IFR conditions with very gusty winds. Thereafter, gradual
improvement, but scattered precip lingering well into Sunday.
Overall conf is low to moderate.
Vicinity of SFO...Wet runways and S to SE are never a good combo
and both will be possible through late this afternoon. VFR to MVFR
will prevail through this time period as well. The stronger band
of storms will bring borderline AWW winds for a brief window
01-05Z with gusts 35kt. Will also need to monitor for lightning as
well. Overnight steady rain transitions to scattered through
Sunday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to VFR conditions through this
afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions this evening with gusty S to SW
winds.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 818 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Shower activity and chances for storms build into the afternoon.
A strong band of rain moves through Saturday evening and into that
night. Expect gustier winds and rough seas, with isolated gale
force gusts ahead and along this band of rain. Shower activity
lingers behind the rain band, and picks up again into Sunday
afternoon with chances for storms returning. Overall rain chances
exit Sunday night. High pressure builds behind the system with
fresh northwest winds developing early next week, as seas abate to
become moderate through mid week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat Apr 11 14:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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