FXUS66 KMTR 051124
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
324 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
- Slightly warmer weather arrives today
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday 11/13
- Hazardous beach conditions through Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Today and tonight)
A weak ridge is building over California. At the surface
a 1028 mb high pressure center is parked over southern Idaho,
with an inverted trough along the California Coast. SFO is
reporting pressure around 1020 mb. The gradient between these two
mesoscale features is supporting some NNE, offshore winds
tonight. Mt. St. Helena is reporting NNE winds with gusts to 30
mph at the moment, which should increase a bit as the diurnal
offshore gradient effect reaches it's max in the pre-dawn hours.
This ridge is bringing a warmer air mass and large scale
sinking air. As an example of this, the 00Z sounding found a
clear subsidence inversion in the middle troposphere. The 850 mb
temperature is around the 25th percentile for this time of year,
while 500 mb temperature is around the 75th percentile.
As this ridge continues to build through the day, the warmer
temperatures will descend closer to the surface. Max temperatures
this afternoon will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday for
most. Despite the warmer than normal air mass, another round of high
clouds should keep inland temperatures from getting above the mid
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)
The ridging pattern is here to stay for 5-7 days and the
weak offshore gradient will stick around through Friday before
flipping back onshore. That means the weather will be pretty boring
for a while. Temperatures will be in the 60s along the coast and 70s
inland into the middle of next week with no chance of rain. There is
growing confidence that a deep trough will bring rain back in the
forecast in the 7-14 day window. The ECMWF ensemble mean shows 2" of
rain at SFO between Wednesday the 11th and Wednesday the 18th.
That's about normal for the entire month.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Mostly VFR conditions have prevailed with high clouds over the SF
Bay Area and Central Coast. Some patchy radiational fog has
developed in the North Bay valleys with dissipation expected a
little after sunrise. A moderate northwest wind will develop in the
afternoon and evening hours, diminishing overnight. High resolution
models are showing some stratus development inland tonight through
Friday morning, but confidence in the extent is low and the TAFs
remain VFR into the end of the 24-hour TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR prevails through at least the evening hours.
Light offshore winds will turn into a moderate northwest breeze in
the afternoon and evening hours. As winds diminish tonight into
Friday morning, low confidence for IFR-MVFR stratus impacts. Greater
confidence at OAK but have elected to keep the TAF VFR at this time.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR prevails through at least the evening
hours. Light drainage winds through the morning will develop into a
gentle onshore wind this afternoon and evening, with a low
confidence of IFR-MVFR stratus impacts this evening into Friday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Quiet weather on tap for the rest of the week as high pressure
builds into the region. Moderate to fresh north winds prevail
through Friday and slacken to gentle to moderate breezes for
Sunday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend.
Chances for rain arrive for the middle of next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly
swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip
currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from
warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns
across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and
Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is
expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday
11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6
ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above
normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal
(7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft
MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW)
at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at
12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49
PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge
that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High
tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific
Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition,
long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific
coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip
currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday
for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 5 04:30:04 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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