FXUS66 KMTR 210518
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
918 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
- Mainly dry on Saturday, with northern Sonoma County having a 15-
40% chance of rain.
- Pattern change begins on Sunday, with unsettled weather trying
to sag into the North Bay .
- Unsettled weather with periods of rain and wind through the long
term forecast period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
Adjusted overnight temperatures slightly lower, especially along the
coast where 24hr temperature differences are ranging from 3 to 9
degrees cooler than at this time last night. With little to no cloud
cover expected from San Francisco south through Big Sur overnight
more efficient radiative cooling is likely. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track with more unsettled weather through a
majority of the extended forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
(This evening through Saturday)
An upper level disturbance passes over the region today which
brought isolated rain showers this morning and left cloudy skies
for the afternoon. Weak upper level high pressure builds over the
intermountain west today, while a deep upper level low from the
Gulf of Alaska digs into the Eastern Pacific. Flow becomes a bit
more zonal on Saturday, which may lead to showers skirting
portions of Sonoma County and a mix of sun and clouds throughout
the rest of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 247 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Upper level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest, nudging the
aforementioned upper level low to the north some. This should keep
much of the region dry on Sunday, with rain chances being confined
to the North Bay. This patter looks to hold until Monday, before the
ridge flattens and the flow becomes more zonal. The upper level will
tap into some tropical moisture, fueling our early-mid week rain
and wind. Thankfully, the system doesn't look to stall in any
regions, which will alleviating a pro-longed flood concern. Given
recent rains, shallow landslides are possible as well as minor
flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Ponding of
water and slick roadways are a guarantee. Mainstem river flooding
is not expected with a low probability (less than 20%) of
occurrence. Saturated soils, mean there is also a chance for
downed trees with any stronger gusts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 913 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF period for all
terminals with a colder, drier airmass moving over our area.
Surface winds will generally be light most of the overnight then
beginning to increase after sunrise Saturday morning. By Saturday
afternoon, southerly wind gusts may be 20-25 knots at times.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR with gusty southerly winds up to 20-25 knots
by Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period with
south/southwest winds gusts of 10-15 knots Saturday after sunrise
with the potential for increasing to 20-25 knots at times by late
Saturday afternoon and evening.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 913 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
Expect fresh to moderate southerly breezes tonight and Saturday
morning with gale force gusts developing by Saturday afternoon,
especially across the northern waters. Rough to very rough seas
will persist from Saturday night into the beginning of next week.
Rain chances increase across northern waters tonight, becoming
more widespread across the northern waters by Saturday night, then
spread farther south by Sunday and Monday. Winds begin to ease by
the middle of next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ504-
506-510-513-515-528.
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ514-
516>518.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for
SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt
Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Feb 20 22:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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