FXUS66 KMTR 161210
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
510 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
- Breezy to windy conditions continuing, especially along the
immediate coast
- Hazardous marine conditions expected through this weekend
- Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Monday across
the interior with low humidities and strong gusts
- Blustery winds for all beaches into the weekend and hazardous
beach conditions for west facing beaches this afternoon through
Monday morning
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Today and tonight)
Water vapor imagery continues to show a trough of low pressure
over the West, with a disturbance digging across Northern
California early this morning. The fog imagery shows the leading
edge of the high clouds associated with this disturbance making it
into North Bay at this time, while other areas are still clear.
These high clouds will be relatively shorted lived though, as
this disturbance quickly dives into the Great Basin by this
afternoon. That said, this disturbance will help reinforce the
already moderate onshore pressures gradients across the region,
with the upper level support at 925 mbs increasing to 55 kts as
well, especially over the coastal waters. Therefore, given that
we are continuing to see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, with an
isolated gust up to 50 mph along the immediate coast and the
coastal waters at this time, believe that it was prudent to issue
a Wind Advisory for the immediate coast from 11 am today through
5 am on Sunday, all except Santa Cruz which is slightly more
sheltered. Given the strong onshore gradient, expect high temperatures
today to be similar to those of yesterday for the coastal areas,
while inland areas will be several degrees cooler than those of
yesterday. Palmer
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 (Sunday through Friday)
Another disturbance will then rotate through the trough and dive
into the Great Basin on Sunday, keeping moderate to strong
pressure gradients going across the region. They will shift
though, turning more northerly or northeasterly. The upper level
support also weakens ever so slightly. Therefore, do not think a
wind advisory will be needed on Sunday, but cannot rule it out
completely, especially for the North and East Bay hills and
mountains.
This broad trough will remain over the Intermountain West through
the first part of the work week, with high pressure trying to
reestablish itself off the West Coast. This will keep Northern and
Central California situated between the two through at least
Tuesday, with dry northerly flow aloft. At this point in time, it
looks like the ridge may start to win out, with a warming trend
possible, especially for our inland areas. Coastal areas though
will likely fall back into our typical May gray pattern with
nighttime and early morning low clouds and fog.
By the end of the work week though, the ensembles are hinting at
another cut off low forming off of the California Coast. This will
likely help reinforce the marine layer and help cool things down
for the inland areas. Palmer
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
Strong winds aloft continue to move through the region with some
areas seeing LLWS concerns. Moderate to breezy winds linger through
the mid morning with winds building across the region through the
day. The strongest gusts will affect sites near the marine
environment. Additionally, winds look to be much stronger over the
ocean through the TAF period. The gusty winds over the ocean will
lead to an increase in sea spay, causing poorer visibilities over the
marine environment and at near coastal sites, such as HAF. Winds
reduce into the night, but remain moderate to breezy along the coast
and lighter for sites inland.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy winds increase
and become strong into the late morning with gusts expected to
exceed 30 kts by the mid afternoon. These stronger winds last into
the night before reducing. Gusts look to cut off and winds turn more
moderate into early Sunday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach... Winds will be more northerly with slightly
weaker gusts.
Monterey Bay Terminals...LLWS affects MRY through the mid morning
due to light southwest winds at the surface and stronger northwest
winds around 800 ft AGL. Winds increase into late morning and
afternoon becoming breezy and gusty across the area. Gust cut off
and winds reduce into the night , but stay strong aloft with MRY
seeing additional LLWS conditions until the late night.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 509 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
Widespread gale force gusts are developing across the marine
environment . Strong northerly winds will increase further
through the weekend, with storm-force warnings going in effect for
the northern outer waters and the inner waters south of point
pinos Saturday afternoon. The rest of the waters look to have near
or infrequent storm force gusts during that time. Storm warnings
degrade into gales for Sunday. Winds begin to ease into that night
and into the early work week. Expect rough seas through the
weekend with up to 19 ft waves during the strongest winds, but
seas will also ease into the work week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 509 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
Gusty offshore winds continue to build through the weekend,
leading to elevated fire concerns. Expect peak gusts above 30 mph
for most areas, with around 40 to 50 mph along the coast, through
gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime
humidities of 10-20% will prevail across the interior regions and
higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong
winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing,
but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow
continues into the work week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing
beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong
winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong
wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating,
and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can
overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and
increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the
immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased
sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced
visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on
the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-
509-530.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
CAZ006-505-509-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
Tuesday for CAZ506.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-
10 nm.
Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM....Palmer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat May 16 08:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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