FXUS66 KMTR 021944
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1244 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1243 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Warming and drying trend begins today with temperatures above
seasonal averages by Friday. A weak cold front is possible later
this upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1243 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Fair weather cumulus clouds are popping off across the region as the
upper level low and surface trough that gave us the last two days of
convective showers continues to move towards the southeast. Today
marks the start of a warming and drying trend that will begin rather
modestly, with high temperatures today reaching the lower to middle
60s in the inland valleys, the middle 50s to near 60 in the coastal
areas, and the 40s to the lower 50s in the higher elevations. Gusty
post-trough winds will develop this afternoon and evening, with
gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph along the coast, through the gaps and
passes, along the ridgelines, and within the northern Salinas
Valley.
Tonight, clear skies and calmer winds will enhance radiational
cooling, with low temperatures expected to be chilly across the
region. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the North Bay valleys
and the interior Central Coast, including the southern Salinas
Valley, from 2 AM to 9 AM Thursday morning. Lows in these areas will
reach the middle to upper 30s, with the coldest spots across the
interior Central Coast reaching the lower 30s. These are borderline
as far as the Frost Advisory criteria, especially in the North Bay,
but the start of the budding season means that agricultural
interests are currently extremely sensitive to low temperatures,
which tipped the scales toward issuing the Frost Advisory.
Elsewhere, lows will range from the upper 30s inland to the middle
to upper 40s along the coast. Three long-term climate sites continue
to see forecasts threatening daily minimum temperature records: San
Rafael, where a forecast of 42 compares to a record of 39 degrees
from 2010; downtown San Francisco, where a forecast of 44 degrees
compares to a record of 41 degrees from 2001; and the Oakland
Museum, where a forecast of 44 degrees compares to a record of 43
degrees from 2003. High temperatures will feel slightly warmer on
Thursday with most regions seeing highs around 3 degrees warmer than
today's highs, give or take a couple of degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025
The warming and drying trend continues through the week as an upper
level ridge builds across the West Coast. This upcoming weekend,
highs should reach the middle 70s to near 80 across the inland
valleys. For context, this is around 5 to 10 degrees above the
seasonal average, and Minor HeatRisk could return to the inland
valleys, meaning that there is a low risk for heat related illnesses
among people extremely sensitive to heat, especially those without
effective cooling and.or adequate hydration.
On Sunday and Monday, a cold front will skirt the Bay Area, bringing
an interruption to the warming trend and a chance for light rain.
Confidence is increasing in the chances for rain in the Bay Area,
especially across the North Bay. However, the rainfall totals are
yet to come into better focus. As before, potential rainfall totals
continue to be modulated by the exact location of the cold front and
how it interacts with a upper level ridge over the western United
States. That said, even the most optimistic forecasts top out around
a half to three quarters of an inch across the Sonoma County
mountains, and every forecast agrees with progressively lower
rainfall totals the farther south you go. Stay tuned to the forecast
as the details evolve.
The warming trend resumes after the cold front moves out, with high
temperatures continuing to climb into the lower to middle 80s by mid-
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025
VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period with a
chance of MVFR stratus developing overnight for KSNS and KMRY.
Gusty afternoon winds along coastal terminals will persist
through the early evening and gradually ease after sunset.
Confidence in the potential for MVFR ceilings developing is
low attm.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR with breezy onshore flow.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Gradual improvement through 14-16Z with
VFR this afternoon. Lower confidence of evening cigs for KMRY.
Current taf shows VFR, but some guidance hints at bringing shallow
cigs back by 04Z.
KMRY and KSNS MVFR ceilings are expected to mix out by 19Z this
afternoon, and remain VFR for the remainder of today and tonight.
Short term guidance suggests the potential for MVFR ceilings to
develop after sunset, but confidence is low attm. Breezy winds
will ease after sunset with continues onshore flow expected
through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 900 AM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025
High pressure will continue to build in offshore with breezy
north/northwest flow over the coastal waters continuing through
early Thursday. Hazardous conditions continue today and tonight,
however wave heights will gradually ease through Thursday
morning.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ506-516>518.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Apr 2 16:30:02 PDT 2025
From the National Weather Service
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