FXUS66 KMTR 221915
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
- Temperatures near to slightly above seasonal averages through
the week
- Dry weather through the 7 day outlook
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
(This evening through Monday)
The region is generally clear with a few high clouds. A more zonal
(east to west) flow pattern in the upper levels is promoting an
onshore wind and a slightly expanded marine layer around 1000 ft
thick, with the end result being that the immediate coast sees
temperatures close to the seasonal average with highs in the lower
to middle 60s while the interior valleys remain rather warm, as
highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s keep those regions around 10 to
15 degrees above the seasonal averages. Some low clouds are possible
at the immediate coast early Monday morning, with morning lows
ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations to
the middle 50s to the lower 60s in the higher elevations.
On Monday, a low-amplitude ridge will develop over the state, with
the overall impacts remaining relatively minor as temperatures
remain within a few degrees of today's highs.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1215 PM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)
The low-amplitude ridge continues to develop through the early part
of next week, before slowly moving off to the east beginning
Wednesday into Friday. This will keep the temperatures relatively
warm for this time of year, but relatively cool when compared to
last week's record-breaking heat. Conditions remain generally stable
through the 7-day outlook with onshore flow during the afternoons
and evenings, highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s in the inland
valleys, and the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast.
Ensemble model cluster analysis continues to show a second broad,
low-amplitude trough developing this weekend, although an embedded
short-wave trough will mediate the impacts. The cluster analysis
also shows the next chances for rain arriving for the last couple
days of March into the first days of April, with increasing
probabilities for scattered light rain across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Satellite imagery this morning shows some high clouds passing over
the region, with some patches of stratus lingering around the
Central Coast. Nearly all TAF sites are reporting VFR at this time,
with the exception being KHAF, where MVFR visibility is occuring.
Checking the surrounding cameras there this seems legitimate and
the question becomes, how long does this stay put. Opted to hold
reduced MVFR cigs through the early afternoon, with perhaps a
period of VFR conditions into the evening before faltering some
overnight. Low to moderate confidence for KHAF. High confidence in
VFR conditions elsewhere.
Vicinity of SFO...Onshore winds will gradually increase this morning
and into the afternoon, peaking around 15-18kt. Gusts up to 21kt
will be possible with winds easing to less than 10kt around 8Z.
Breezy onshore winds are expected to return Monday afternoon.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently, VFR conditions prevail at the
TAF sites around Monterey Bay. A pesky patch of stratus lingers in
the Bay, hugging the coastline down to Point Sur State Historic
Park. KMRY as a result, has brought in a SCT006 group in for the
last observation, though there is uncertainty with how long this
will last. Conditions should remain VFR through the period. There is
a small chance for stratus returning to the terminals around or just
after sunrise. Opted to hint at that possibility rather than
bringing them fully down.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 858 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Fresh to strong northerly winds continue to affect the outer
waters with near gale force gusts lingering. Within 10NM moderate
to fresh northerly winds are expected. Hazardous seas continue,
with winds decreasing into Monday, and seas gradually subsiding as
a result.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Mar 22 14:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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