FXUS66 KMTR 161936
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1236 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday
- Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue
across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast
due to very dry conditions and weak offshore flow through
Saturday
- Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of
breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)
The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains was
allowed to expire at 11 AM this morning as winds speeds continue to
diminish. However, critical to near critical fire weather conditions
prevail across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and north
Central Coast through Saturday due to low relative humidity values.
Today remains on track to be the warmest day of the week as high
pressure dominates the weather pattern aloft with areas of Moderate
HeatRisk, especially near the coast. Interior areas will peak in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Coastal areas will remain mild to very
warm in the 70s to mid 80s as weak onshore winds are forecast by
early afternoon.
Tonight, lower elevations are forecast to cool into the 50s to lower
60s under mostly clear skies. The higher elevations are once again
forecast to be warm and only cool into the 70s to lower 80s
(attributing to the low relative humidities).
For Saturday, an increase in onshore winds and lack of offshore flow
will result in a slight cooling trend in most areas. However, areas
of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast to continue with temperatures
forecast to be some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)
More of a zonal flow returns to the region on Sunday. This will
result in temperatures cooling to near seasonal norms with the
return of a marine layer and increased onshore winds. Upper level
troughing deepens off of the West Coast through early next week,
resulting in below average temperatures returning to the region. A
cut-off low is forecast to develop off of the Bay Area and north
Central Coast by Tuesday and is currently projected to push inland
across southern California by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will
bring a slight chance to chance of rainfall to the region Tuesday
through early Thursday morning. There is also generally a less than
15% chance of thunderstorm on Tuesday when the core of the cut-off
low remains just off of the Central Coast. However, the trajectory
of the cut-off low will largely impact which areas receive the most
rainfall and/or any thunderstorm development. Thus, uncertainty
remains relatively high. So be sure to check back on the forecast as
we will likely gain more clarity in the forecast over the coming
days.
What is most clear, the cool down! As the 500 mb clusters generally
agree on the troughing off of the West Coast through much of next
week. As best said by my colleague, "Bottom line: expect a pattern
change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential
for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential
for thunderstorms."
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Currently VFR. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period due to
overnight/morning offshore flow. Onshore flow will return with
the afternoon sea breeze. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southeasterly flow. High
confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Light easterly flow will
prevail during the overnight and morning hours with onshore flow
returning with the afternoon sea breeze.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with westerly flow at MRY and
VFR with gusty drainage flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR
prevailing through the TAF period. SNS will be slower to return to
onshore flow, but it is expected by this afternoon with the return
of the sea breeze. Drainage flow will return tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Gentle to moderate northerly breezes will prevail Friday,
increasing to become strong across the northern outer waters
Saturday and Sunday. Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes
Monday will diminish and back to become westerly Tuesday. Moderate
seas will prevail through Saturday, building to become rough
across the outer waters Saturday through Tuesday. Light rain is
expected Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Conditions will remain very dry, with RH values around 10-20%
forecast for the rest of the day and poor overnight recoveries
tonight into Saturday. These conditions, combined with warmer
weather, will lead to near critical weather conditions for the
higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast through
Saturday. We will begin to see a reprieve in conditions Saturday
into Sunday, as the upper level pattern shifts to broad troughing.
Temperatures become more seasonal and we should start to winds
become onshore, improving RH conditions as well.
KR
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1021 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
this weekend and likely into next week. Long period (17 seconds)
southerly/southwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for
sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 7 to
12 feet. Remain off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure as waves can sweep across the shoreline without
warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out of the water to
avoid hazardous surf with strong rip currents and never turn your
back on the ocean!
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Sunday evening
for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Oct 16 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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