FXUS66 KMTR 052004
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1204 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
- Slightly warmer and dry weather through early next week
- Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday 11/13
- Hazardous beach conditions through Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(This evening through Friday night)
Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend through the
remainder of the week as high pressure builds in from the Eastern
Pacific. As such, afternoon temperatures will be up to 2-8 deg F
above seasonal averages today in the major population centers. High
clouds will be streaming in from the northwest throughout the
afternoon and evening hours, having little effect on temperatures.
Not seeing much in the way of fog development tonight, as weak to
moderate offshore flow persists across the higher terrain of the Bay
Area and Central Coast. However, cannot rule out a few pockets of
fog in the North Bay valleys early Friday morning and lingering
until the sun rises before quickly mixing out. Once again, high
clouds are forecast to stream in from the northwest on Friday
morning and then clearing out by mid-to-late afternoon. As such,
daytime high temperatures on Friday look to be a few degrees warmer
than today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Weak ridging or zonal flow will persist across the region through
early next week, leading to slightly above normal temperatures. This
will be both overnight minimums and afternoon maximums. A shallow
marine layer, generally less than 1,000 feet, is forecast to return
Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of an approaching frontal
system set to move into northern California. Confidence in wet
weather conditions have stayed the same if not lessened slightly
heading into the middle of next week and beyond. Again, the ECMWF
ensemble mean shows greater than 2" of rain at SFO between Wednesday
the 11th and Wednesday the 18th. While that is about normal for the
interior month, it looks to be spread out in time. However, given
the lack of confidence looking out this far in time, be sure to
check back for the latest forecast information.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Patchy ground fog and stratus has eroded this morning,
leaving us with clear skies and VFR conditions while writing this
discussion. Looking at satellite, high clouds are slowly creeping
into northwestern CA and should slowly sag into the Bay Area late
this morning and into the afternoon hours. Models depict high clouds
clearing by the evening and early overnight hours, leaving us with
mainly clear skies overnight. The forecast challenge for the period
will be if we get any fog or low cloud development tonight. Given
the trends at KAPC and KSTS, opted to continue to hint at some
patchy ground fog and low cloud from roughly 11Z-15Z, though the
onset could be a bit earlier. Expect VFR conditions for all
terminals shortly after sunrise / by mid morning. High clouds look
to return to the forecast. Moderate to high confidence in the
forecast.
Vicinity of SFO...Light offshore winds should prevail through the
morning and into the early afternoon hours. The seabreeze is
expected to return this afternoon, likely between 22Z and 0Z, where
winds will generally be around 10 to 15kt. Winds ease into the
evening hours, becoming light and potentially variable after 6Z-8Z
time frame. Weak offshore flow develops mid morning, with onshore
flow returning tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions prevail, and we'll
see a mix of clear skies and high clouds through the period.
Moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the TAF period, with low confidence of impactful stratus
developing this evening into Friday morning. Light winds out of the
northwest will shift to light south-southeast winds in the afternoon
and evening hours before transitioning back to northwest Friday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 942 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Moderate to fresh north winds prevail through Friday and slacken
to gentle to moderate breezes for Sunday and Monday. Moderate to
rough seas prevail through the weekend, though the very rough seas
across the northern outer waters north of Pigeon Point late Sunday
into Monday morning. Dry weather is forecast through early next
week, with rain chances arriving by mid to late week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
Beach Hazards Statement:
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly
swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip
currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed
beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring
higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline
without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties,
and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and
never turn your back on the ocean!
Coastal Flood Advisory:
A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion
from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding
concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San
Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high
tide is expected 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM
Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday
11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8,
1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft
above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above
normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above
normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions
include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical
tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes
earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San
Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will
create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with
an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents.
These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much
lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2
weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8' higher than this
round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher
if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would
bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance
probability (2.85' above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event.
Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving.
Sarment/Flynn
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508-
530.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday
for CAZ505-509-529.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Nov 5 12:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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