FXUS66 KMTR 111111
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
311 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
- High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight
conditions
- Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches today
and tomorrow and again throughout the week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
(Today and Monday)
High pressure in the Intermountain West and a coastal trough off the
California Coast will be responsible for our weather for the next
week. Calm, clear, and cool conditions will allow for efficient
radiational cooling - this is why we have been cold the past three
mornings. Everything seems to be on track with temperatures
generally within two degrees of the forecast. As such, cold weather
products are in effect through 9AM this morning. Patchy radiational
fog will be another hazard through the morning with STS just
developing it as I was typing this. Today and tomorrow will be very
similar with afternoon temperatures rising to 5 degrees above normal
and overnight temperatures falling to 5 degrees below normal.
Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches today
with an increased risk for strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and
large shore break. If you go to the beach: remain out of the water,
stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and
rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean! Bonus: high clouds
streaming in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to make
for mesmerizing sunrises and sunsets.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that an anomalously high
amplitude upper-level longwave ridge and its axis will dominate our
long term forecast. This will result in a warming trend of 10
degrees, with minimum temperatures slower to respond than maximum
temperatures. No records are forecast to be in jeopardy.
Unfortunately, periods of hazardous beach conditions with an
increased risk for strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and large
breaking waves are expected through the week, coinciding with great
beach weather. If you go to the beach: remain out of the water, stay
off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks,
and never turn your back on the ocean! Rain is still going to have
to wait for beyond the long term forecast. The 20th continues to be
the earliest possible return with the ECMWF and GFS showing some
form of troughing returning, but agreement is terrible not only
between the deterministic solutions but also across their ensemble
members.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 311 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
Fog is being reported at STS with LIFR conditions expected to
continue through the late morning hours. with moderate confidence
that reduced visibilities return late tonight. High cloud cover is
blocking the view of the fog bank on satellite imagery, but nearby
observations suggest that the impacts are generally limited to the
STS vicinity. The rest of the region is expected to remain VFR
through the TAF period. Winds will be generally light with offshore
flow across the interior valleys and a gentle onshore wind
developing in the afternoon across most of the region.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be around
5 knots at strongest, developing from the northeast this morning
before backing to a northwest flow in the afternoon, then to the
west tonight.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy
drainage winds at SNS continue through the morning hours, otherwise
winds remain light with variable flow during the day and drainage
winds developing overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
Expect mostly light winds and swell today. A longer period and
larger northwesterly builds this afternoon producing a rough sea
state through early Tuesday. Seas rebuild in the late work week.
Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 112 PM PST Sat Jan 10 2026
A Beach Hazard Statement will go into effect at 4PM PST Sunday and
continue through Monday evening for all Pacific Coast beaches from
Sonoma to Monterey County. A longer period moderate swell will
bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip
currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result
in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach
conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the
issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside
infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf
and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf
and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through Monday
evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ506-510-
513-514-518.
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ516.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Monday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Monday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Jan 11 08:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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