FXUS66 KMTR 162333
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
433 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1259 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2026
- Early season, long duration heat wave bringing record-breaking
temperatures and Moderate HeatRisk has set in and will last
through at least Friday
- Elevated potential for grass fires through the week due to warm
and dry conditions with periods of moderate offshore winds
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1259 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)
As mentioned in the morning update, the forecast remains on track
this afternoon. The unusual early season, long duration heat wave
has set in across our entire forecast area. Many locations will set
daily record high temperatures as the week progresses, along with
numerous monthly records. A shallow marine layer may provide some
isolated respite from the widespread heat, but no matter how you
slice it, our entire area will feel the impacts of unusually high
temperatures for this time of year through a majority of the
extended forecast. Listed below are things we can all do to stay
safe during a heat wave. We also want to continue to get the word
out that despite the summer type air temperatures, the ocean is
still very much in winter mode still. Cold water shock is a real
risk, and with this heat wave coinciding with most schools Spring
Break week, there will be many visitors to our Pacific coastline
from near and afar. We are also watching the potential for
increasing southern swell that may possibly necessitate a Beach
Hazard Statement for riptides and sneaker waves at some point, its
not quite there yet, but be careful nonetheless and never turn your
back on the ocean. Below are tips to help mitigate your risks during
a heat wave:
Heat is the number 1 weather related killer in the United States.
Unfortunately lives will be lost during this heat wave. Follow these
tips to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your animals.
-Stay inside in an air conditioned environment between 10am and 7pm.
-Suspend unnecessary outdoor activities during the extreme heat, but
if you must be outdoors, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC
and drink cool water.
-Know the signs and symptoms of Heat Exhaustion vs. Heat Stroke!
Heat Stroke can be deadly if not treated immediately by a medical
professional. Call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from Heat
Stroke.
-Wear a , swim near a lifeguard, and check conditions before
entering the water if going to a river or ocean to cool off. Rivers
and the ocean are extremely cold, and Cold Water Shock can turn into
paralysis and drowning if you are not careful.
-Use a cool and damp towel on your body if you do not have AC and
are feeling hot. Or, take a cool shower or bath.
-Do not leave kids or pets in a parked car.
-Ensure pets and livestock have access to shade and water.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1259 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
With not much changing in the extended forecast from the previous
shift, will resend the extended discussion below that does an
excellent job summing up what we continue to see through the
weekend into the beginning of next week:
"After several days of this heat wave building, it will reach the
top of the plateau by Tuesday. Interior temperatures will reach
the low to mid 90s, with 70s and 80s along the coast. Wednesday
through Friday look nearly identical. Hot spots this week include
the southern Salinas Valley and Gabilan Range. There is a strong
possibility that Pinnacles National Park records the earliest 100
degree day of the year this week. The current record for March is
only 93. Along the coast the hot spot looks to be Santa Cruz,
where downslope winds will add adiabatic heating to battle any
marine influence. We expect low 90s there.
Numerous monthly records are expected to be broken this week.
Check out the Climate section below for those benchmarks. Overall
the big story with this heat wave is how early it is. Yes we've
seen much hotter days in the Summer and early Fall, but we are a
full 30 degrees warmer than normal this week. That's very unusual
any time of year.
Finally, when will it end? All ensemble clusters agree that the
ridge will start to weaken this weekend. That doesn't mean
temperatures will drop all the way back to normal, but we should
see a cooling trend of about 5 degrees per day from Saturday
through Monday, effectively ending the heat wave."
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 432 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2026
VFR through the TAF period. Expect moderate winds to become light
across the region overnight. Some drainage winds look to affect SNS,
while most locations keep light winds through the morning. Winds
increase slightly for most areas into Tuesday afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. West winds become
moderate into the late afternoon and early evening before reducing
into the night.. Winds become light and variable into Tuesday
morning. West winds build again in the mid afternoon on Tuesday and
last into late that night before becoming light again.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light to
moderate winds through the evening that become light and variable
into the night. Southeast drainage winds build for SNS into early
Tuesday. Moderate North to northwest winds return Tuesday
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 432 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Breezy to gusty northerly winds linger in the northern outer
waters tonight and into Tuesday morning. Winds across the waters
continue to diminish through the work week. Sea heights remain
moderate due to a combination of wind waves and low southerly
swell.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 410 AM PDT Mon Mar 16 2026
The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for March 16th, 17th, 18th, and 19th.
Location Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19
Santa Rosa 91 in 2004 87 in 1996 84 in 2010 83 in 2004
San Rafael 87 in 1972 84 in 1972 80 in 1996 81 in 1964
Kentfield 86 in 2004 87 in 1914 89 in 1914 83 in 1996
Napa 88 in 2004 92 in 1914 87 in 1914 86 in 1914
Richmond 84 in 1972 83 in 2004 78 in 1996 80 in 1996
Livermore 88 in 1972 87 in 1972 86 in 2004 82 in 2015
San Francisco 85 in 1914 85 in 1914 86 in 1914 80 in 2010
SFO Airport 82 in 2004 82 in 2004 77 in 2004 78 in 2010
Redwood City 84 in 2004 85 in 2004 84 in 2004 81 in 2010
Half Moon Bay 78 in 1972 83 in 2004 75 in 1978 79 in 2010
Oakland Museum 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 81 in 2004 81 in 1984
San Jose 85 in 1914 88 in 1914 87 in 1914 82 in 1988
Salinas Airport 87 in 2004 87 in 2004 84 in 1960 87 in 1997
The following are the record high temperatures at the long term
sites for the entire month of March.
Location
Santa Rosa 91 on March 16, 2004
San Rafael 88 on March 25, 1952
Kentfield 91 on March 28, 1923
Napa 92 on March 17, 1914
Richmond 87 on March 31, 2021
Livermore 90 on March 25 and 26, 2025
San Francisco 87 on March 11, 2005
SFO Airport 85 on March 25, 1952
Redwood City 89 on March 31, 2011
Half Moon Bay 83 on March 31, 2000 and March 17, 2004
Oakland Museum 88 on March 11, 2005
San Jose 89 on March 14, 2015
Salinas Airport 92 on March 14, 2015
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-
512>518-528>530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...RGass
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Mon Mar 16 18:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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