FXUS66 KMTR 161928
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1228 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
- Elevated fire weather conditions through this evening
- Breezy onshore winds through Friday
- Gradual cooling and moistening trend through the upcoming
weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
(This evening through Friday night)
Lingering stratus around the Monterey Bay has eroded as of this
writing, however the cooling trend continues today as a result of
increased onshore winds and the deepening mid/upper level trough
off of the Pacific Northwest coast. The increased winds will
result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and
evening as near critically dry conditions persist across the
interior and higher terrain of the region. Wind gusts are expected
to reach 25-35 mph in the favored gaps and passes. Please see the
Fire Weather section of the AFD for additional details.
The marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 feet
overnight, resulting in better chances for seeing low clouds
develop along the coast and into the coastal adjacent valleys.
That said, there is a low probability of mist and/or drizzle late
tonight and into Friday morning. Low clouds that do develop will
retreat back to the coastline by mid-to-late morning.
By Friday afternoon, the cooling trend will continue with
temperatures dropping to slightly below seasonal averages. Thus,
we are expecting upper 50s to 60s near the coast, upper 60s to
middle 70s just inland, and lower 80s to near 90 deg F (the
warmest interior spots). Friday night, low clouds are more likely
to reach into the coastal adjacent valleys and potentially into
the inland valleys as the marine influences become better
established. This will also increase the potential for mist and/or
drizzle near the coast. However, probabilities are not high
enough to include drizzle in the official forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Temperatures will be similar to Friday through much of the
weekend with slight day-to-day fluctuations depending on the depth
of the marine layer. We continue to monitor tropical and monsoon
moisture that is forecast to spread across the Bay Area and
Central Coast late in the weekend into early next week. Tropical
Storm Elida is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a
hurricane by 5 AM Friday (tomorrow). This system is forecast to
move out into the open Pacific and not directly impact the region.
However, high pressure placed over the Intermountain West this
weekend will advect moisture from Elida and monsoon moisture
northward brining an increased in mid-to-high level clouds on
Sunday and beyond (this the most likely scenario). The lacking
ingredient is still instability! Be sure to keep up to date with
the latest forecast information over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
VFR conditions prevail across all terminals. The patch of stratus
that developed over the Monterey Bay is quickly dissipating at
this hour and is expected to reform this evening as a shallow
marine layer reestablishes itself. High confidence in VFR through
the afternoon with moderate to high confidence of IFR ceilings
returning to coastal (HAF, MRY, and SNS) and near shore (SFO and
OAK) terminals this evening. Diurnal winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions and westerly flow will prevail.
Moderate (60%) confidence on an IFR ceiling returning tonight. The
TAF may be slightly pessimistic with a 09Z arrival. Reasonable
best case scenario is the marine layer is too shallow to make it
through the San Bruno Gap and has to go through the Golden Gate
Gap. This would likely lead to a later arrival time or stratus
remaining confined to the north of the terminal. There's a 25%
chance for wind gusts to reach 35 knots this afternoon and
evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions prevail with moderate west
to northwesterly winds over MRY and SNS. The patch of stratus
that developed over the Monterey Bay this morning is quickly
dissipating at this hour. High confidence on IFR ceilings
returning to the terminals tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1026 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Moderate to strong northwesterly winds will bring widespread
hazardous conditions for small craft today. Localized gale force
gusts are expected along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes
and Point Sur. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through Friday.
Conditions improve Saturday as seas abate and northwesterly
breezes diminish.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026
The very warm to hot temperatures we have had this week has
resulted in fuels rapidly drying. Fire weather concerns will
remain elevated through this evening with relative humidity
dropping into the teens and lower twenties across the interior and
higher elevations (away from the marine influences), gusty
onshore winds, and very dry fuels. This may result in additional
fire starts particularly across the interior and higher
elevations. These conditions are gradually forecast to improve as
the marine layer deepens into Friday and over the weekend.
Unsettled weather is possible late this weekend and into early
next week with returning potential for dry thunderstorms and
gusty, erratic winds. However, the focus remains to the east over
the Sierra Nevada.
RGass
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF
Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...CW
MARINE...CW
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Jul 16 14:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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