FXUS66 KMTR 051158
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
458 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
- Cool temperatures and cloudy with light rain ending this
morning
- Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of the week
through the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(today and tonight)
Rain totals over the North Bay have so far varied from 0.10" to as
much as 0.50". Steady light to moderate rain will continue to move
southward across the rest of the Bay Area through morning, likely
affecting the morning commute with wet roads. A few areas of light
drizzle and/or light rain may reach the north Central Coast. Isolated
instability did produce a couple thunderstorms Monday evening. One
thunderstorm developed over the coastal waters southwest of Point
Arena and another over far northern Napa County. The 500 mb low
pressure system is beginning to pick up speed and will move eastward
while caught up in the subtropical jet stream. The rain diminishes
later in the morning with drier conditions returning, however it may
take some time for the sun to break through the clouds later today.
Highs today are forecast to reach the 60s.
Cloudy with patchy fog tonight with temperatures lowering to the
50s and 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)
There's good global model agreement that a high pressure system
will move in across the forecast area during this timeframe. Expect
dry weather along with a warming trend from mid to late week and
the weekend. Compressional warming aloft and surface warming will
result in above to well above normal high temperatures by late in
the week and weekend. Far inland locations will reach the 80s and
90s. Moderate HeatRisk likely develops over inland locations by
Sunday. Please stay tuned to the latest updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
Light rain is tapering off and has been removed from the 12Z TAFs
through a few light showers are still possible in the early
morning. Widespread VFR ceilings will gradually trend lower over
the next few hours before the coverage breaks up later in the day.
Residual moisture will bring a good chance for MVFR or IFR
ceilings Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR ceilings are slowly lowering and will likely
reach MVFR through the mid morning. The clouds bases should lift
and will likely scatter out this afternoon before returning
overnight. Otherwise moderate onshore winds will persist through
the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The southern terminals avoided the rain
overnight, and the ceilings stayed higher. There is still a good
chance for MVFR impacts this morning before some improvement in
the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 438 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026
The gradient between high pressure over the Eastern Pacific and
lower pressure over the western US will support a gentle NW breeze
and moderate seas through Wednesday. This gradient will gradually
tighten from Thursday through Saturday, causing winds to increase
to a strong breeze and building rough seas this weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue May 5 08:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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