FXUS66 KMTR 092344
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
444 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 927 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026
- Sharp cool-down this weekend and early next week
- Coastal flooding during high tides through mid-week
- Beach Hazards Saturday morning until Monday evening
- Light rain possible north Central Coast early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
(This evening through Saturday night)
As of 1 PM PDT, temperatures are running between 10-25 degrees
cooler than this time yesterday with up to 30 degrees cooler in
isolated locations. Needless to say, the cool down has arrived.
Early morning stratus was slow to retreat to the coast, but with
mostly sunny skies across the interior we are expected this
afternoon to still be warm.
An upper level cut-off low pressure is approximately 400 miles
southwest of the Monterey Bay. This has allowed for a deepening
marine layer that is forecast to deepen further tonight and into
Saturday morning to around 2000 feet. As such, have added coastal
drizzle into the forecast south of the Golden Gate where there is
about a 20-60% probability (based off of the HREF) of seeing greater
than 0.01" of precipitation from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM
Saturday. This is a typical pattern for which we see widespread
coastal drizzle!
By late tonight and into Saturday morning, a mostly dry frontal
passage (minus the drizzle) is forecast to move from north the south
across the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will bring temperatures
down to below seasonal averages Saturday, generally 5 to 15 degrees
cooler. In wake of the frontal passage, winds will increase out of
the northwest with afternoon and evening gusts between 35-45 mph in
the favored gaps, passes, and wind-prone areas. Winds over the ocean
will be even stronger with gale-force gusts likely!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Winds ease a bit on Sunday with an even colder air mass settling
into the region from the north. Temperatures will struggle to warm
into the 60s to lower 70s across much of the region. By Sunday night
into Monday, there is a chance for rain showers over the north Central
Coast as mid/upper level remnant moisture from Tropical Storm
Rachel and an upper level cut-off low move across the region.
Across the Bay Area and North Bay, there is a less than 10-15%
chance of precipitation. This could change depending on the track
of the cut- off low and remnant moisture.
Cooler conditions persist into midweek before a gradual warming
trend takes palace towards the latter half of the week as ridging
builds in from the eastern Pacific.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
I'm sorry about the Blue Angles today. There's a better chance
Saturday afternoon, but Sunday is the best bet. The marine layer
has deepened to 1300' according to the 00Z sounding. This has
allowed ceilings to improve to MVFR across the coastal terminals.
On the other hand, the deeper marine layer will allow the stratus
to push further inland tonight, but MVFR conditions will prevail
with a deeper marine layer and a decent breeze to help keep things
well mixed at the surface. As the clouds clear midday Saturday,
strong onshore winds will develop at the exposed terminals.
Vicinity of SFO...The city of San Francisco has been under a
blanket of stratus all day, keeping the Blue Angles on hold. SFO
on the other hand has been mostly clear. The SW winds are
sheltering the terminal today. However as the winds gradually turn
more westerly and the marine layer continues to deepen, the
chance for ceilings overnight increases. GFSLAMP shows a 50%
chance for MVFR ceilings between 07Z and 12Z, but I'm going to
keep that in a TEMPO group for now until the walls start closing
in. If any ceilings develop, they will very likely clear by 15Z as
strong westerly winds develop. Gusts to 30 kts are possible in
the afternoon and early evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Broadly similar to SFO, but the approach has a
better chance to stay clear through the night.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings are already here and will
persist through the night. There is some indication that a period
of IFR conditions are possible before midnight, but the winds seem
too strong for that to happen so I'm ignoring that sign in the
guidance. The winds won't be as strong as the SF Bay Area
terminals Saturday afternoon, but a moderate onshore breeze will
still develop in the afternoon, particularly at SNS.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 426 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Strong northerly breezes will continue to spread into the
northern waters with frequent gale force gusts expected by late
tonight. These winds will continue to spread southward into
Saturday, leading to widespread hazardous conditions through at
least Sunday morning. Seas will build in response and become rough
to very rough seas through Sunday before slowly subsiding to
moderate late Monday into Tuesday. A long period southerly swell
will collide with long period northwesterly swell on Sunday,
creating a confused sea state.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Stronger onshore winds will lead to elevated fire weather conditions
across the interior and higher terrain Friday. Cooling and
moistening trend kicks off Friday with the help of a deeper marine
layer and an increase in onshore flow. Moderate to excellent
recovery is expected Friday night. Cooler, windier, and more humid
conditions are expected over the weekend with light rain possible
early next week.
Sarment
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 446 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches
Saturday through Monday. Long period southerly swell from distant
Tropical Storm Rachel will build in height through the weekend,
bringing an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
Long period westerly swell from a gale force low in the Central
North Pacific will arrive Sunday, bringing breaking waves up to 16
feet. The large tidal swings will also result in coastal erosion as
water and waves are brought farther up the beach than normal,
especially during high tide. Remain off jetties, piers, rocks, and
other waterside infrastructure as waves can sweep across the
shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea. Remain out
of the water to avoid hazardous surf and strong rip currents and
never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-508-529-
530.
Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay
Bridge.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for
Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for
Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Sunday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri Oct 9 18:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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