FXUS66 KMTR 272353
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
453 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
- Moderate coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific
Coast locations through the week
- Seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures through the
extended forecast
- Potential for rain this weekend and again early to mid next
week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
(This evening through Wednesday night)
A chill is in the air! Weak, persistent troughing continues over the
West Coast keeping a cooler airmass locked in place over us. High
temperatures stay in the 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s
along the coast while overnight lows drop into the 40s. Pockets of
the North Bay, the Gabilan Range, and the Eastern Santa Clara Hills
will see morning lows drop into the upper 30s. Daytime high
temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees below normal with the 850
mb temperature running anywhere from 7C to 11C (between the mean and
25th percentile). Conversely, overnight lows are anywhere from
seasonal to slightly below normal to slightly above normal (higher
elevations) for this time of year. So while it may feel chilly in
the morning, remember it could always be chillier for this time of
year. Diurnally breezy winds continue along the coast and across
mountain gaps/passes during the afternoon and evening with
occasional gusts between 20 to 30 mph. The windiest conditions are
expected late this afternoon/evening with weaker winds expected
along the coast on Wednesday.
Coastal flooding peaked early this afternoon and will continue to
diminish through the remainder of the week. Today's tides came in at
2.01 ft above normal (7.85 ft MLLW) with the peak occuring at 12:24
PM. High tides will peak at 1.9 ft above normal (7.7 ft MLLW) at
12:56 PM on Wednesday. High tides are due to a combination of high
astronomical tides and surge from thermal expansion effects bringing
moderate coastal flooding to the Bay Area and Pacific Coast. The
worst flooding is expected along bayshore Marin County with numerous
reports of flooding coming in over the last few days. If you have
any photos or documentation of coastal flooding from October 2026
please share them with us on social media so we can better document
coastal flooding impacts.&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 215 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
(Thursday through next Monday)
Seasonal to below normal temperatures continue through the long term
forecast with rain potentially returning over the weekend and again
next week. Broadly speaking, high temperatures on Friday will be in
the mid to upper 60s across the interior and 50s to low 60s along
the coast. Temperatures are then expected to cool, becoming below
normal across the entire region, with highs dropping into the 50s to
low 60s Saturday and Sunday. This drop occurs as the first upper
level disturbance arrives late Friday into Saturday and brings
another round of much cooler air with it. It also brings just enough
moisture for light rain to spread across the region Saturday and
Sunday. We aren't expecting wetting rains (> 0.10" of rain) outside
of the Santa Cruz mountains, Santa Clara Hills, and the Santa Lucia
Range. Trick or treaters may experience more drizzly conditions to
some light rain but the worst looks to hold off until after 10 PM on
Saturday. Heading into next week, guidance continues to show another
deep upper level trough pushing inland but the timing of its arrival
remains in question. Recent ensemble guidance shows more pronounced
ridging and warming occurring Monday and Tuesday with the trough now
arriving midweek. This correlates to warmer temperatures early next
week with interior highs getting back into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Rain chances start to increase late Monday into Tuesday with initial
guidance showing light rain between a tenth of an inch to half an
inch falling early next week. Shower activity continues beyond the
end of the current forecast period so the exact amounts we are
expecting will continue to fluctuate. Definitely worth keeping an
eye on the forecast as we head into next week with our multiple
chances for rain.
Coastal flooding concerns continue through Friday with tidal heights
to be on the downswing Thursday and Friday. The current forecast has
high tide peaking 1.7 ft (7.5 ft MLLW) above normal at 1:43 PM on
Thursday, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 02:39 PM Friday
10/30, and 1.0 feet above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 03:44 PM on
Saturday 10/31, including around 1.2 ft of surge residual partially
attributed to impacts from El Nino. The caveat to this is that the
anomaly has been running higher than initially forecast so the
Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended into the weekend for
all regions rather than continuing for just the North Bay.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
VFR is forecast tonight and Wednesday except for patchy valley
fog /IFR-LIFR/ developing tonight and Wednesday morning. Surface
high pressure will build into the Great Basin tonight and Wednesday
morning. Afternoon and evening onshore winds will shift to offshore
winds tonight and Wednesday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind 13 gusting to 22 knots until 04z
this evening, winds decreasing and becoming light northeasterly
Wednesday morning. West wind around 10 knots redevelops Wednesday
afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds 10 knots becoming
light easterly tonight and Wednesday morning, then onshore 10
knots Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Fresh to strong NW breezes strong breezes continue this afternoon
across the waters, with isolated near gale force gusts occuring
over the northern water waters. Seas will continue to build in
response, leading to rough seas across exposed waters. Conditions
will gradually start to improve Thursday as winds decrease to and
seas subside.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for CAZ006-505-506-
508-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon
Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt
Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...KR
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Oct 27 20:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
|