FXUS66 KMTR 141122
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
422 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026
- Moderate HeatRisk across the interior through Wednesday
- Breezy onshore winds Tuesday through Thursday afternoon
- Minor coastal flooding continues through Thursday
- Monsoon moisture clearing out today
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1116 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026
(Tonight through Wednesday)
While the 12Z HRRR showed some interesting thunderstorm potential
early Tuesday morning, the 18Z backed off, and the 00Z continued
that trend. The radar picture is also losing steam and it now
seems unlikely that thunderstorms will develop. By sunrise, the
clouds will be gone and the threat will basically be over.
There's another 5% chance Tuesday afternoon during peak daytime
heating, but the best chance for convection is now behind us.
The big weather story now shifts to heat. According to commercial
aircraft soundings, the 850mb temperature was around 22C at 00Z.
That's somewhere between the 75th and 90th percentile. Even with
the cloud cover, temperatures were around 5-10 degrees warmer
than normal on Monday. The 850 mb temperature will be broadly
similar Tuesday, but we won't have the overcast mid level clouds
to take the sting out of the heat. Surface temperatures will
increase a few degrees, but the HeatRisk will increase more
substantially for a few reasons; the radiant heat from direct
sunlight, the cumulative effect of multiple hot days, and very
warm overnight temperatures. In fact, we may see the warmest
minimum temperature of the year for many locations thanks to the
lingering altostratus acting as a blanket for the first half of
the night. All these factors combine to bring widespread moderate
HeatRisk Tuesday. Max temperatures will be in the 90s inland and
70s along the coast.
On the other hand, the humidity will be a little lower and a decent
onshore breeze will pick up in the afternoon. While low humidity and
a breeze help people deal with the heat, they also contribute to
elevated fire weather conditions. Refer to the fire weather section
for more information.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1116 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
The hot weather will continue through Wednesday before a cooling
trend starts on Thursday. A trough will move in from the Eastern
Pacific, bringing a weak cold front Thursday morning. Inland
temperatures will drop by as much as 10 degrees, bringing us back to
normal for this time of year. The cooling trend will continue, and
Friday and Saturday will actually be about 5-10 degrees cooler
than normal while the marine layer expands back to around 1,000
feet. The low pressure system will generate some gusty winds,
particularly in the afternoon as the mixing depth increases and
higher momentum is transfered to the surface.
At 500 mb the high pressure over the Rockies will remain in place as
the trough approaches the coast. This pattern will keep mid-level
winds out of the south to southwest through the week. That means the
tropical moisture conveyer belt will remain open. While dry air will
dominate the middle of the week, there is an increasing chance that
one of the many robust tropical waves off the coast of Mexico will
develop into a tropical cyclone this week aided by the warm El
Nino waters. If that happens, there is a chance that some of the
associated moisture will be drawn into the SW winds and advect
over the Bay Area, bringing us similar impacts and considerations
that we saw with recent monsoon moisture event. Depending on the
strength of the TC, there could also be impacts from ocean swell
at the beach. The uncertainty is still high, but it's been
trending more likely recently. The ECMWF 50 member ensemble has a
mean PW returning above 1.0" by Sunday- Monday. That's around the
90th percentile for this time of year. I also noticed 7 of the
members have a PW over 1.5", and 2 members are over 2". The
highest we've ever recorded is 1.79", and that was on 8/16/2020,
when the remnants of Tropical Storm Fausto brought a major dry
lightning outbreak to the Bay Area and sparked several wildfires.
I'm certainly not predicting a repeat of August 2020, but it's
worth keeping an eye on this next potential moisture push given
the current warm temperatures and dry fuels.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 411 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of HAF which is
currently oscillating between LIFR and MVFR. High confidence in VFR
through the afternoon with low to moderate confidence on IFR
ceilings returning to the coastal terminals of HAF, MRY, and SNS
tonight. Diurnal winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range
visibilities.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence
in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Low probability (30% chance) of low clouds
below FL045 developing across the San Mateo Bridge Approach tonight.
Reasonable best case scenario is the marine layer is too shallow to
make it through the Golden Gate Gap or it remains on the north side
of the terminal.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and
VFR and calm at SNS. Moderate confidence in IFR ceilings returning
to the terminals tonight. The forecast has trended towards a later
arrival and a lower ceiling with MRY having a higher probability of
occurrence than SNS.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes are expected through most
of the week. Hazardous conditions for small craft will result,
especially across the northern waters and along the Big Sur
Coast. Northwesterly breezes will increase on Thursday to become
fresh to strong, bringing widespread hazardous conditions for
small craft. Moderate seas will prevail, building to become rough
in the outer waters over the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1116 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Warming temperatures will result in fuels rapidly drying this
week with ERC charts expected to exceed the 97th percentile across
the Mid Coast to Mendocino zone and get close to the 97th
percentile across the Central Coast. Fire weather concerns will
remain elevated Tuesday afternoon through Thursday due to near
critically dry conditions, gusty onshore winds, and very dry fuel
conditions. This may result in additional fire starts particularly
across the interior and higher elevations. Unsettled weather is
possible next weekend with returning potential for dry
thunderstorms and gusty, erratic winds.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening
for CAZ503-504-506-510-513>517-528.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
529-530.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ516-517.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT
Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT
Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jul 14 04:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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