FXUS66 KMTR 160500
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
anticipated across low-lying coastal areas.
- Hazardous beach conditions through Tuesday with increased risk
of sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the
week with seasonable June temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(This evening through Tuesday)
Visible satellite imagery shows that the majority of the extensive
marine stratus and fog deck has mostly retreated back to the coast
as of early this afternoon. Any lingering stratus inland should
retreat to the coast over the next hour. The stratus and fog will
build again this evening with similar coverage from this morning
expected tomorrow morning.
SPC RAP analysis shows the eastern part of a ridge encompassing
Western CONUS. This ridge will build over the region maximizing
tomorrow. With the ridge building over our area it will lead to
increasing temperatures. The ridge is only expected to strengthen
slightly (H5 heights going from around 590 dm today to around 592 dm
tomorrow). This slight increase in H5 heights will only result in a
1-4 degree increase in temperatures tomorrow from today. The raw NBM
output continues to overdo the temperature forecast within the
marine layer (~1500 feet thick based on observations from the
profiler at Bodega Bay). Therefor, I have lowered temperatures
slightly over the next couple of days. After the adjustment, high
temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80s and 90s across the
inland areas and in the 60s and 70s across the coastal areas.
HeatRisk will remain largely unchanged with widespread Minor
HeatRisk and localized areas of Moderate HeatRisk (including the
southern side of San Jose, patches within the far interior portions
of the East Bay, and favored high-elevation areas within the Central
Coast, including Pinnacles National Park). Remember to practice
smart heat safety by limiting your time outdoors, taking frequent
breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated.
Tidal flooding will continue across low-lying coastal and Bayshore
areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine
with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring
us the highest tides of the summer season. Last night's high tide
reached a water level of 1.97 feet above normally dry ground, or
7.81 feet MLLW (observed at 11:18 PM on Sunday), which breaks the
record for the highest water level observed during the summer season
(outside the winter storm season of November to March) which was
previously set the night before, on Saturday evening. The next high
tides are expected to be 1.8 ft above normal (7.6 ft MLLW) at 12:02
AM on Tuesday, and 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on
Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on
Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing
to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with
a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the
BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to
never turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Ridging will continue to dominate the region on Wednesday, but will
begin it's weakening trend. Due to the weakening trend temperatures
are forecasted to be a degree or two cooler than on Tuesday. By the
end of the workweek the aforementioned ridge will continue to
weaken and progress east/southeastward with a trough moving into
the Eastern Pacific and influencing our region. The base of the
low pressure system is currently expected to move through our
region during the upcoming weekend. This low pressure system will
result in a cooling trend across the area allowing for
temperatures to drop below the seasonal averages. Afternoon high
temperatures are currently forecasted to be in the mid 70s to low
80s across the inland valleys and in the mid 60s to low 70s across
the Bays. Rain chances with this system remain confined offshore
and in the Sierra Nevada range (east of the forecast area). Global
ensemble members are in good agreement that ridging will return
to the area by the beginning of next week allowing for
temperatures to warm back above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding again and will impact most terminals
through the night, with a low to moderate confidence of stratus
impacts at LVK. The breezy to gusty onshore pattern winds will
continue to diminish and remain light through Tuesday morning. As
the stratus retreats to the immediate coast, winds will pick up
again with a gentle to moderate onshore breeze across the region.
Low to moderate confidence that HAF sees some brief scattering
Tuesday afternoon. Some stratus expansion inland is expected
towards Tuesday evening, although greater confidence is expected
after the end of the 24-hour TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO... VFR with a fresh to strong northwest breeze
through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move in through the
evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on
stratus timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over
the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the
East and South Bay and potentially setting up through the Golden
Gate just to the north of the terminal before filling in over SFO.
May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that
forms will dissipate through Tuesday morning as breezy west-
northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Vicinity of OAK and SJC... IFR stratus at OAK at present and will
move southwards towards SJC, impacting the terminal within the next
couple of hours. Stratus will dissipate Tuesday morning as breezy
northwest winds develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus
will likely return to OAK sometime Tuesday evening, but stay away
from SJC through Wednesday early morning, beyond the end of the
24-hour TAF period.
Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR stratus continues through late Tuesday
morning with breezy onshore winds becoming light overnight. A gentle
to moderate northwest breeze will develop at the terminals Tuesday
afternoon with gusty winds possible at SNS. Stratus will return to
the terminals Tuesday evening. Moderate confidence in timing at SNS
as the last couple of nights have seen fingers of stratus impacting
the terminal around 23-01Z.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Light northwest winds continue through the night with a low
south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters.
Winds will shift back to southerly tomorrow afternoon for the
northern inner waters and the southern waters. Fresh to strong
north winds will develop in the northern outer waters tomorrow and
Wednesday, bringing rough seas to the region. Otherwise, seas
remain slight to moderate into the weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist
through the next few days as energetic storms in the Southern
Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for
south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are
advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches
along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz
counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches has
been extended through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure check beach
conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach
much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by
surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip
currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from
shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach,
and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other
infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean!
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506-
508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-
529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM....Berislavich
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Tue Jun 16 00:30:03 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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