FXUS66 KMTR 060956
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
256 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
- Hazardous conditions at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday
- Below normal temperatures through the weekend, gradual warming
and drying trend kicks off Monday through Thursday
- Light rain showers from remnant tropical moisture possible
Tuesday through Friday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
(Tonight through Monday)
Satellite shows a mix of patchy coastal low clouds and jet stream
cirrus clouds otherwise it's clear. Large scale mid to upper level
low pressure remains over the West Coast with one more smaller scale
500 mb short wave trough ~ 400 miles west-southwest of Monterey
that'll pass by to our east on Sunday. In the wake of this short
wave trough, thermal and height ridging will steadily redevelop and
with the Sep sun angle it'll result in a warming trend beginning
Monday Labor Day.
Reminder: A Beach Hazards Statement continues from the coastal
North Bay to the Big Sur coast through Monday evening.
Also, minor coastal flooding is likely within a small window of
time of about 1 hour nearest high tide Sunday (Monday and Tuesday
as well) for bayshore locations of Marin County. Impacts will
include minor flooding of the lowest lying areas directly along
the shoreline. At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is
expected to be 0.6 ft to 0.7 ft above normal (6.6 ft MLLW) at 7:53
PM 9/6. At this time we are messaging it here (and will include
messaging in social media) vs issuing a coastal flood advisory for
Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1151 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)
As mentioned a warming trend will begin Labor Day and this will
continue Tuesday and peak Wednesday and Thursday. Minor to a few
areas of moderate HeatRisk will return mainly Wednesday and
Thursday. Then late in the week temperatures will trend cooler.
Global models continue to show redevelopment of 500 mb troughing
over the eastern Pacific during the upcoming week. 00z guidance
continues to show retrogression (westward motion) of the upper
level trough which will help steer residual tropical moisture to
our west. Potential for rain this upcoming week has trended even
drier.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Generally VFR conditions with patches of stratus developing at the
coast and along favored ridgelines through the night. Lower
confidence in the model output that puts stratus development at the
Monterey Bay, and to a lesser extent the North Bay valleys, through
the night. Stratus should mix out through Sunday morning with breezy
onshore winds resuming in the afternoon and evening hours.
Vicinity of SFO... Moderate to high confidence in VFR conditions
through the TAF period, with some MVFR clouds possible early Sunday
morning. Gentle northwest winds will continue through the night
before moderate westerly winds with strong gusts resume Sunday
afternoon and evening.
SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR at present. Model output continues to
show the possibility of stratus development across the region but it
hasn't been observed as of yet and the model output is overdoing the
stratus extent offshore. Thus, have elected to leave out mention of
ceilings through the night. Light winds continue through the
overnight period with a gentle to moderate northwest breeze
developing Sunday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in some
stratus developing Sunday night into Monday morning, particularly at
MRY.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Northerly winds gradually strengthen today from moderate to fresh
with strong gusts becoming more widespread. Locally stronger gusts
are expected within the Monterey Bay, coastal jet regions, and
within the Golden Gate channel. Winds decrease everywhere except
the far northern outer waters by late Monday with weaker winds to
prevail through the rest of the week. Long period southerly swell
associated with tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific will
continue to impact the coastal waters into next week.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 538 PM PDT Sat Sep 5 2026
A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Labor Day as the
swell from tropical cyclones Marie and Karina reach the coast.
Waves from these cyclones will travel over 1,000 miles in all
directions, gradually flattening out to low amplitude, but long
period swell. These waves aren't very intimidating if you're on a
boat in the open ocean, but the long period allows them to push
much farther up the beach. Long period swell always increases the
chance for sneaker waves, but that's particularly true this
weekend since there are 2 different sets of southerly swell, and
their energy will periodically combine. In addition to sneaker
waves, expect strong rip currents and breaking waves up to 10 ft.
As this is a holiday weekend and the weather is otherwise pretty
nice, the exposure to the risk is high. Avoid the water if you're
not an expert swimmer. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel
to shore until you stop feeling the pull. Even on the beach, be
prepared for sneaker waves this weekend and never turn your back
on the ocean.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday
for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday
for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Kennedy
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Sep 6 04:30:04 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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