FXUS66 KMTR 011817
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1017 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026
- Minor coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore through the
Sunday
- Hazardous Beach Conditions Monday and Tuesday
- Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures through Thursday
- Potential for light rain Tuesday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026
Satellite imagery this morning shows the cold front south of
Monterey and San Benito counties this morning, working its way
through SLO and towards southern CA. There are a few lingering
showers, mainly over over our waters, though a few reflectivites
can be seen skirting the Big Sur coast and over interior Monterey
County. Expecting drier conditions for the afternoon, with high
temperatures making into the low to mid 60s for most interior
valleys, the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and perhaps
only into the upper 40s to mid 50s in the higher elevations of the
region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1149 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026
(Tonight through Monday)
Popcorn shower activity focused over the interior CEntral Coast
earlier in the nigh has since faded or moved eastward into the
Central.
Focus quickly turns westward as a low pressure is now entering the
northern coastal waters. The low pressure system and associated
frontal boundaries are producing showers and isolated
thunderstorms. KMUX radar even picked up some weak rotation with
the stronger cells, but they're pulsing on any rotation.
Environmental parameters show less instability and shear are
present the closer one gets toward the coastline. As such, expect
the shower activity to hold together into Sunday mid- morning,
but not expecting any thunderstorms over land. By Sunday afternoon
any showers will end with increasing sunshine. Rainfall amounts
will be a trace to 0.25". Winds increase by the low pressure/cold
front with breezy conditions at the coast.
Coastal flooding remains possible along the bayshore locations of
the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays through Sunday at
6 PM PST.
Tonight through Monday - Winds ease overnight with clearing
skies. Given the recent rain, decreasing winds, and clearing skies
patchy fog is possible Monday morning. Warmer and drier
conditions to kick off the work week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1222 AM PDT Sun Nov 1 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Upper level ridge moves eastward as another upper level low/trough
takes aim at the Bay Area Tuesday. As such, the next round of
rain, albeit light, will move Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall
amounts with this system will be greatest over the North Bay with
amounts 0.10-0.30", Bay Area is less than 0.10", and Central
Coast is trace to nothing.
Thereafter, zonal flow to ridging develops by Wednesday and
continues into next weekend. If the forecast holds, temperatures
will return to the 70s by Friday possibly a few low 80s interior
on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026
Satellite imagery shows VFR conditions, the cold front out of our
region, and cumulus clouds left in its wake mainly south of the
North Bay and most prevalent over the terrain. A few isolated
showers remain over the waters, though a few may skirt along the
Big Sur coastline through the early afternoon. Expect onshore
winds for much of the region, with winds becoming light and
southerly to variable overnight. Generally think VFR conditions
should prevail, with some high clouds trying to sneak in early
Monday morning. Should we keep enough breaks in the clouds, or
they don't manifest, we could see some pockets of fog in the North
Bay valleys. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
Vicinity of SFO...Generally VFR conditions should prevail around
SFO, with some cumulus clouds bubbling up along the nearby terrain.
Winds should switch onshore by the afternoon, with perhaps a few
gusts to 20-23kt this afternoon. Winds decrease after sunset,
cumulus clouds should dissipate, with weak onshore flow overnight.
Winds should shift to the south early Monday morning. Moderate to
high confidence in the forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions should prevail today,
as northwest winds lead to lingering cu over the region. Showers
should hold for a few hours over the coastal waters, and may skirt
the Big Sur Coastline. Otherwise dry conditions prevail and onshore
winds return this afternoon. We may see some gusts to 15-20kt around
KMRY and KSNS through the early evening. Winds then weaken, with
south to southeast flow expected by Monday morning. Moderate to high
confidence in the forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 851 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026
Rain showers generally south of Pigeon Point will continue this
morning and then taper out by the early afternoon. Moderate to
fresh winds have generally shifted to the north and northwest
behind the front, though some fresh to strong gusts will linger
through the afternoon and evening hours. Hazardous conditions for
small craft are expected and will ease from north to south.
Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will prevail,
building to become rough in the outer waters Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
506-508-529-530.
Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Tuesday
evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this
evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena
to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to
Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Nov 1 14:30:02 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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