FXUS66 KMTR 220701
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1201 AM PDT Fri May 22 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM PDT Fri May 22 2026
- Diurnally driven onshore winds during the afternoon and early
evening
- Warm and dry weather today leads to elevated fire weather
concerns for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast
- Gradual cooling trend begins today with seasonal temperatures
for the upcoming weekend and cooler temperatures early next
week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri May 22 2026
(Today and tonight)
The stratus deck has completely covered the coast and is flowing
through the Petaluma Gap into the Sonoma County valleys, through the
Golden Gate into the Berkeley area, and across the Monterey Bay
region and up the Salinas Valley. The Bodega Bay profiler reports a
marine layer around 1000-1500 ft thick, which would allow stratus to
fill into the North Bay Valleys, the East Bay west of the Berkeley-
San Leandro Hills, the Santa Clara Valley, and perhaps impacting the
area around Hollister over the course of the night before stratus
retreats to the immediate coast through the post-sunrise hours this
morning.
An upper level ridge over the northern Pacific that extends into the
Pacific Northwest is continuing to flatten under the influence of a
trough centered over Alaska, allowing a gradual cooling trend to
begin today. NBM model output continues to run a little warm, so I
have tamped down today's high temperature forecasts. They're still a
shining example of the impact of the Bay Area and Central Coast's
famous microclimates, with high temperatures ranging from the middle
80s to the lower 90s in the inland valleys of the Bay Area and
Central Coast, to the upper 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific
Coast. In between the two are the North Bay valleys, where highs
range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, the Bayshore regions where
highs range in the 70s, tending warmer the closer you get to the
southern edge of San Francisco Bay, and downtown San Francisco
itself where temperatures top out around the middle 60s. Breezy
onshore winds will develop during the afternoon and evening hours,
with gusts up to 15 to 25 mph through favored gaps and passes.
Continuing hot and dry conditions across the interior regions will
contribute to another day of elevated fire weather concerns. For
those living or visiting those hot and dry regions, keep the
following in mind:
* Properly dispose of cigarettes and matches
* Do not use a lawn mower on weeds or dry grass
* Avoid using equipment that creates sparks
* Make sure campfires are completely put out
* Make sure no vehicle parts drag on the ground, including towing
chains
* Obey burn bans & only burn with a permit
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Fri May 22 2026
(Saturday through Thursday)
The aforementioned cooling trend continues through the early part of
next week, and by Saturday, temperatures should be near the seasonal
average with highs in the middle 70s to the middle 80s inland. Early
next week, a cold front associated with a deep upper low is expected
to make its way through the region, and the ensemble model runs are
starting to agree on a period of cooler temperatures and stronger
onshore flow Monday through Wednesday. The slight chance for light
rain or drizzle continues across favored coastal regions as the
front passes through, as is the concurrence of the models that any
rainfall that develops will be very light with few hundredths of an
inch being a reasonable higher end amount for any region.
Towards the later part of the week, the ensemble model runs begin to
diverge as the evolution of the upper level low and incoming ridging
becomes uncertain. Most runs lean towards a warming trend for that
period, which is reflected in the current forecast, with a
significant minority (around 30-40% of the runs) suggesting that
some form of trough lingers through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 938 PM PDT Thu May 21 2026
Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. Moderate to high
confidence on IFR-LIFR conditions returning to all the terminals
tonight with the exception of the interior terminals of LVK and SJC.
Diurnal winds will prevail.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Stratus is
currently being held off just to the northwest of the terminal.
Moderate confidence on this reaching the terminal, likely around
09Z. Diurnal winds will prevail.
SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds coming in through the Golden Gate
Gap will continue to spread south along the East Bay Shoreline
tonight with the San Mateo Bridge Approach likely to be impacted
through late morning.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence on
conditions deteriorating to LIFR with fog possible. VFR is expected
by late morning with IFR stratus sticking close to the coast
during the day. Another early return of stratus is expected
tomorrow night.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 938 PM PDT Thu May 21 2026
Hazardous conditions for small craft continue tonight for the
northern outer waters due to strong northerly breezes and rough
seas. Moderate northwesterly breezes will back to become
southwesterly tomorrow and prevail through the weekend. Rough
waters are expected across the northern outer waters Friday with
widespread moderate seas prevailing Saturday through Monday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Fri May 22 02:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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