Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 120118
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
518 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 AM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

 - Rain showers with a slight chance for embedded thunderstorms
   today

 - Unsettled weather returns Saturday and persists into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

Ongoing showers, with brief downpours possible at times this 
afternoon, will persist through the remainder of today and tonight. 
The well defined center of a slow moving (nearly stationary today) 
upper level low off the coast of the Bay Area can be seen clearly on 
satellite and radar. Several bands of light to moderate showers will 
continue to move onshore through this evening. Our entire area has 
seen at least some rainfall over the past 24hrs with coastal areas 
and the higher terrain of the coastal ranges seeing between 0.50"-
1.5" and lower lying interior locations seeing around 0.10"-0.50".

A slight chance of (sub-severe) thunderstorms continues through the 
remainder of the afternoon over the Central Coast with surface based 
CAPE values ranging between 200-400 (or a little higher in some 
spots), however with the vertically stacked nature of the upper low 
attm, there is essentially no shear to tap into the instability. 
Thus, rainfall will gradually taper off overnight and be mostly done 
by sunrise Thursday morning over land, with showers continuing 
offshore tracking south with the upper low during the day tomorrow. 
Highs Thursday will increase 3-5 degrees from today, with morning 
clouds clearing for most locations in the afternoon. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 205 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Positively tilted shortwave ridging begins to set in across our area 
Thursday night with coastal fog and drizzle possible Friday and 
Saturday morning. Temperatures will be near or slightly below 
seasonal values Friday and Saturday, mainly the upper 50s to mid-
60s. A deepening offshore trough Saturday night with decreases in 
midlevel heights and thickness values will lead to increasing rain 
chances through the day on Sunday, which will begin a wet pattern 
that will persist through the remainder of the extended forecast.

By early Sunday morning, we'll see the influence of the deepening 
trough begin to impact the coast before gradually progressing inland 
during the day. Wind gusts up to 25-30mph early Sunday morning will 
increase to 35-40mph by Sunday afternoon along with increasing rain 
chances throughout the day, first along the coast then pushing 
farther inland. The exact details of the larger scale pattern lacks 
consensus, however the highly amplified longwave pattern and 
continuous troughing expected to produce numerous waves of 
precipitation over the next one to two weeks is supported by todays 
update from the Climate Prediction Center, highlighting the West 
Coast with above normal chances for precipitation and cooler than 
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Satellite imagery this evening shows the surface low 
just offshore of the North Bay area, with bands of rain moving 
onshore. This will bring periodic reductions in cig and vis, likely 
to the MVFR category, perhaps lower at times while being accompanied 
with gusty winds up to 22kt at times. Outside of the rainbands, VFR 
conditions prevail. CAMs show showers lingering through the 
overnight hours and with conditions beginning to dry out by mid to 
late morning. Though a few rogue showers may linger into the early 
afternoon. Something to watch for Thu evening and overnight hours 
will be the development of fog with light winds and clear skies. 

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate to high confidence for the SFO TAF this 
afternoon. Rain chances should increase over the next hour or so the 
next band moves onshore. Winds should remain breezy, generally 
around 08-15kt, with perhaps some isolated gusts to 20-22kt between 
now and 5Z. Winds should moderate to 10kt or less during the 
overnight hours. CAMs show lingering showers overnight, thus I 
adjusted the TAF to account for that with chances for rain 
decreasing Thursday morning. Dry conditions should hold for Thursday 
afternoon and evening. May need to monitor for fog early Fri 
morning. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions should prevail through the 
period, unless showers skirt by which could then drop cigs and vis 
down to MVFR conditions. Dry conditions are expected by Thursday 
morning, with winds taking an onshore component by the afternoon. 

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 518 PM PST Wed Feb 11 2026

Moderate winds will prevail tonight, with moderate to rough seas
are forecast. While westerly to northwesterly swell will dominate,
south to southwesterly swell will persist mainly for inner and
outer waters south of the Monterey Peninsula. Moderate to rough
seas are forecast this weekend, with a potential for 12 to 15
second period swell. This will equate to hazardous boating and
near-shore conditions.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday evening through late 
     Friday night for CAZ006-505-509-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 11 20:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service