FXUS66 KMTR 302049
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
149 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026
...New MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026
- Temperatures return closer to normal today, then climb
slightly above normal for Sunday into beginning of next week
- Cooler than normal temperatures look to return by end of the
upcoming work week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026
(This evening through Sunday)
Temperatures are likely to warm into the upper 50s to middle 60s
in northwest facing coastal areas while the interior warms into
the low- to-upper 70s. This is as low clouds are beginning to
dissipate regionwide. The warmest interior spots have a greater
than 60% probability of reaching 80 deg F, such as the southern
Salinas Valley and far interior East Bay (Byron and Brentwood to
name a few).
The greatest potential for stratus to return is around the
Monterey Bay region and the San Francisco Peninsula tonight into
Sunday morning. This is as a short-wave ridge of high pressure
begins to approach from the eastern Pacific. This will result in
slightly warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon with upper 50s to
around 70 deg F near the coast and coastal adjacent valleys. The
most notable warming will occur across the interior with middle
70s to middle 80s expected under sunny skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026
(Sunday night through next Friday)
The short-wave ridge will shift eastward slightly and be more
over the Bay Area and Central Coast on Monday. Thus, temperatures
will continue the warming trend, warming some 5 to 10 degrees
above seasonal averages. Still expecting a shallow marine layer to
remain in place with northwesterly winds at the coast, but if low
clouds do not develop in coastal areas Monday morning, expect
coastal areas to be a few degrees warmer. By Tuesday the marine
layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 ft allowing for
stratus to return into inland valleys Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Thus, current forecast temperatures may be a bit too warm
for Tuesday afternoon. We will continue to monitor the latest
trends.
Warming resumes on Wednesday and continues into Thursday with
mostly zonal flow across the region. Slight day-to-day
fluctuations are expected depending on the depth of the marine
layer and associated marine influences across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. By the upcoming weekend, the WPC 500mb Height-based
Cluster Analysis has increasing probabilities that a trough will
approach and move inland across the West Coast. This would bring
cooler conditions to the region, however rain would likely remain
well to the north of the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM PDT Sat May 30 2026
Stratus is gradually retreating this morning, with interior East and
South Bay valleys cleared out. Along the coast, in the North Bay
valleys, and across the Central Coast valleys, IFR to MVFR cigs
generally prevail. Look for these low clouds to continue to mix out
through the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon hours
leaving us VFR conditions. Quiet and mainly clear skies are expected
through the afternoon and into the evening hours. The question for
tonight will be if the stratus returns. Guidance tends to favor
mostly VFR conditions tonight, with the exception being along the
coast and perhaps in the North Bay valleys. Opted to hint at the
potential for lower cigs for the North Bay terminals rather than
fully socking them in. Any low clouds that develop should erode by
mid morning.
Vicinity of SFO...Satellite observations show a bank of stratus
parked over the western portion of the range ring, while skies over
the terminal remain VFR. We're expecting VFR conditions to prevail
through the TAF period, though some guidance hints at low clouds
trying to form just before or around sunrise. Looking at soundings
and hi-res guidance, opted to hint at the low clouds rather than
dropping cigs to MVFR or IFR. Any clouds that do form should mix out
by mid to late morning. Outside of the clouds, look for onshore flow
to increase this afternoon and evening. Sustained wind speeds will
be around 12-15kt with gusts up to 25kt through the early evening.
Winds begin to decrease around or shortly after sunset, falling to
10kt or less between 5-8Z. Medium confidence in the forecast.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The stratus around Monterey Bay is the most
fascinating as satellite observations haven't really sown any
improvement. Models are not handling this well, making the forecast
tricky. Opted to be slightly optimistic with the forecast, having
cigs lift to MVFR conditions followed by a brief stint of VFR
conditions. Unfortunately, there is the chance we could remain
socked in all day though cigs could lift to MVFR heights for KMRY
and KSNS. Regardless if this happens or not, stratus is expected to
return tonight. Low to medium confidence in the forecast from now
through the early evening. Medium to high confidence in the forecast
for tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM PDT Sat May 30 2026
Moderate to fresh northerly breezes are occuring over the
nearshore waters and fresh to strong northerly breezes are being
observed offshore. Occasional gale force gusts will occur in the
far outer waters and the coastal jets to the south of Point Arena
and along the Big Sur Coast. Seas will build in response and
become rough leading to hazardous conditions over the coastal
waters through Sunday and into Monday morning.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sat May 30 14:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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