FXUS66 KMTR 160702
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1202 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026
- Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher
elevations, today through early Friday morning
- Seasonably warm temperatures Friday into the weekend
- Cooler temperatures and beneficial rain Sunday into early next
week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026
(Today and tonight)
A dry cold front has begun moving south through northern Sonoma and
Napa Counties late tonight and will continue to push its way south
through our area throughout the overnight hours. The strongest gusts
are likely to occur in the higher elevations, through the gaps and
passes of the Mayacamas and Vaca mountains in Napa County and
farther south through the East Bay Hills in the afternoon.
Ultimately, can't rule out some isolated gusts up to 50 MPH at the
highest peaks in Napa County but otherwise impacts should be limited
at lower elevations.
There has been a slight shift east in deterministic guidance of
the sharpening upper trough that will produce the offshore flow
through Friday morning. The timing of the strongest 925MB winds is
late in the day today near sunset over the Bay Area and the Santa
Cruz Mountains. Probabilities for gusts greater than 40MPH are
very low, below 1000ft elevation. Furthermore, as the lower
boundary layer begins to decouple around sunset, chances of the
stronger winds aloft mixing to the surface decrease. Overnight
temperatures will be cooler than normal, as winds ease in the
hours before sunrise. Clear skies will result in efficient
radiational cooling with some near freezing temperatures in the
Santa Lucias in southern Monterey County, mostly 40s everywhere
else.
A progressive, high amplitude ridge will move onshore over the
course of the day Friday with noticeably warmer temperatures and
light winds, will be a very pleasant day area wide. Temperatures
will be in the mid-70s inland and low to mid-60s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026
(Friday through Wednesday)
Overnight lows Friday night into Saturday will begin to rebound
closer to normal while daytime highs jump another few degrees inland
for another pleasant day across our area. A pattern change sets in
late Saturday night into Sunday. Most of our area should see at
least some wetting rains between Sunday and Tuesday, however
consensus is poor across deterministic guidance for how the first
and subsequent waves eject east out of the upper trough as it
approaches the coast. The official forecast attm has slight chance
PoPs in the North Bay as soon as Sunday morning, however significant
uncertainty exists attm.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
A dry cold front is moving through the Bay Area tonight. Some MVFR
ceilings are expected before the front moves through and the
lower atmosphere becomes better mixed with drier air behind the
front. In addition to the clearing skies, strong NW winds will
follow the front and persist through Thursday evening.
Vicinity of SFO...There is a 40% chance of MVFR ceilings between
06Z and 10Z before a drying trend starts to clear out the lower
clouds. Otherwise moderate westerly winds will diminish Thursday
morning before gradually increasing through the day.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...The front will take longer to reach the
southern terminals, and it will be weaker when it gets there. That
provides a longer window for MVFR ceilings at both MRY and SNS
through the early morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 929 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026
A weak front will sweep through the coastal waters tonight. The
passing front will bring fresh to near gale breezes to the coastal
waters and bays through Thursday. These winds will build rough
seas of 10-12 feet across the outer coastal waters. Winds will
ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday,
allowing seas to gradually subside.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Mry
Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Mry Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
Reyes 10-60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM early this morning to 3 AM PDT
Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Thu Apr 16 02:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service
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