FXUS66 KMTR 250825
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1225 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
- Lingering showers and possible fog across the Bay Area this
morning
- Warmer and drier conditions for the next few days
- Cooler conditions this upcoming weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
(Today and tonight)
Scattered to widespread showers linger across topographically
favored regions of the Bay Area and into Santa Cruz County, the
remnants of a moisture plume impacting the state. Shower coverage is
expected to diminish through the morning hours with isolated showers
possible across terrain-favored areas of the South Bay and Central
Coast this afternoon. Additional rainfall totals are nothing to
write home about. At best, around a tenth to a quarter of an inch in
the southeast-facing coastal slopes from Marin County down through
western Santa Cruz County, in addition to the Berkeley Hills. In
addition, areas of mist and fog are possible this morning in the
wake of the rainfall, with the focus on the valleys of the North
Bay, South Bay, and interior East Bay. Otherwise, today should be
much drier, if muggier, and kick off a warming trend that will
continue into the next few days, as high temperatures range from
the upper 50s to lower 60s in the Bay Area Pacific coastline, to
the middle 60s into the lower 70s in the interior valleys and
Monterey Bay region, and the lower to middle 70s in the Central
Coast valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1223 AM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Dry and warm conditions continue through the next few days with the
warmest conditions expected on Friday, when highs range from the
middle to upper 60s in the Bay Area Pacific coast to the middle to
upper 70s in the interior valleys.
The approach of a cut off low on Sunday and Monday will interrupt
this warming trend, with the low center expected to pass to the
north near Cape Mendocino and the northern tier of the state. As the
previous forecaster noted, light showers are possible but no model
output indicates anything meaningful in the region. Even the 95th
percentile rainfall totals from the NBM keeps maximum 24-hour rain
totals over the coastal ranges at a little over half an inch from
Sunday at 4 PM to Monday at the same time. Or to put it in other
words, there is only a 5% chance that the coastal ranges will see
rain totals over half an inch within a 24-hour period ending Monday
afternoon. Longer range outlooks continue to lack support for more
impactful storms but ensemble mean output fields do suggest the
possibility for a somewhat active pattern across the West Coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 927 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
Scattered light rain will persist through the overnight across the
North Bay with less coverage farther south into the Bay Area and
East Bay. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs to persist through a majority of
the TAF period with the exception of KSJC and KLVK. Moderate
confidence in LIFR vis from dense fog for the North Bay terminals
overnight and continuing through much of the morning, with some
potential at KSJC and KLVK as well, but lower confidence with
those two sites.
Vicinity of SFO...Expect MVFR cigs to persist through the TAF
period behind the exiting system to the east during the day with
chances 70% or higher through the daytime hours with relatively
light winds.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and expected to remain so
until closer to sunrise, with high confidence for MVFR cigs to
persist for the remainder of the TAF period from onset. Lower
confidence in fog development this far south but patchy dense fog
may limit visibility at times especially in the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 927 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
Light rain is winding down over the outer waters and will persist
across the coastal waters until late tonight before shifting
almost entirely onshore after midnight. Wind and seas will follow
suit into the early morning Wednesday with relatively calm seas
through the remainder of the work week. Wave heights will increase
slightly by the end of the week into the weekend, likely
remaining below advisory levels.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Feb 25 02:30:03 PST 2026
From the National Weather Service
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