Technical NOAA Weather Discussion

FXUS66 KMTR 191201
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
500 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 935 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026

 - Seasonally warm temperatures Sunday

 - Cooler temperatures, beneficial rainfall, and isolated
   thunderstorms expected Monday through Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 935 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026
(Tonight through Monday)

Satellite imagery shows high clouds continuing to cover the Bay Area 
and Central Coast tonight, which are expected to continue to push 
through the region in the overnight period before steadily thinning 
and scattering Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight are expected 
to hover in the middle 40s to lower 50s across the region, perhaps a 
few degrees warmer than the current forecast if the high level cloud 
cover is enough to inhibit radiational cooling and reflect thermal 
energy back to the surface. 

Today will be a day of temperatures close to the seasonal averages, 
with the inland valleys reaching highs in the 70s, the Bays seeing 
highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s, and the Pacific coast hovering 
around the upper 50s to the lower 60s. A gentle onshore breeze with 
a southwesterly component will develop during the afternoon, with 
the breezy winds persisting into the night as a cold front 
approaches the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 935 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026
(Monday night through next Saturday)

The focus of the seven-day outlook continues to be centered around 
the cold front coming through the Bay Area and Central Coast for the 
early part of the work week. Pre-frontal rain showers are expected 
to arrive sometime Monday morning across the North Bay and continue 
to spread southward through the day, with the main frontal band 
coming through later on Monday into Tuesday morning. Behind the 
front, and with the associated upper level low coming through 
northern California, the newly arrived cold pool will allow for a 
chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Tuesday 
afternoon and evening, with probabilities ranging from around 20 to 
30 percent across the region. Lingering showers and chances for 
isolated thunderstorms (up to 15% probability) continue through 
Wednesday, and should move out of the region by Wednesday night. 
Through all of this, high temperatures will dip into the lower to 
middle 60s in the lower elevations to the 50s across the higher 
elevations, and rain totals will range from 0.5-1.5" across the 
interior valleys and most of the Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions, 
to around 1.5-3" in the coastal ranges and the interior mountains of 
the North Bay. This should be mostly beneficial across the region, 
but some minor nuisance flooding is possible in urban and poor 
drainage areas if heavy rain showers or thunderstorms develop. 

As the frontal system passes, temperatures will warm slightly into a 
rather dry latter part of the week, back to around the seasonal 
averages rather similar to today's highs. Extended guidance from the 
Climate Prediction Center leans towards temperatures and rain 
totals above seasonal averages for the last week of April. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Patchy coastal low clouds and fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ are developing 
this morning otherwise it's VFR. Sufficient mixing will result in 
VFR prevailing everywhere from later morning through afternoon. 
Clouds increase tonight and Monday morning with rain arriving along 
the immediate coast of the Bay Area Monday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. High clouds today, increasing clouds 
tonight and Monday morning with light rain arriving 12z through 
18z Monday. West wind 10 to 12 knots today, decreasing and 
becoming light southeast tonight and Monday morning. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. 

Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy coastal low clouds and fog /IFR-
LIFR/ otherwise VFR. High clouds today through late tonight and 
Monday morning. Light and variable winds becoming southwesterly 
except possibly northwesterly at KSNS from late morning through 
afternoon. Mainly light southeasterly winds tonight and Monday 
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Fresh southerly breezes will develop ahead of a slow moving cold
front through early week. Rain will accompany the cold front and
there is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday. Dry weather returns
late in the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt 
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Sun Apr 19 10:30:02 PDT 2026
From the National Weather Service