FXUS66 KMTR 301818
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1118 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1118 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

 - Dangerous currents and fast tidal swings will persist through
   today. These conditions are hazardous to those entering the
   ocean.

 - Seasonably mild weather pattern continues the next few days
   with night and morning low clouds followed by sunny afternoons. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Warmer and drier conditions continue with temperatures ranging 
from below normal to seasonal within the marine layer and seasonal
to slightly above normal in the higher elevations above the 
marine layer. No major changes to the overall forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 158 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025
(Today and tonight)

A weak upper level shortwave trough will continue to shift inland 
across the Bay Area and Central Coast through the morning hours. 
Steady, onshore zonal flow will set in behind the trough for the 
remainder of the work week. Low stratus clouds will linger most if 
not all day for many of our coastal areas with reduced mixing under 
the zonal flow aloft, and ample sunshine for inland areas away from 
the influence of the marine layer. Expect breezy onshore winds along 
the coast during the afternoon and evening hours with relatively 
light winds inland. When low stratus returns this evening it will 
penetrate a little farther inland than previous couple nights as the 
marine layer begins to increase and expand. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 158 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Reposted from previous forecast: Upper-level troughing to the north 
will drive steady onshore flow dominating our weather pattern 
through the first days of August, leading to a stable forecast with 
temperatures remaining near or slightly below the seasonal average, 
combined with cloudy mornings giving way to breezy afternoons and 
evenings. Towards the latter half of the week, increased moisture 
from a low currently near the Gulf of Alaska could result in 
enhanced overnight and morning stratus coverage, but aside from 
that, there would be no other changes to sensible weather impacts 
for the 7 day forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Summer like weather continues, as we see our nightly stratus surge
in and then retreat. MVFR cigs remain for some interior terminals,
though it should clear out within a few hours. For those along the
immediate coast MVFR to IFR conditions should hold. MVFR to IFR
cigs return late tonight and into the overnight hours. 

Vicinity of SFO...Current thinking is the forecast is rather
pessimistic for KSFO as satellite has not shown the progressive
trend that was hinted at prior. Latest hi-res guidance shows that
we may get a few reports of VFR conditions; however, confidence is
low in that actually occuring. Opted to put a TEMPO in place of
where that could occur, but should we fill in and not see any
reprieve around SFO that will be removed. If that is the case,
expect MVFR conditions likely holding through late tomorrow
morning. 

SFO Bridge Approach...SImilar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals....Cigs will slowly improve this afternoon 
with a longer period of afternoon VFR at KSNS. For KMRY, brief bouts 
of VFR are anticipated though there will remain a high enough 
potential for IFR to advertise intermittent MVFR this afternoon. 
After 00 UTC, marine stratus will surge through Monterey Bay with 
LIFR cigs anticipated after 03 UTC. Confidence is medium to high in 
the cig forecast. Occasional reductions in visibility due to BR 
cannot be discounted, but the overall TAF period will be dominated 
by +4SM. MVFR cigs are anticipated to return around 16-17 UTC on 
Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT 
     Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...CW

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Prepared by Boulder-Creek.com Weather at: Wed Jul 30 14:30:03 PDT 2025